Hezbollah Joins The Party

I'm beginning to notice a pattern here:

Hezbollah militants captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid Wednesday, and dozens of Israeli troops crossed the frontier with warplanes, tanks and gunboats to hunt for the captives.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called the soldiers' capture "an act of war" and his Cabinet prepared to approve more military action in Lebanon - a second front in the fight against Islamic militants by Israel, which already is waging an operation to free a captured soldier in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli jets struck deep into southern Lebanon, blasting bridges and Hezbollah positions and killing two civilians, Lebanese security officials said.

The Israeli military planned to call up thousands of reservists, and residents of Israeli towns on the border with Lebanon were ordered to seek cover in underground bomb shelters.

Israel's Defense Ministry said the Lebanese government was responsible for the two soldiers' safety.

Now where would Hezbollah have gotten the idea to pull the exact same stunt that Hamas did in Gaza? Oh, of course they could think of kidnapping Israeli soldiers on their own - that's part & parcel of what terrorists do. And sure, they might be copycatting Hamas' example.

But what do we know that the two terror gangs and their ilk have in common? They take their marching orders from Iran. And if we go back and consult the Iranians' War Plan R, the pieces of the puzzle start falling into place:

Tehran will tempt the US with provocations from now through the summer. The major R provocation will resemble a surge of terror strikes from the witch's brew of terror gangs. The surge will be directed against sacred sites as well as strategic and civilian sites; the surge will include Israel, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and possibly Europe. Note that the Al Aqsa and Islamic Jihad gangs on the West Bank are working to show that they deserve to be part of the surge. Hamas is a junior partner….al Qaeda is a full partner, though junior to HizbAllah.

R has two victory points. If the US does not respond to the surge, Tehran wins. If the US does respond, Tehran wins. [emphases added]

Now look at Cap'n Ed's urgings of the Israelis to cut out the terrorist middlemen and attack Syria directly:

[Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert needs to take this fight where it really belongs: Syria. Syria supports both Hamas and Hezbollah (as does Iran), and until they address Damascus in a manner with some finality, Israel will keep facing off against the same terrorists over and over again. If we want to defeat the terrorists, we have to defeat the states that sponsor and fund them.

Morrissey is correct as far as the argument goes. But in the larger context of the war this escalation would be a highly unneeded distraction. Syria, in a strategic sense, is small potatoes. Iran is the big prize in the Middle East, and the toppling of the mullahgarchy the ticket to finally stablizing and pacifying that troubled region. Adolph Ahmadinejad and his puppetmasters know this, and they know that stirring up trouble in the Holy Land and getting Israel actively involved in mounting hostilities - always an incendiarily unifying factor for Muslims - is the last thing the Americans need no matter what strategy we pursue versus Tehran.

If we urge restraint on Israel, we look weak and hypocritical; if we "turn 'em loose," we ruinously complicate any nascent military plans of our own against the mullahs by stoking a violent situation that could quickly spin out of control, especially given the myopia and pure reactivity of Israel's actions in Gaza and now Lebanon.

The run-up to Plan R is in motion, folks. And the Jews are unwittingly dancing to Iran's tune like the cobra to the flute.

UPDATES: The Israelis' Gaza "incursion" keeps growing like a weed:

IDF troops were gearing up Tuesday afternoon for a planned massive incursion into the Gaza Strip.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert gave the IDF a green light to re-enter Gaza in an effort to stop Kassam rocket attacks. Military sources said that the new incursion would involve naval, infantry, and air forces, which would operate in the Gaza Strip.

I said when Operation Summer Rains began two weeks ago that this had to be an IDF reoccupation of the entire Gaza Strip if the serial kidnappings and endless Kassam rocket attacks into Israeli cities were going to be permanently stopped. Instead Olmert sent his forces in on the pretext of getting back Gilad Shalit, the IDF soldier kidnapped by Hamas in a cross-border raid from Gaza. But as the show of force continues to not intimidate Hamas, the Israeli PM keeps getting angrier and angrier, and his "incursion" grows right along with it towards the end I predicted.

Indeed, the terrorists seem to be going out of their way to taunt Olmert with their ridiculous demands:

In a press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Hizbullah's spiritual [and real] leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, lauded the Hizbullah for the attack in which seven IDF soldiers were killed and two others kidnapped and warned Israel that the Hizbullah would only release the captives in exchange for security prisoners.

"Our operation succeeded, we have results and honor," the sheikh declared. "We kept our promise to kidnap soldiers [to secure] the release of prisoners, and therefore are calling the attack 'Operation Promise Fulfilled'."

The sheikh warned Israel not to attempt a rescue operation. "If Israel wants to retrieve [the soldiers] through military action, it's deluding itself," he said. "If the goal of this military operation is to free them, it won't work," Nasrallah cautioned.

Nasrallah is probably right about that. What he should be concerning himself with is that the IDF might have more, shall we say, strategic goals in mind:

Not just rumors anymore…it’s looking more and more like a sure thing. From JPost:

OC Northern Command Major-General Udi Adam said the IDF was preparing for a widespread operation not only against Hizbullah but also against the Lebanese
government. The IDF, The Jerusalem Post learned, has drawn up plans to bomb the Beirut International Airport and other main infrastructure, including power
stations in Lebanon.

“The IDF is responding with its full might by the air, the sea and the ground,” Adam said. “We are also preparing for a massive operation to defend Israeli citizens and stop the terror.”

Ditto the beady-eyed, ferret-faced erstwhile opthamologist just up the road in Damascus:

While placing responsibility for the attack squarely on Lebanon’s shoulders, he made it clear that Syria would pay a price.

“Throughout the recent period, Syria has proven that it is a terrorist government,” Olmert said. “It supports terrorism, it is a government that backs terrorism, it is a government that encourages the murderous actions both of terrorists located on its soil and those beyond it. Of course, there will have to be an appropriate preparation in order to deal with the conduct of the Syrian government.” [emphasis added]

Speaking of events spinning out of control, here's this little prophecy from Jed Babbin:

In Israel's case, the center of gravity lies in Syria and in Egypt. For us, it's in Syria and Iran. The longer we and the Israelis wait, the greater the cost to both nations in blood and treasure.

It's 1973 all over again. If Israel sends a force into Lebanon it will probably face Syrian troops. We're awaiting reports of Syrian tank dispositions, and the movement of Egyptian and Saudi air forces. Watch. Watch closely. This is about to be a very big war.

And finally, we go back to Heidi at Euphoric Reality for the cherry atop the bloody sundae:

When/if Israel formally declares war, then the United States will very soon thereafter have to declare intent. There will no longer be time for us to dally around mincing words and calling for negotiations. This will be where the rubber meets the road. We are Israel’s ally. When Israel goes to war…we go to war.

Or do we?

We do if we want to retain a shred of credibility in the GWOT. And yet, to borrow, ironically, John Kerry's catch phrase from 2004, this is the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time. Israel is being led by a squish who was elected on a cut & run platform yet is now girding his loins and whooping battle cries as if he were King David. He is being, not goaded, and not provoked, but manipulated into going to war at the time and place of his enemies' choosing - the enemies in Tehran. And we are caught in the middle, just like the mullahs foresaw.

And if Olmert does go after Syria, and Egypt and Saudi Arabia get involved....and with the Bush Administration having no stomach for any more military action beyond Iraq....

Oy.

What's the Yiddish equivalent of, "This does not bode well"?