Washington: Never Mind
It's that time of biennium again where I report the aggregate partisan outcomes of my state's senatorial and congressional primary elections and forecast the general election outcomes therein.
When I did this twelve years ago, Washington was a harbinger of that year's GOP earthquake. Incumbent Senator Slade Gorton won the only non-photo-finish campaign of his political career, blowing out King County Executive Ron Sims. And the congressional delegation went from 8-1 Donk to 7-2 Republican. My predictive post was entitled "Washington: The Fuse" and the post-election recap was dubbed "Washington: The Explosion."
As Captain Kirk said to Captain Picard in the Nexus in Star Trek Generations, "Not this time."
US SENATE: Maria Cantwell (D) 57.8%, Mike McGavick (R) 42.8%
I've never really understood why this has been considered a "competitive" race. Washington might as well be renamed "North California." I doubt even legendary Republican icon Dan Evans could be competitive statewide these days, much less a guy that, let's face it, nobody has ever heard of (and who is now known for his 1993 DUI more than anything else).
Yeah, I've got his banner on my sidebar. I'll vote for him. But he's got no shot, and never did.
US HOUSE (#1): Jay Inslee (D) 65.7%, Larry Ishmael (R) 34.3%
Inslee, just as a reminder, was once the representative from Washington's 4th congressional district for a single term (that ended in, you guessed it, 1994). The 4th - where I grew up - is conservative, down-to-earth, and no-nonsense. Small wonder a guy who got elected in '92 mainly by publicity stunts like doing jumping-jacks on Wenatchee's George Sellars bridge didn't last.
But he did know how to carpet-bag, and shopped around for a district that would embrace his BS. He found one four years later, at Republican Rick White's expense, and has been entrenched north of Seattle like a weed ever since.
US HOUSE (#2): Rick Larsen (D) 58.7%, Doug Roulstone (R) 41.3%
There's not much personal to criticize about Larsen. Aside from that, his district is a lot like Inslee's, having elected GOP representative Jack Metcalf (a man who'd been trying to win this seat for years prior to 1994) and stuck with him until he retired in 2000. It reverted back to the Dems by a narrow margin that year, and now you couldn't dynamite Larsen out if this slot.
Not that Republicans seem to be trying all that hard.
US HOUSE (#3): Brian Baird (D) 62.6%, Michael Massmore (R) 37.4%
The 3rd includes the state capitol of Olympia, which means it could include Havana and not be more left-wing. Makes it all the more remarkable that GOP "maverick" Linda Smith managed to hold this seat for two terms.
US HOUSE (#4): Doc Hastings (R) 72.8%, Richard Wright (D) 27.2%
Home, sweet home. And indicative of why I lean the way I do.
US HOUSE (#5): Cathy McMorris (R) 58.9%, Peter Goldmark (D) 41.1%
George Nethercutt's hand-picked successor is doing quite well for herself. Thanks to her the 5th is the only district taken by the GOP in 1994 (along with the 4th) that has not reverted back to a revolting shade of "blue".
US HOUSE (#6): Norm Dicks (D) 67.4%, Doug Cloud (R) 32.6%
I'd never vote for Norm Dicks, but if all Democrats were as moderate and reasonable and Scoop Jacksonesque as he is, I wouldn't detest them (in a partisan way), either. Besides, he even looks like George Wendt.
US HOUSE (#7): Jim McDermott (D) 87.3%, Steve Baren (R) 12.7%
The challenger's surname aptly describes his November chances in this Bolshevik Seattle-centric district, where committing federal crimes (remember Tapegate?) and making propaganda broadcasts for the enemy in time of war (remember McDermott popping up in pre-invasion Baghdad to shill on Saddam Hussein's behalf ?) aren't enough to get a Democrat cashiered.
US HOUSE (#8): Darcy Burner (D) 50.7%, Dave Reichert (R) 49.3%
My district has to be the only one that actually is competitive. The only district not to fall to the Dems in 1992, held through highs, lows, hell, and high water by the now-retired Jennifer Dunn, we may be on the brink of paying the price for nominating so weak a candidate as the former King County sheriff two years ago. Reichert has not distinguished himself in DC, becoming most prominent for helping to sabotage last year's ANWR bill last November. Hard to see what's going to motivate GOPers to turn out in the proportions that would make up the incumbent's narrow deficit.
On the other hand, I didn't vote in the primary since nothing was at stake, so perhaps that factor will scare up the 1,289 extra votes Reichert will need. But if so, he still will not have earned it.
US HOUSE (#9): Adam Smith (D) 62.3%, Steven Cofchin (R) 37.6%
The 9th was the first district to revert back after the 1994 GOP landslide, thanks mostly to over a million dollars worth of Big Labor hit ads that politically emasculated the hapless Randy Tate. That opened the door for the Clintonian (with his pants up and zipped) faux "moderate" Adam Smith, who is middle-of-the-road only in his image and demeanor. Unfortunately that makes him a good fit for this district, since he's held the seat ever since.
No statewide races this year, so that wraps it up. Kudos if you stayed awake throughout the crushingly dull narrative. Take it as a sign of the depth of my writing talent. And be thankful you don't vote here.
