The Fallout From "Going Nuclear"

John Podhoretz thinks that if Senate Republicans change the rules to ban judicial filibusters, and Minority Leader Harry Reid makes good on his threat to shut down the Senate altogether in retaliation, the Democrats will be committing "political suicide."

Minority Leader Harry Reid put it very frankly back in December: "If they, for whatever reason, decide to do this, it's not only wrong, they will rue the day they did it, because we will do whatever we can do to strike back. I know procedures around here. And I know that there will still be Senate business conducted. But I will, for lack of a better word, screw things up."

This threat is just about the only card Democrats have to play against the Republican action.

But if they actually follow through, they'll do themselves and their party great injury. Even though obstructionism is a vital weapon in a party's arsenal, it only works when it goes on below the radar.

The American people don't like it when politicians announce that they're going to see to it that nothing happens. Voters don't elect senators to do nothing....

If Reid's Democrats effectively shut down the Senate, they will open themselves up to the same criticism that the GOP received back in 1995. They too will be crosswise of a president — in this case, George W. Bush, who will be able to play the same "get back to work" card that Clinton played.

Sounds good on the surface, but it probably wouldn't work out that same way.

First, people forget that there were two government shutdowns at the end of 1995. The first was over whether or not there would be a balanced budget accord at all, and on that one public opinion was behind the Republicans. It was the second one, where Speaker Gingrich tried to force White House acceptance of a seven-year time frame, that backfired.

Second, remember that the Extreme Media was Clinton's active propaganda apparatus, mobilizing public opinion against Newt and the boys. If Senate Republicans ever actually do break the filibuster, the EM won't be backing this White House, and won't wait for the Dems to make good on Harry Reid's threat - they'll go even further into hysterical war mode, blaming everything from the shutdown to the heartbreak of psoriasis on the "right-wing extremists" who have "launched a coup de'tat against the independence of the Judiciary."

They'd also tie it in with their anti-Social Security private accounts campaign, warning that - take your pick - the elderly won't get their pension checks, the sick won't get their medicine, children will starve, all because the "GOP abuse of power."

True, the EM no longer has a monopoly on news dissemination, and the blogosphere is out there to help balance things out. But as we saw in the Terri Schiavo climax, the EM still has the upper hand in shaping public perceptions, at least in the short term.

Third, whether EM distortions would be countered and corrected in the longer term would depend entirely on whether Republicans, from the White House on down, got back into a combat mindset or remained in their normal state of dormancy. Such a temper tantrum on the Dems' part could certainly be turned against them, but only if our side reverts to, and stays in, campaign mode. Otherwise the only message the public will get will be from the Donk war room, and, unchallenged, it will become the conventional wisdom, and the GOP will be in the equivalent trouble in '06 that they'll be in if they don't go with the Byrd option.

Of course, this whole scenario is predicated upon Bill Frist pulling the trigger in the first place, a step that, at this point, I'll believe only when I see it. But if it does finally happen, and the Democrats go up like a collectiv(ist) Roman candle, it can still backfire on the GOP if they forget, yet again, that this is a permanent campaign that from which they cannot retire after individual skirmishes.

Even the lamest deception can become the conventional wisdom of left unchallenged.

And if Fristy & Co. have been out-generalled by Harry Reid, a man who, apart from a like dearth of ethics and integrity, is about as un-Clintillian as one can get, then it is frankly impossible to overestimate their potential for pulling defeat from the jaws of as slam-dunk a victory as this one should be.

There's only one way to restore grassroots confidence, gents: pull that damned trigger.

And then get ready for the fur to fly.