New Yorkers Don't Read Political History
If they did, they wouldn't produce polling results like this.
Fifteen years ago Arkansas voters felt pretty much the same way about their governor at the time. You know the guy, kind of a hybrid of Huckleberry Finn, Snidely Whiplash, and Dirk Diggler. Anyway, concerns about this governor running for president in 1992 and abandoning his third consecutive full term in Little Rock were sufficient to make it an issue in his 1990 gubernatorial re-election bid. So he took the pledge the polls said the people wanted him to take: he solemnly promised, if re-elected, to serve out his third term as governor.
So the voters re-elected him. And he promptly hurled that solemn promise overboard and ran for president anyway. And won, including carrying his home state of Arkansas.
For people who think that New York is "more sophisticated" than the Razorback state, just watch their junior senator's re-election campaign over the next year and a half. History is going to repeat itself down to the last jot and tittle.
Hillary will promise to serve out her second term in the Senate right up until she actually wins it. Then she'll disappear from the Capitol so thoroughly as to make John Kerry look like he keeps a cot in his office, and be off and running for another four year lease on the big shack at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.
And despite this....
...she'll carry New York in a blowout against whatever Republican dares oppose her.
There's a vast difference between thinking a candidate shouldn't run for president and opposing that candidate once their hat is in the ring. And Hillary knows that.
Do New York voters?
Only if they're willing to learn the wisdom of the Ozarks.
Voters in largely Democratic New York State overwhelmingly support Senator Hillary Clinton's 2006 re-election bid - but only if she promises to serve out her full six-year-term and not run for president in 2008.
Pollsters for Quinnipiac University asked registered voters in New York: "If Hillary Rodham Clinton runs for reelection to the Senate in 2006, do you think she should pledge to serve the full 6 year term or not?"
By a margin of 2 to 1 - 60% to 30% - New Yorkers told Quinnipaic that Hillary should take the pledge and not try to reclaim the Oval Office in 2008.
Fifteen years ago Arkansas voters felt pretty much the same way about their governor at the time. You know the guy, kind of a hybrid of Huckleberry Finn, Snidely Whiplash, and Dirk Diggler. Anyway, concerns about this governor running for president in 1992 and abandoning his third consecutive full term in Little Rock were sufficient to make it an issue in his 1990 gubernatorial re-election bid. So he took the pledge the polls said the people wanted him to take: he solemnly promised, if re-elected, to serve out his third term as governor.
So the voters re-elected him. And he promptly hurled that solemn promise overboard and ran for president anyway. And won, including carrying his home state of Arkansas.
For people who think that New York is "more sophisticated" than the Razorback state, just watch their junior senator's re-election campaign over the next year and a half. History is going to repeat itself down to the last jot and tittle.
Hillary will promise to serve out her second term in the Senate right up until she actually wins it. Then she'll disappear from the Capitol so thoroughly as to make John Kerry look like he keeps a cot in his office, and be off and running for another four year lease on the big shack at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.
And despite this....
Even if Mrs. Clinton doesn't run for re-election in 2006, New Yorkers give her presidential ambitions a thumbs-down, with 51% telling Quinnipiac she shouldn't run in 2008. Just 41% said she should.
...she'll carry New York in a blowout against whatever Republican dares oppose her.
There's a vast difference between thinking a candidate shouldn't run for president and opposing that candidate once their hat is in the ring. And Hillary knows that.
Do New York voters?
Only if they're willing to learn the wisdom of the Ozarks.
posted by JASmius at 11:08 PM
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