For the rest of you, there's always the scroll button.
When I did this twelve years ago, Washington was a harbinger of that year's GOP earthquake. Incumbent Senator Slade Gorton won the only non-photo-finish campaign of his political career, blowing out King County Executive Ron Sims. And the congressional delegation went from 8-1 Donk to 7-2 Republican. My predictive post was entitled "Washington: The Fuse" and the post-election recap was dubbed "Washington: The Explosion."
As Captain Kirk said to Captain Picard in the Nexus in Star Trek Generations, "Not this time."
US SENATE: Maria Cantwell (D) 57.8%, Mike McGavick (R) 42.8%
I've never really understood why this has been considered a "competitive" race. Washington might as well be renamed "North California." I doubt even legendary Republican icon Dan Evans could be competitive statewide these days, much less a guy that, let's face it, nobody has ever heard of (and who is now known for his 1993 DUI more than anything else).
Yeah, I've got his banner on my sidebar. I'll vote for him. But he's got no shot, and never did.
US HOUSE (#1): Jay Inslee (D) 65.7%, Larry Ishmael (R) 34.3%
Inslee, just as a reminder, was once the representative from Washington's 4th congressional district for a single term (that ended in, you guessed it, 1994). The 4th - where I grew up - is conservative, down-to-earth, and no-nonsense. Small wonder a guy who got elected in '92 mainly by publicity stunts like doing jumping-jacks on Wenatchee's George Sellars bridge didn't last.
But he did know how to carpet-bag, and shopped around for a district that would embrace his BS. He found one four years later, at Republican Rick White's expense, and has been entrenched north of Seattle like a weed ever since.
US HOUSE (#2): Rick Larsen (D) 58.7%, Doug Roulstone (R) 41.3%
There's not much personal to criticize about Larsen. Aside from that, his district is a lot like Inslee's, having elected GOP representative Jack Metcalf (a man who'd been trying to win this seat for years prior to 1994) and stuck with him until he retired in 2000. It reverted back to the Dems by a narrow margin that year, and now you couldn't dynamite Larsen out if this slot.
Not that Republicans seem to be trying all that hard.
US HOUSE (#3): Brian Baird (D) 62.6%, Michael Massmore (R) 37.4%
The 3rd includes the state capitol of Olympia, which means it could include Havana and not be more left-wing. Makes it all the more remarkable that GOP "maverick" Linda Smith managed to hold this seat for two terms.
US HOUSE (#4): Doc Hastings (R) 72.8%, Richard Wright (D) 27.2%
Home, sweet home. And indicative of why I lean the way I do.
US HOUSE (#5): Cathy McMorris (R) 58.9%, Peter Goldmark (D) 41.1%
George Nethercutt's hand-picked successor is doing quite well for herself. Thanks to her the 5th is the only district taken by the GOP in 1994 (along with the 4th) that has not reverted back to a revolting shade of "blue".
US HOUSE (#6): Norm Dicks (D) 67.4%, Doug Cloud (R) 32.6%
I'd never vote for Norm Dicks, but if all Democrats were as moderate and reasonable and Scoop Jacksonesque as he is, I wouldn't detest them (in a partisan way), either. Besides, he even looks like George Wendt.
US HOUSE (#7): Jim McDermott (D) 87.3%, Steve Baren (R) 12.7%
The challenger's surname aptly describes his November chances in this Bolshevik Seattle-centric district, where committing federal crimes (remember Tapegate?) and making propaganda broadcasts for the enemy in time of war (remember McDermott popping up in pre-invasion Baghdad to shill on Saddam Hussein's behalf ?) aren't enough to get a Democrat cashiered.
US HOUSE (#8): Darcy Burner (D) 50.7%, Dave Reichert (R) 49.3%
My district has to be the only one that actually is competitive. The only district not to fall to the Dems in 1992, held through highs, lows, hell, and high water by the now-retired Jennifer Dunn, we may be on the brink of paying the price for nominating so weak a candidate as the former King County sheriff two years ago. Reichert has not distinguished himself in DC, becoming most prominent for helping to sabotage last year's ANWR bill last November. Hard to see what's going to motivate GOPers to turn out in the proportions that would make up the incumbent's narrow deficit.
On the other hand, I didn't vote in the primary since nothing was at stake, so perhaps that factor will scare up the 1,289 extra votes Reichert will need. But if so, he still will not have earned it.
US HOUSE (#9): Adam Smith (D) 62.3%, Steven Cofchin (R) 37.6%
The 9th was the first district to revert back after the 1994 GOP landslide, thanks mostly to over a million dollars worth of Big Labor hit ads that politically emasculated the hapless Randy Tate. That opened the door for the Clintonian (with his pants up and zipped) faux "moderate" Adam Smith, who is middle-of-the-road only in his image and demeanor. Unfortunately that makes him a good fit for this district, since he's held the seat ever since.
No statewide races this year, so that wraps it up. Kudos if you stayed awake throughout the crushingly dull narrative. Take it as a sign of the depth of my writing talent. And be thankful you don't vote here.
For the rest of you, there's always the scroll button.
posted by JASmius at 10:04 AM
<<< Home