Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Kool-Aid To The Rescue?

Sorry, the imagery I wanted really didn't include a big, red talking juice pitcher (Was he in X-Men III? I must have missed that snippet...), but the riding-in-at-the-last-minute-to-save-the-day theme wasn't all that well-served by invoking the "cavalry" metaphor either, especially as they're going to be busy sharpening pencils and fetching coffee for the Mexican overseers of the U.S. Border Patrol anyway.

The gist of this post is that there may now actually be emerging from this "comprehensive" illegal immigration quagmire a way out for the Republican Party. One that was foreshadowed by Tony Blankley in the Washington Times a couple of weeks ago:

If — and it is a big if — all of that [securing the border and imposing sanctions upon employers who hire illegals] can be gained by congressional negotiations over the next two months, the question remains whether the anti-illegal immigrant and resident movement should accept some undesirable guest-worker or path-to-citizenship provisions — if that is the price we have to pay for getting a secure border.

This is where the sanity matter comes into play. Especially regarding the guest-worker provision, if we pass no legislation this year we will continue to have a de facto guest-worker program with millions of new arrivals every year and no secure border. Moreover, it is inconceivable that the November election will elect a Congress more amenable to our cause. The next Congress will have, if anything, more Democrats. Disgruntled conservatives will have no way of strengthening the anti-illegal immigrant vote: Their choice will be a soft Republican, a bad Democrat or abstention (which in effect is the same as a bad Democrat). It would seem to me that we lose nothing by trading an otherwise inevitable de facto guest worker condition for a genuinely secure border and employer sanction regimen.

On the other hand, the path to citizenship is not inevitable and should be fiercely resisted. Granting sacred citizenship to scofflaws is reprehensible, and if we pass nothing, at least we won't pass such a citizenship provision.


Well, lo and behold, reality seems to have bitten in the belfries of the GOP collective consciousness:

Republican House members facing the toughest races this fall are overwhelmingly opposed to any deal that provides illegal immigrants a path to citizenship — an election-year dynamic that significantly dims the prospects that President Bush will win the immigration compromise he is seeking, according to Republican lawmakers and leadership aides.

The opposition spreads across the geographical and ideological boundaries that often divide House Republicans, according to interviews with about half of the forty or so lawmakers whom political handicappers consider most vulnerable to defeat this November. At-risk Republicans — from moderates such as Christopher Shays in suburban Connecticut and Steve Chabot in Cincinnati to conservative J.D. Hayworth in Arizona — said they are adamant that Congress not take any action that might be perceived as rewarding illegal behavior. ...

... House Republicans appear inalterably opposed to any bill that paves the way for citizenship. They plan to name representatives to the House-Senate conference committee who share this view. They will fight for the security-only approach and are prepared to walk away from the conference if they don't get their way, according to GOP leadership aides. ...

The House is not going to roll over as lapdog for the Senate and White House. There will be no "comprehensive" immigration bill. Period.

So if the latter two want any smidgen of their border erasure scheme to survive and actually make it into law, they're going to have to follow the blithe advice condescended upon their House counterparts: compromise. And Congressman Mike Pence, no squish he, has proposed one - basically verifiable enforcement first, then a "guest worker" concept that requires prerequisite deportation - that is the best they're going to get and will turn the Democrats' policy jiu jitsu against them once again by either voting "yea" or being forced to embrace the very same politically untenable position that the President and Senate Republicans stupidly brought upon the GOP.

That there is a way out of the morass for the Stupid Party is miraculous in and of itself. Their taking it would be playing with pure, er, "House" money.