Bin Laden's Mein Kampf

It wasn't in book form, but a captured "inter-jihadi memo" from OBL's XO, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to al Qaeda's self-appointed Iraqi "emir," Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has not only highlighted Zawahiri's rebuke of Zarqawi for his grisly, counter-productive attacks against Iraqi Shias, but also provided the Coalition important insight into the planning and long-range thinking of the terrorists - and their ambitions extend much further than just "the land of the Chaldeans":

The United States has obtained a letter from Osama bin Laden's deputy to the leader of Iraq's insurgency that outlines a long-term strategic vision for a global jihad, with the next phase of the war to be taken into Egypt, Syria and Lebanon, according to U.S. officials. ...

The letter of instructions and requests outlines a four-stage plan, according to officials: First, expel American forces from Iraq. Second, establish a caliphate over as much of Iraq as possible. Third, extend the jihad to neighboring countries, with specific reference to Egypt and the Levant - a term that describes Syria and Lebanon. And finally, war against Israel. ...

But bin Laden's deputy also purportedly makes clear that the war would not end with an American withdrawal and that anything other than religious rule in Iraq would be dangerous.

"And it is that the Mujaheddin must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons, and silence the fighting zeal. We will return to having the secularists and traitors holding sway over us," the letter reportedly says.

None of this is really surprising upon any degree of reflection. al Qaeda has been trying to establish a Sunni version of Iran for over a decade now. They've enjoyed limited success in Somalia, Sudan, and Afghanistan, but these were all essentially anarchous countries with no organized central government. The terrorists were basically squatters at each stop and were never able to fully establish the Islamic Caliphate they dream of.

Small wonder, then, that Zawahiri is trying to nix Zarqawi's attempt to spark an Iraqi civil war. Not only would it become just another lawless battleground over which al Qaeda would be unable to impose absolute control, but the majority of the population - Shia Muslims - would detest their would-be rulers who have warred against them and who would have thrown their country into chaos.

But that, in turn, speaks to the daunting task confronting OBL and friends. "Expelling the Americans" may be just the first step, but it's a lulu, as they say. They thought it would be easy - just blow up a few convoys, generated a few hundred casualties, and we'd cut and run like we always do. Isn't that what happened in Somalia? And Lebanon? So why not in Iraq? Piece 'o cake, right?

Wrong. We've stayed, even as the casualty total has risen into the thousands. They're unable to drive us out, which is why Zarqawi has resorted to attacking his fellow Muslims in order to destablize Iraq that way. And we still haven't departed.

Now if I were advising Zarqawi, I would have him stop the "insurgency" altogether, let the democratization process that he hasn't been able to stop or even slow down anyway progress, and infiltrate the newly-established political process instead. That way the American leave - heck, even the Bushies are nakedly open about their desire to get out of there as soon as possible - and then al Qaeda can gut the new government from within, or decapitate it, or just relaunch the "insurgency" and voila! - the Caliphate becomes reality.

Hey, a variation on same worked for the mullahs next door. And an ounce of guile is worth a thousand IEDs.

But then, an ounce of guile would have made Zawahiri think twice about sending this letter to Zarqawi, too. Not only for running the risk that if it fell into U.S. hands it would rebolster President Bush's case for staying and getting the job done, but in including Syria on al Qaeda's target list. The Assad regime is aiding the "insurgency," for Allah's sake; why take the chance of alienating your primary tactical sponsor and jeopardizing your untouched sanctuary from Coalition forces?

It just reinforces the reality that, in Iraq at least, the enemy's cause is hopeless - but only to the degree of Americans' determination to continue the fight to its finish. bin Laden, in other words, cannot win unless we allow it.

And on that front - for now - George Bush is still holding firm.

[HT: CQ]