Campaign Rain Man
Jay Cost is Tom Cruise, I am Dustin Hoffman.
Today Cost uses fundraising numbers from campaigns and the respective party congressional committees to get an idea of just how many House seats are competitive by what the spending patterns in each indicate about how each side is REALLY looking at each race. After a long, dry, but illuminating discourse, he concludes that the number is thirty-five - thirty-two Republicans seats and three Democrat seats, netting to twenty-nine extra seats for the GOP to try and defend.
If we take that number and split the difference (along with some admittedly partisan rounding) we arrive at a net Dem pickup of fourteen seats - which just happens to be the number my projections indicate. Does that mean that's what the result will be? Who knows? But it does put me right smack in the middle of Cost's range, and thus lends an additional sheen to my efforts. It also keeps the House in Republican hands, if only by a single seat.
And if the Enemy Media spin is the BS many on my side of the aisle and Republicans do better than that, so much the better.
Case in point (sort of): While Michael Steele has now fallen five points behind Ben Cardin Maryland and Tom Kean two points behind Bob Menendez in New Jersey according to my current projections, GOP incumbent Senator Conrad Burns, given up for dead weeks ago, has very quietly tip-toed to within less than a point of Donk Challenger Jon Tester in my Montana projection. I've been counting on the GOP getting a split in the Marlyand and New Jersey contests, but if Burns can pull his race out, that would be another route to holding fifty-two Senate seats.
And it looks like I'm not the only one taking notice of this home stretch resurrection.
UPDATE: How's this for a barometer: Mark Foley's old Florida House seat looks increasingly like it will stay in GOP hands.
I don't want to get carried away with news like this, but if the Dems can't win this seat, the eye of the slimeacane they launched against the Republicans only a month ago to sweep the House back into their hands, well....
UPDATE II: The number of competitive Dem seats may be a bit more than just three....
Today Cost uses fundraising numbers from campaigns and the respective party congressional committees to get an idea of just how many House seats are competitive by what the spending patterns in each indicate about how each side is REALLY looking at each race. After a long, dry, but illuminating discourse, he concludes that the number is thirty-five - thirty-two Republicans seats and three Democrat seats, netting to twenty-nine extra seats for the GOP to try and defend.
If we take that number and split the difference (along with some admittedly partisan rounding) we arrive at a net Dem pickup of fourteen seats - which just happens to be the number my projections indicate. Does that mean that's what the result will be? Who knows? But it does put me right smack in the middle of Cost's range, and thus lends an additional sheen to my efforts. It also keeps the House in Republican hands, if only by a single seat.
And if the Enemy Media spin is the BS many on my side of the aisle and Republicans do better than that, so much the better.
Case in point (sort of): While Michael Steele has now fallen five points behind Ben Cardin Maryland and Tom Kean two points behind Bob Menendez in New Jersey according to my current projections, GOP incumbent Senator Conrad Burns, given up for dead weeks ago, has very quietly tip-toed to within less than a point of Donk Challenger Jon Tester in my Montana projection. I've been counting on the GOP getting a split in the Marlyand and New Jersey contests, but if Burns can pull his race out, that would be another route to holding fifty-two Senate seats.
And it looks like I'm not the only one taking notice of this home stretch resurrection.
UPDATE: How's this for a barometer: Mark Foley's old Florida House seat looks increasingly like it will stay in GOP hands.
I don't want to get carried away with news like this, but if the Dems can't win this seat, the eye of the slimeacane they launched against the Republicans only a month ago to sweep the House back into their hands, well....
UPDATE II: The number of competitive Dem seats may be a bit more than just three....
posted by JASmius at 8:48 AM
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