Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Dow Up, Gas Prices Down, Bush Still Mum

Did any of you catch this good economic news today?

Wall Street extended its winning streak on Monday, with the main indices all hitting 4½ year highs. Gains in Boeing led the Dow, while General Motors suffered from a renewed sell-off despite announcing radical restructuring plans.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.5%, or 53.95 points higher at 10,820.28, while the broader S&P 500 rose 0.5%, or 6.58 points to 1,254.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.7%, or 14.60 points at 2,241.67. [emphasis added]

How about this nugget?

U.S. retail gasoline prices fell to a 5-month low in the latest week but drivers will still pay the highest pump costs ever [in nominal terms, not inflation-adjusted] heading into a Thanksgiving Day holiday, the government's top energy forecasting agency said on Monday.

The price for regular unleaded gasoline declined 9.5 cents over the last week to an average $2.20 a gallon, based on the federal Energy Information Administration's weekly survey of service stations.

That is the lowest price since June 20, but still up 25 cents from a year ago and a record [in nominal terms, not inflation-adjusted] for the Thanksgiving holiday week, the EIA said.
Note how Reuters tries to soften the blow by citing comparison to a year ago, even though what matters is the direction of the current trend.

Note also how the Bush Administration continues to avoid touting the booming economy its economic policies have unleashed like it was bird flu contagion. Former GE Chairman Jack Welch has [h/t El Rushbo]:

Former GE Chairman and business management guru Jack Welch has some advice for President George W. Bush: Start bragging about the economy.

Welch told Fox News Channel that President Bush has much to be proud of with regard to the economy, but he has to get out there and sell himself - and his accomplishments - to the American people to let them know about it.

"President Bush put a tax bill through that supported capital formation and risk taking,” Welch said. "We’ve created 2 million jobs a year after the 9/11 attacks. That’s a remarkable accomplishment. Bush has to get out there and talk about it.”

Despite the recent natural disasters, such as Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, the U.S. economy continues to grow, and the stock market seems to weather every storm.

Welch has certainly noticed. Most business people have noticed. Investors noticed. But, according to the recent polls – which show the President’s approval rating at its lowest level of his presidency – the majority of Americans have not been persuaded of the "good news economy."

Welch's prescription? Dubya should bring out his "inner Gipper":

"Ronald Reagan was a master,” Welch said. "He talked about his accomplishments over and over again - not in a bragging way, but in a disarming way. Reagan reminded everyone of what he did and made them feel good about it – and about him.”

I would cite one other recent parallel: Bill Clinton. There was nothing remotely good that happened in this country - hell, in the world - that Sick Willie didn't immediately go before the cameras and take credit for it. He made taking credit for things into a cottage industry. He took credit for things he did and things he never did and things that had never been done. He took credit for the sun coming up, the air smelling sweet, and the birds chirping in the trees. In his presidency crap didn't stink, every wife swallowed, and even the heartbreak of psoriasis was cured.

Of course he took credit-taking (and credit-stealing) to such gargantuan excesses of shamelessness that it became a caracature. But he was also generally credited with the good economy of the nineties, as well as deficit reduction, both far more the products of the Republican Congress than anything Mr. Bill ever did. Sure, the Extreme Media was as in love with him as they hate George Bush, but he still had to get out on the hustings and promote himself.

And, like it or not, that's what his successor has to do. As with the war, so it is for the economy - Bush has to stop being so damned humble and start tooting his own horn:

There are many criticisms of the President that are inaccurate. But one that is partially accurate is that President Bush is a little bit lazy — or at least he was until very recently. He doesn't like going out and giving the same speech to different crowds, day after day after day. Few people in their right minds would. But in today's diffused mass media environment, getting a message across to the American people beyond the news junkies requires constant repetition. (The exception is during galvanizing events, like 9/11, that has the American people eager to hear what their leaders have to say.)

Often over the past several months, Bush has seen his poll ratings tumble, and it is widely believed that public support for the war in Iraq is declining. Reacting to this, the President has gone out and delivered pretty good speeches on the war in high-profile settings. And after each one, the President acted like the problem was solved, his work on the issue done.

But only a fraction of Americans watch or hear the speech in its entirety. Most only hear sound bites or read a quote or two online or in the paper. Whatever points the President made never sink in, and public opinion either doesn't move, or barely moves. The drumbeat of "We're doomed in Iraq, doomed in Iraq, doomed in Iraq" [or, "We're in a recession, in a recession, in a recession"] quickly overtakes the President's statements.

We have heard that this President doesn't enjoy press conferences. Nor does Vice President Cheney. Other than Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice, few members of his Cabinet are familiar faces on the news. Several times in recent days the president has had no public events scheduled. Bush continues to be, as some call him, "the occasional communicator."

To govern effectively, the Administration has to move past irritation with the media and reluctance to embrace Clintonian domination of the news cycle, and embrace the part of the job that includes communicating. A President cannot move his agenda without taking his case to the public....The White House is a powerful bully pulpit, and the President can set the agenda. But it takes more than one speech to do it. [emphases added]

They say that too much self-righteousness is makes one insufferable, but a little bit to cover one's scruples is a necessity. In the same way, too much boastfulness is obnoxious, but especially in politics, a reasonable amount of pointing out the good things your policies have produced is imperative - especially when the other side will tell any lies they have to to make the public believe the opposite.

Perhaps the problem can be summed up this way: How much does the truth matter to George W. Bush? Particularly when the truth is far more lethal to his political enemies than it is to him.