Bounce Like A Superball?
There appears to be a growing grassroots anticipation (doubtless much to the consternation of Bush “strategerists”) that George W. Bush is going to get a healthy bounce coming out of his convention.
Dick Morris, the first such voice, kept it up today:
Being a robust partisan Republican, I’d like to believe this. But not wanting to just take such proclamations at face value, I decided to dig back into the polling of the past few months and crunch the numbers for myself.
I began with the first significant event of the campaign – the death and state funeral of former President Ronald Reagan.
On June 5th, the date the Gipper went home to be with the LORD, my polling composite had Bush trailing Kerry by a point and a half (44.5%-43.0%). Two weeks later, after the state funeral and after Dutch was laid to rest, Bush had surged to a little over a four-point lead (45.7%-41.5%), or a bounce of not quite six points.
By July 6th, when Senator Kerry announced Opie Edwards as his running mate, about four-fifths of that bounce had dissipated (Kerry 46.1%, Bush 45.7%). That announcement boosted him a couple of points (of which he lost about two-thirds because he inserted three weeks between it and his convention), as did the Boston Bacchanalia. Lurch thus wheezed into August with about a three-point lead (47%-44%).
The denuding of Kerry’s Vietnam bio fraud cost him that net veep/convention bounce, bringing us to the beginning of the GOP convention with the race in an almost exact tie (Kerry 44.2%, Bush 44.1%).
It should be noted that this really isn’t a “pre-convention bounce” for Dubya, but rather a mini-collapse for Kerry. It’s still up to the President to sweep those once-more undecideds, and their comrades, into his own column. And if Monday’s program (Senator McCain did yeoman work in his speech, and Rudy was absolutely on fire – more on that in Tuesday’s blog) and what’s rumored for Zell Miller’s keynote address (tearing Kerry limb from limb on his Senate record) are any indication – and that’s not counting the Governator on Tuesday – if the President’s address slam dunks the proceedings home, he should get a bounce at least as big as he did back in June. That would give him roughly a six-point lead as of September 10th.
The significance of that date needs no explanation, and heralds what the aforementioned Mr. Morris refers to as “the third convention,” the commemoration of the 9/11 attacks. What makes it interesting for our purposes here is in how the timing of the GOP convention stands to, in effect, make part of Dubya’s post-convention bounce permanent.
If you figure that the President’s convention bounce fades like his June surge did, he’d lose two and a half points or so over the ensuing two weeks. But at least a week of that, and perhaps two, is offset by the 9/11 remembrance. This would put Bush up by the eight-to-ten point range that Mr. Morris envisions by mid-late September.
Assume the same tightening from there and we head into the debate period with GDub ahead by mid-single digits, Kerry still under fire on his Vietnam record (assuming he doesn’t come to his senses and try some sort of mea culpa – a safe assumption if I’ve ever heard one) and unable to mount much of a surge beyond that without a major Bush gaffe or policy reversal. The President coasts home to a second term from there.
Of course, the alternative course of events is that the President’s “misstatements” of the past few days on Iraq and terrorism blow up in his face and change the dynamic and tide of the race back to Kerry, or at least muddle things such as to make the outcome completely unpredictable.
Here’s hoping that (1) Bush won’t bumble, stumble, and fumble through his convention speech and (2) it will carry more weight with the electorate than the brain farts of two (hopefully) obscure interviews.
Now the Bush operatives claim that don't expect their campaign to get a bounce from the Republicans' own convention this week. This is surely wise strategy, as it will both keep them from looking like fools and prevent the base from feeling disappointed if no bounce materializes. Yet it is also not very believable. Most of the important factors increasingly point to a Bush bounce after the convention.
Dick Morris, the first such voice, kept it up today:
If Bush uses his convention skillfully to highlight his homeland-security record and uses Senator Zell Miller, his keynoter, to attack Kerry's Senate record, he should emerge in great shape.
After four days of Republican rhetoric, it is not fanciful to hope that Bush ends up with an 8- to 10-point margin over Kerry — 52-53% for Bush vs. 43-44% for Kerry.
After the convention? Expect the lead to shrink a bit in the early days of September, but to grow to robust proportions again when the "third convention" is held — the anniversary of 9/11.
Spurred by the emotion and patriotism that will surround this grim annual event, Bush will probably take a good size lead into the debates that begin in mid-September and run until early October.
Being a robust partisan Republican, I’d like to believe this. But not wanting to just take such proclamations at face value, I decided to dig back into the polling of the past few months and crunch the numbers for myself.
I began with the first significant event of the campaign – the death and state funeral of former President Ronald Reagan.
On June 5th, the date the Gipper went home to be with the LORD, my polling composite had Bush trailing Kerry by a point and a half (44.5%-43.0%). Two weeks later, after the state funeral and after Dutch was laid to rest, Bush had surged to a little over a four-point lead (45.7%-41.5%), or a bounce of not quite six points.
By July 6th, when Senator Kerry announced Opie Edwards as his running mate, about four-fifths of that bounce had dissipated (Kerry 46.1%, Bush 45.7%). That announcement boosted him a couple of points (of which he lost about two-thirds because he inserted three weeks between it and his convention), as did the Boston Bacchanalia. Lurch thus wheezed into August with about a three-point lead (47%-44%).
The denuding of Kerry’s Vietnam bio fraud cost him that net veep/convention bounce, bringing us to the beginning of the GOP convention with the race in an almost exact tie (Kerry 44.2%, Bush 44.1%).
It should be noted that this really isn’t a “pre-convention bounce” for Dubya, but rather a mini-collapse for Kerry. It’s still up to the President to sweep those once-more undecideds, and their comrades, into his own column. And if Monday’s program (Senator McCain did yeoman work in his speech, and Rudy was absolutely on fire – more on that in Tuesday’s blog) and what’s rumored for Zell Miller’s keynote address (tearing Kerry limb from limb on his Senate record) are any indication – and that’s not counting the Governator on Tuesday – if the President’s address slam dunks the proceedings home, he should get a bounce at least as big as he did back in June. That would give him roughly a six-point lead as of September 10th.
The significance of that date needs no explanation, and heralds what the aforementioned Mr. Morris refers to as “the third convention,” the commemoration of the 9/11 attacks. What makes it interesting for our purposes here is in how the timing of the GOP convention stands to, in effect, make part of Dubya’s post-convention bounce permanent.
If you figure that the President’s convention bounce fades like his June surge did, he’d lose two and a half points or so over the ensuing two weeks. But at least a week of that, and perhaps two, is offset by the 9/11 remembrance. This would put Bush up by the eight-to-ten point range that Mr. Morris envisions by mid-late September.
Assume the same tightening from there and we head into the debate period with GDub ahead by mid-single digits, Kerry still under fire on his Vietnam record (assuming he doesn’t come to his senses and try some sort of mea culpa – a safe assumption if I’ve ever heard one) and unable to mount much of a surge beyond that without a major Bush gaffe or policy reversal. The President coasts home to a second term from there.
Of course, the alternative course of events is that the President’s “misstatements” of the past few days on Iraq and terrorism blow up in his face and change the dynamic and tide of the race back to Kerry, or at least muddle things such as to make the outcome completely unpredictable.
Here’s hoping that (1) Bush won’t bumble, stumble, and fumble through his convention speech and (2) it will carry more weight with the electorate than the brain farts of two (hopefully) obscure interviews.
posted by JASmius at 4:04 PM
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