Three Puzzle Pieces
You gotta love the analogy of Extreme Media economic coverage Brian Westbury came up with:
Remember that it was the Establishment Survey to which Democrats clung during the 2004 campaign to bolster their "jobless recovery" attack on President Bush, whereas the Household Survey - which, just to briefly review, includes self-employment and is therefore a much more complete employment measuring stick - showed that there had been a million-plus net job gain.
This does answer the question of how one can negatively spin a 4.6% unemployment rate, or 8% annualized wage growth year-to-date, or industrial output rising over 5% annualized year to date - just ignore it and (*snerk*) cherry-pick any economic data one can that purports to paint a pessimistic picture.
The one area of legit concern? Inflation, which upticked 0.4% in May, driven largely be energy prices, a factor driven in turn by the can-never-be-cited-enough spiraling overseas demand for petroleum by Red China and India. Time to get cracking on scapping much of the dynamo-strangling environmental restrictions and go full-throttle on oil and natural gas drilling and nuclear energy. And in the meantime it wouldn't hurt Congress to stop spending money like Gladys Thornapple with an American Express account.
May as well get that underway now, while the good times still do, in fact, roll.
Imagine you were working on a 500-piece puzzle and had assembled 497 pieces, but found out that the last three pieces did not fit. In fact, you realized that they were from a completely different puzzle all together. What would you believe, that the three pieces were the right ones and the 497 were wrong, or vice-versa?
This is an important question for people looking at economic data these days. Those who think the economy is slowing focus on the 0.1% increase in retail sales during May. But, one or two-month slowdowns in economic data mean nothing. Retail sales are up 7.6% in the past year and 8.5% at an annual rate over the past six months. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.4% in May and are up 9.1% in the past year and 9.6% at an annual rate in the past six months.
Moreover, the future for retail sales does not look dour at all. Yes, non-farm payrolls increased by a less than expected 75,000 in May, but the household survey reported a 288,000 jump in employment. The Household Survey has been a much more accurate predictor of economic strength in this recovery than the Establishment Survey.
Remember that it was the Establishment Survey to which Democrats clung during the 2004 campaign to bolster their "jobless recovery" attack on President Bush, whereas the Household Survey - which, just to briefly review, includes self-employment and is therefore a much more complete employment measuring stick - showed that there had been a million-plus net job gain.
This does answer the question of how one can negatively spin a 4.6% unemployment rate, or 8% annualized wage growth year-to-date, or industrial output rising over 5% annualized year to date - just ignore it and (*snerk*) cherry-pick any economic data one can that purports to paint a pessimistic picture.
The one area of legit concern? Inflation, which upticked 0.4% in May, driven largely be energy prices, a factor driven in turn by the can-never-be-cited-enough spiraling overseas demand for petroleum by Red China and India. Time to get cracking on scapping much of the dynamo-strangling environmental restrictions and go full-throttle on oil and natural gas drilling and nuclear energy. And in the meantime it wouldn't hurt Congress to stop spending money like Gladys Thornapple with an American Express account.
May as well get that underway now, while the good times still do, in fact, roll.
posted by JASmius at 1:20 AM
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