Morning After Election Caveat

After the Democrats are finished getting falling up/standing down hammered in celebration of their gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia yesterday, and if they ever manage to sober up, they need to look at things from a bit more sober of a perspective, to wit:

1) Both of those victories were holds, not gains, and the GOP only had a shot at one of them (Virginia) and blew that one far more than the Dems can legitimately claim to have captured it - or, in plain, non-Vulcan English, they dodged a bullet.

2) They didn't capture the New York City mayoralty, which will remain in (nominally) GOP hands for at least sixteen consecutive years.

3) The only thing about which they can credibly crow was the skunking that the Governator's ballot initiatives took in California and the blow that delivered to his prestige. Now all they have to do is find a challenger for next year who is both as credible and charismatic as Ah-nuld still is.

Rotsa ruck, guys.

Oh, and one more:

4) The same results took place four years ago - worse, actually, since the GOP lost the Virginia governorship last time instead of merely failing to regain it. And how many seats in either house of Congress did the Donks gain the following November?

I'm sorry...what was that? They lost seats instead?

If George Santayana knew what he was talking about, the Democrats' partying just might be a wee bit premature.

UPDATE: Speaking of which, here's a summary of John Miller's take on how next year's competitive Senate elections are looking twelve months out (which is worth just as much as it sounds):

REPUBLICAN RETENTIONS:

Kyl (AZ)
Lott (MS)
Talent (MO)
Burns (MT)
Ensign (NV)
DeWine (OH)
Frist (open seat) (TN)
Allen (VA)


DEMOCRAT RETENTIONS:

Feinstein (CA)
Nelson (FL)
Sarbanes (open seat) (MD)
Stabenow (MI)
Nelson (NE)
Bingaman (NM)
Rodham (NY)
Conrad (ND)
Jeffords (open seat) (VT)
Cantwell (WA)
Byrd (WV)
Kohl (WI)

REPUBLICAN PICKUPS

Dayton (open seat) (MN) - replaced by current Representative Mark Kennedy


DEMOCRAT PICKUPS

None


TOSS-UPS

Korzine (open seat) (NJ)
Santorum (PA)
Chafee (RI)

Predicted net 2006 result: indeterminate

And now, for your light reading pleasure, here is my version, only without the punts:

REPUBLICAN RETENTIONS:

Kyl (AZ)
Lott (MS)
Talent (MO)
Burns (MT)
Ensign (NV)
Allen (VA)


DEMOCRAT RETENTIONS:

Feinstein (CA)
Stabenow (MI)
Nelson (NE)
Bingaman (NM)
Rodham (NY)
Conrad (ND)
Jeffords (open seat) (VT)
Cantwell (WA)
Byrd (WV)
Kohl (WI)


REPUBLICAN PICKUPS:

Nelson (FL) - replaced by current Representative Katherine Harris

Sarbanes (open seat) (MD) - replaced by current Lieutenant-Governor Michael Steele

Dayton (open seat) (MN) - replaced by current Representative Mark Kennedy

Korzine (open seat) (NJ) - replaced by Tom Keane, Jr.


DEMOCRAT PICKUPS:

DeWine (OH) - replaced by former congressional candidate Paul Hackett (if he runs; but even if he doesn't it's hard to see DeWine winning)

Frist (open seat) (TN) - replaced by Representative Harold Ford
Santorum (PA) - replaced by State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.
Chafee (RI) - either via replacement or Jeffordsonian defection

Predicted net 2006 result: a wash.

Which, all things considered, wouldn't be all that bad. Still, with a failure to recruit and/or position top-tier challengers taking anywhere from three (Nelson of Nebraska, Conrad, Kohl) to six (Stabenow, Bingaman, Byrd) additional Dem seats out of contention, the GOP is in the unusually pre-emptive position of wondering what might have been - and the more accustomed position of wishing those additional seats-in-play were available as a cushion should the tide run against them next year.

Kind of reminiscent of 1998 (another wash) and what followed in 2000 (a four seat loss), actually.

Here's hoping Hillary doesn't have coattails in '08.