Anybody But Harris

According to this AP report, the Bushies are still trying to shaft Representative and announced senatorial candidate Katherine Harris - and they've got a more high-powered substitute in mind:

Two local businessmen active in Republican Party politics say the GOP is courting cable TV host Joe Scarborough to replace U.S. Representative Katherine Harris in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson.

Scarborough, a former U.S. representative, has met with senior Republican officials, Collier Merrill, a Pensacola businessman, told the Pensacola News Journal in a report for Wednesday's editions.

Scarborough would certainly be an improvement on Allan Bense. In his time in the House of Representatives he sported a 95 ACU rating, so he's no centrist squish. And you don't get your own cable talk show if you're boring, even if it is on a channel nobody watches, so charisma and name recognition wouldn't be an issue.

The caveat is that Ms. Harris isn't going to step aside this time. And that would mean a needlessly bruising primary fight that could only help the vulnerable Donk incumbent, Bill Nelson.

I don't know if these "senior Republican officials" have polling data showing Scarborough doing significantly better against Nelson than Harris is. I haven't seen that reported anywhere, though if it were so the difference would have to be huge in order to matter fifteen months out from the '06 midterms.

In the absence of such a disparity I have to question the White House's almost pathological animus against Representative Harris. It's almost as if they're trying to sabotage her candidacy by any means necessary just to prove their point that she can't win.

And according to David Hill, her former pollster, she most definitely can:

Harris’s advantages start with her celebrity status, coupled with the low expectations that surround her bid. Let’s face it: Voters today are more interested in celebrities than in politicians. More Americans read People than Time. More people follow American Idol than C-SPAN’s Road to the White House.

Celebrity commands attention. When Katherine Harris comes to town, people will want to get in on the action. And because of the nature of criticism that the media have aimed at Harris, people will expect her to disappoint.

But when voters see Katherine as she really is — a smart, vivacious and engaging woman — they will be shocked. Pleasantly shocked. There is no way that Katherine Harris won’t exceed expectations, and that’s a major plus. [emphases added]

A moderately conservative Republican utterly savaged on a regular basis by the Extreme press, about whom people have low expectations because of those vicious mischaracterizations, which make it easy for her to exceed them. Sound like anybody we know? Say, a certain sitting, two-term president of the United States, perhaps? You'd think Dubya would see Ms. Harris as a political kindred spirit.

And just like GDub, Ms. Harris would enjoy the benefits of her opponent:

Bill Nelson will always underperform his résumé. Floridians accustomed to statewide officeholders of the stature of Jeb Bush, Bob Graham, Lawton Chiles and even lately Mel Martinez will be disappointed every time they are exposed to the incumbent Democrat. He’s a yawner. “How did this guy ever win?” they’ll wonder. Nelson reached the Senate only by besting an even more boring former Representative Bill McCollum.

And as I recall, he didn't best McCollum by much.

Nelson is also easily defined as a left-wing extremist, because, well, that's what he is:

Nelson ultimately will be perceived as more liberal than any Florida Democrat elected in modern times — more than Bob Graham, more than Lawton Chiles. Because Graham and Chiles had spent many years cultivating a moderate, mainstream image, Republicans could never make the “liberal” label stick to them, even when it was deserved. But Nelson has no such immunities, so his demonstrably liberal voting record will send voters to Harris.

But here's a wrinkle that, as somebody who has never been within a thousand miles of Florida, I did not know about - the "Old Florida" factor:

Another key advantage for Harris is her standing in what I call “Old Florida.” I don’t mean among senior citizens but rather among voters whose families have lived in Florida for generations. This is a relatively small yet key swing vote in the Sunshine State.

Until the 1980s, Florida almost always elected Democrats to statewide offices. Even during the succeeding decades, numerous populist or business-friendly Democrat candidates have been elected. For example, in 1994, when nearly every conservative in America won their elections, Jeb Bush lost to Lawton Chiles. “Walkin’ Lawton” was a special favorite of Old Florida. More recently, Old Florida was attracted to Betty Castor, the 2004 Democratic nominee against Mel Martinez. If not for Old Florida’s votes for Castor, Martinez would have won by a huge margin.

As a descendant of Florida citrus icon Ben Hill Griffin, Harris will be the choice of Old Florida that considers roots over ideology, party or even candidate image.

Makes you wonder how Governor Jeb can be unaware of that dynamic.

As to Ms. Harris' alleged inability to attract swing voters, Mr. Hill stresses her long-standing commitment to environmental protection and affordable-housing during her time in Congress, which he says will draw crossover support.

So, while I would have no intrinsic problem with turning the United States Senate into "Scarborough Country," we are brought back to the same question: why are the Bushies so obstinately against Katherine Harris?

Somebody better find a satisfactory answer - and cure - for that pathology before it costs the GOP an eminently winnable senate seat.