Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Let's Handicap 2008! (Part II)

Just when you think you've gotten your monitor cleaned from your breakfast expectoration, here comes your lunch back up and out.

This morning we examined the 2008 presidential election landscape as best it can be two full years in advance of the actual canvass. We saw how flippable states were pretty much a wash in terms of Electoral Votes, how the political climate will probably not favor a bitterly riven GOP, and how Hillary Clinton, per my unshakable impression of at least two years' running, will be the next president of the United States.

If she can't be stopped from taking the Big Chair, can the queen of mean at least be slowed down by the token check of a restored Republican Congress?

~ ~ ~

Let's take the Senate first.

There are (at least) two measures of vulnerability where Senate seats are concerned: party affiliation versus state "color" (i.e. a Donk seat in a "red" state and vice versa), which I consider to be minimal; and victory margin of the current incumbent, which I consider to be darn near pivotal.

If you look at the six 'Pubbies who went down a week ago (Allen, Burns, Chafee, DeWine, Santorum, Talent), right off the top of my head I know that four of them won in 2000 by only single-digit margins. I've been unsuccessful in locating the 2000 numbers to verify DeWine's and Chafee's margins back then, but I think the point is more than amply made.

With that in mind, here are the "safe" GOP seats, defined as in "red" states (defined, in turn, as states that went for Bush in both 2000 and 2004) where the incumbent won by ten or more points in 2002:

Sessions (AL)
Stevens (AK)
Craig (ID)
Roberts (KS)
McConnell (KY)
Cochrane (MS)
Hagel (NE)
Inhofe (OK)
Graham (SC)
Alexander (TN)
Cornyn (TX)
Warner (VA) (if he doesn't retire)
Enzi (WY)

Next are "low-risk" GOP seats, defined as "blue" (went for Gore and Kerry) and "purple" (split) states where the incumbents won by ten or more points in 2002:

Collins (ME)
Domenici (NM) (if he doesn't retire)
Smith (OR)

Next are "moderate-risk" GOP seats, defined as "red" states where the incumbents won by single-digit margins in 2002:

Allard (CO)
Chambliss (GA)
Dole (NC)

Finally, here are the "high-risk" GOP seats, defined as "blue/purple" states in which the incumbents won by single-digit margins in 2002:

Coleman (MN)
Sununu (NH)

Moving onto the Democrats, here are their "safe" seats (see definitions above, modified accordingly):

Biden (DE)
Durbin (IL)
Kerry (MA)
Levin (MI)
Lautenberg (or whomever) (NJ)
Reed (RI)

Here are the Democrats' low-risk seats:

Harkin (IA)
Baucus (MT)
Rockefeller (WV)

Democrats' middle-risk seats: None

Here are the Democrats' high-risk seats:

Pryor (AR)
Landrieu (LA)
Johnson (SD)

The totals that matter are these:

HIGH/MODERATE RISK SEATS: GOP 5, Dems 3

Of these eight seats, I would be sweating Allard, Coleman, and Sununu on the Republican side and Landrieu and Johnson on the Democrat side. Additionally, there is the matter of whether or not Pete Domenici and/or John Warner opt to call it a career. If Warner quits, I think you can pretty much count on George Allen running and holding that seat. However, if Domenici departs, I have no idea who the GOP could put up, and given the demographic trending of New Mexico, that seat would be considered highly vulnerable for a Dem pickup.

Consequently, the likely range we're looking at on the Senate side is from a two seat GOP gain if we get a tsunami year to a four-seat expansion of the Dem majority if Hillary has coattails. Absent a wave either way, it's probably a one seat Dem gain. And that would leave the Donks in the majority in the U.S. Senate for another two years.

Depressed yet? Wait'll we get to the other side of the Capitol.