Republican Resurgence Reloaded

John Miller follows up my analysis of the recent Battleground Survey of competitive Senate races at NRO today (in a matter of speaking). Here's his bare-boned synopsis (with my lean on his toss-ups).

LIKELY GOP RETENTION:

John Kyl (AZ)
John Ensign (NV)
George Allen (VA)

LEANING GOP RETENTION:

Conrad Burns (MT)
Mike DeWine (OH)
Bill Frist (TN - open seat)

TOSS-UPS:

Mark Dayton (MN - open seat) - [Mark Kennedy - GOP pickup]
Jim Talent (MO) - [Talent squeaks out another one - GOP retention]
Bob Menendez (NJ) - [Tom Kean rides Jon Korzine's negative coattails to victory - GOP pickup]
Rick Santorum (PA) - [RS has to catch Bob Casey before I'll be convinced - Dem pickup]
Lincoln Chafee (RI) - [If Chafee wins GOP primary, he wins; if Steve Laffey wins GOP primary, Sheldon Whitehouse wins; either way, the GOP loses - Dem pickup]

LEANING DEM RETENTION:

Paul Sarbanes (MD - open seat)
Debbie Stabenow (MI)
Maria Cantwell (WA)

LIKELY DEM RETENTION:

Joe Lieberman (CT)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Ben Nelson (NE)
Hillary (NY)
Jim Jeffords (VT - open seat)
Bob Byrd (WV)

End result per (mostly) Miller? Same as mine - a wash. The Republicans pick up Minnesota and New Jersey, and the Dems pick up Pennsylvania and Rhode Island (no matter who wins the GOP primary). Republican net gains are thwarted by their failure to recruit better candidates in North Dakota, Nebraska, Florida, Washington, and Wisconsin, and Dem net gains are thwarted by the fact that the whole lot of 'em are loonier than a parapalegic Ethiopian watching a doughnut roll down a hill.

That's a whole lot of commotion for a stalemate. But I doubt Ken Mehlman and Liddy Dole will be complaining on November 9th.