Cardin vs. Mfume Kryptonite To al-Donka
The heretofore hypothetical question of how long the racial divisions within the Democrat Party could be concealed from public view has now been answered - and they threaten to cost the Dems a senate seat that, on the face of it, should not be in serious jeopardy:
What? What? The party of racial unity and healing, the party that puts itself over as the bane of bigotry and intolerence, and yet the party that is, after all, predominantly white, is splitting down the middle on the race of their two Maryland senatorial candidates? Say it ain't so! No wonder Mfume is so disgruntled about the rank hypocrisy of his party in stiffing him for a supposedly more electable white guy.
It isn't quite that cut and dried, of course. Mfume's lead is only 31%-25% with a full third of respondents still undecided. Most of those are white Donks, which suggests two ways that this contest could go: if the undecideds break mostly for Mfume, that would avert the looming race-based Dem crackup and enable the party to put a united front up against the (yes, also black) GOP nominee, Lieutenant-Governor Michael Steele, even though Mfume is the less credible Dem of the two. If the undecideds go toward Ben Cardin, the Dems would have the more credible standardbearer on the ballot, but he would hemorrhage black support due to the all-but-promised Mfume "insurgency."
The most entertaining part of this spectacle from the GOP perspective is that there doesn't seem to be an option that doesn't end up playing right into L-G Steele's hands. The Republican polls better against Mfume, and a black-on-black matchup would boost Steele's share of the white vote. But if Cardin wins the nomination, the Dems would stand to lose at least a quarter of the black vote, and maybe more, causing the al Donka racial split to expand up and down the ballot and beyond just 2006.
Regardless of who gets the Dem not, I think these polls undersell Michael Steele's strength. If he were challenging Sarbanes, I'd give him little chance. But in an open race, with the Donks divided and Steele being such a strong candidate, I think the ingredients are present for what will, on Election night, be called an "upset" - but which some of us [*AHEM*] will have seen coming all along.
[h/t: CQ]
Former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume leads U.S. Representative Benjamin L. Cardin in what is shaping up to be a racially polarized Democratic Senate primary in Maryland, even as roughly a third of the electorate has not settled on a candidate, according to a new Washington Post poll....
As they stand, the racial divisions are stark: In the primary, Mfume, who is black, gets 72% of his support from black voters, the poll shows. Cardin, who is white, gets 82% of his backing from white voters.
What? What? The party of racial unity and healing, the party that puts itself over as the bane of bigotry and intolerence, and yet the party that is, after all, predominantly white, is splitting down the middle on the race of their two Maryland senatorial candidates? Say it ain't so! No wonder Mfume is so disgruntled about the rank hypocrisy of his party in stiffing him for a supposedly more electable white guy.
It isn't quite that cut and dried, of course. Mfume's lead is only 31%-25% with a full third of respondents still undecided. Most of those are white Donks, which suggests two ways that this contest could go: if the undecideds break mostly for Mfume, that would avert the looming race-based Dem crackup and enable the party to put a united front up against the (yes, also black) GOP nominee, Lieutenant-Governor Michael Steele, even though Mfume is the less credible Dem of the two. If the undecideds go toward Ben Cardin, the Dems would have the more credible standardbearer on the ballot, but he would hemorrhage black support due to the all-but-promised Mfume "insurgency."
The most entertaining part of this spectacle from the GOP perspective is that there doesn't seem to be an option that doesn't end up playing right into L-G Steele's hands. The Republican polls better against Mfume, and a black-on-black matchup would boost Steele's share of the white vote. But if Cardin wins the nomination, the Dems would stand to lose at least a quarter of the black vote, and maybe more, causing the al Donka racial split to expand up and down the ballot and beyond just 2006.
Regardless of who gets the Dem not, I think these polls undersell Michael Steele's strength. If he were challenging Sarbanes, I'd give him little chance. But in an open race, with the Donks divided and Steele being such a strong candidate, I think the ingredients are present for what will, on Election night, be called an "upset" - but which some of us [*AHEM*] will have seen coming all along.
[h/t: CQ]
posted by JASmius at 11:42 AM
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