About the Newsweek poll...
The current Big Media attempt to hoist up John Kerry's dead-weight political carcass and drag him past George W. Bush to the November 2nd finish line was as predictable finding skid marks in my light-colored boxer shorts on laundry day. And Big Media pollsters are leading the way.
The first to come out was Newsweek's, which showed Senator Kerry actually ahead (within the margin of error) 49%-47% - an eight-point surge since their survey of the previous week.
Impressive, eh? Eight points just from the President's slight slouching and exasperated facial expressions. Maybe a little too impressive, perhaps? But, hell, Al Gore sank himself on eye-rolling and rude sighing four years ago. Certainly not impossible, right?
Wrong. Or at the very least, highly unsubstantiated.
First, there was an eleven-point Democrat shift in professed party alliegence:
9/11 poll: Republican 39%, Democrat 30%, Independents 27%
10/2 poll: Democrat 36%, Republican 34%, Independents 27%
Not as egregious as the LA Times poll back in June that sampled 38% Dem/25% GOP to produce a seven-point Kerry lead, but fishy nonetheless.
Second, this poll was limited to the Pacific and Mountain time zones, which means that states such as Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, and the entire old south were not included.
Oak Leaf points out some additional day-glo obvious problems:
"While it is not problematic that it is 52% women and 48% men, it is problematic that the men who were surveyed support Kerry 47% to 45%. Not even Bob Dole did this poorly in 1996. This indicates that they undersampled Republican men. This would, incidentally, make sense in light of the fact that almost all of the sample was done on Friday. What are large swaths of Republican men doing on Friday nights in those red states in the fall? A. During the day they are working; B. During the evening they are at HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES!
"This, my friends, is the reason Kerry [appears here as being] in the lead. He has an insignificant lead among women and Independents...but he also has a similar lead among men. This is unheard of. The people who are sitting at home on Friday day and Friday evening are not a representative sample of the general American population."
And, for the record, I wasn't exactly popping champagne corks when Newsweek showed Bush up eleven points after the GOP convention. That's why I weight Big Media-affiliated surveys so lightly in my polling composite.
I also notice today that Gallup, which had the President fourteen-points ahead a scant ten days ago, now shows him and Kerry in a flat-footed 49-49 tie. And within a week of moveon.org publicly ripping them for "conservative bias," too.
My, how quickly the scales fell back upon their eyes.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen continues to show a three to four-point Bush lead, and the latest Battleground survey shows the President up seven.
Which just goes to illustrate why donks should be keeping the lids on their bubbly as well.
After all, they don't want it to be flat when it's time to drown their sorrows once again.
The first to come out was Newsweek's, which showed Senator Kerry actually ahead (within the margin of error) 49%-47% - an eight-point surge since their survey of the previous week.
Impressive, eh? Eight points just from the President's slight slouching and exasperated facial expressions. Maybe a little too impressive, perhaps? But, hell, Al Gore sank himself on eye-rolling and rude sighing four years ago. Certainly not impossible, right?
Wrong. Or at the very least, highly unsubstantiated.
First, there was an eleven-point Democrat shift in professed party alliegence:
9/11 poll: Republican 39%, Democrat 30%, Independents 27%
10/2 poll: Democrat 36%, Republican 34%, Independents 27%
Not as egregious as the LA Times poll back in June that sampled 38% Dem/25% GOP to produce a seven-point Kerry lead, but fishy nonetheless.
Second, this poll was limited to the Pacific and Mountain time zones, which means that states such as Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, and the entire old south were not included.
Oak Leaf points out some additional day-glo obvious problems:
"While it is not problematic that it is 52% women and 48% men, it is problematic that the men who were surveyed support Kerry 47% to 45%. Not even Bob Dole did this poorly in 1996. This indicates that they undersampled Republican men. This would, incidentally, make sense in light of the fact that almost all of the sample was done on Friday. What are large swaths of Republican men doing on Friday nights in those red states in the fall? A. During the day they are working; B. During the evening they are at HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES!
"This, my friends, is the reason Kerry [appears here as being] in the lead. He has an insignificant lead among women and Independents...but he also has a similar lead among men. This is unheard of. The people who are sitting at home on Friday day and Friday evening are not a representative sample of the general American population."
And, for the record, I wasn't exactly popping champagne corks when Newsweek showed Bush up eleven points after the GOP convention. That's why I weight Big Media-affiliated surveys so lightly in my polling composite.
I also notice today that Gallup, which had the President fourteen-points ahead a scant ten days ago, now shows him and Kerry in a flat-footed 49-49 tie. And within a week of moveon.org publicly ripping them for "conservative bias," too.
My, how quickly the scales fell back upon their eyes.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen continues to show a three to four-point Bush lead, and the latest Battleground survey shows the President up seven.
Which just goes to illustrate why donks should be keeping the lids on their bubbly as well.
After all, they don't want it to be flat when it's time to drown their sorrows once again.
posted by JASmius at 9:48 PM
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