Wednesday, February 09, 2005

57% & Rising

See what can happen when you know you're right and have the balls to stay the course?

President Bush's popularity ratings have climbed to their highest level in a year, mostly due to the successful elections in Iraq and optimism stemming from the President's State of the Union address.

According to a new USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll, Bush's job approval stands at 57%, the highest since U.S. forces captured Saddam Hussein in [December 2003].

The new numbers are definitely an improvement from the election season, said the Washington Times, which noted that Bush "had the worst job-approval numbers of any re-elected president since World War II."

Gallup showed the president with only a 48% job approval rating, coupled with a Time magazine poll showing only 49%. Now, however, the President's popularity has rebounded, as has the public's opinion of his actions and goals.

In fact, according to USA Today, "majorities now say that going to war in Iraq was not a mistake, that things are going well there and that it's likely democracy will be established in Iraq."

And they said it couldn't be done!

Call it the "bandwagon effect." What's the saying? "Success has a thousand fathers, but failure is an orphan." I, however, call it "leadership."

George W. Bush had a vision, and he never wavered from it. For a year and a half, including right through his re-election campaign, he was trashed, assailed, belittled, ridiculed, eviscerated, and constantly urged to backtrack, retreat, bug out, cut & run. "They" said it was folly to hand sovereignty back to the Iraqis last June 30th; "they" said elections would never work in Afghanistan last October; "they" said Iraq wasn't ready for democracy, there was too much violence and "chaos" (one of "their" favorite terms), the "insurgency" was too strong, and elections, if they would ever work, would have to be indefinitely postponed.

That relentless diet of Big Media negativism, and the President's failure to counter it for a full ten months between May 2003 and March 2004, is what drove down his poll numbers and made last year's presidential election so much closer than it otherwise would have been.

Yet Bush stayed the course and never took his eyes off the prize. And he was re-elected. And the Iraqi elections were held, and they were a smashing success. And the "summer soldiers and sunshine patriots" are starting to trickle back into the fold.

Yes, ladies and gents, this is vindication. But you'll notice that the President is neither gloating nor sitting on his laurels. He's already barreling down the road on Social Security reform, and the Democrats still can't catch up with him:

Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that support for private investment skews dramatically by age group. Those aged 18 to 29 back it by 65% to 22%. Thirtysomething voters support it by 63-28; those in their 40s, 59-30.

But voters between the ages of 50 and 64 oppose the private-investment option by 49-41, and those over 65, by 63-27.

So the only voters who oppose private investment are those whom the reforms won't touch. Those for whom the changes are real, generally support them.

The toe-sucker's conclusion?

Bush has succeeded in anesthetizing the Social Security debate: His proposed changes will stir passion only in the breasts of ideologues of each stripe, but not in the voters most affected. Which means his program is likely to pass despite dire Democratic warnings.

And when it does, and he holds his historic photo-op bill-signing ceremony, his approval numbers will shoot upward again. Or, as White House pollster Matt Dowd put it, "Nothing breeds success like success."

And success starts with a vision, confident faith, and the commitment to stay the course.

A big set of grapefruits doesn't hurt, either.