Musharraf Doing What He Has To Do
Sometimes moves by heads of state are only understood by subsequent moves. Such is the case with Pakistani strongman Pervez Musharraf.
Yesterday the London Daily Telegraph reported that Musharraf had reached an agreement with the prime minister he deposed a decade ago, Benazir Bhutto, to bring back democracy to Pakistan:
If this looks like a defensive move on Musharraf's part, that's because it is. If the Islamists in his country were to succeed in knocking him off, there would be nothing to keep them from seizing power, and Pakistan's nuclear weaponry, for themselves, since both the military and Pakistani intelligence harbor a great many of their sympathizers. Bringing back Mrs. Bhutto and democracy along with her will, he doubtless hopes, provide a safety valve of sorts that will satiate the Pakistani people at large and marginalize the jihadis in the process.
One has to wonder about that, though. Although Admiral Ed suggests that the "Pakitaliban" only attracts about 10% public support, it's difficult to believe that figure isn't a great deal higher. Not a majority, necessarily, but a large enough plurality that the radicals may win via ballots more power than they ever enjoyed via bullets. They doubtless known enough recent history to remember that the Nazis never won more than 37% of the vote in any German election in the Weimar Republic, but it was enough to make Adolph Hitler chancellor, and ultimately, fuehrer.
That may be why Musharraf has given his army the green light to re-take Waziristan:
Parenthetically, I can't help noting a comment from a Pakistani officer that Ed re-quoted:
If one of our allies in the war we're trying to "end" by running away can accept this, is it really too much to ask that Democrat congresscritters and senators at least keep their despicable defeatism to themselves?
Apparently, it is.
UPDATE: Is Musharraf willing to sacrifice his career in order to save his, and Pakistan's, life? Mrs. Bhutto evidently will settle for no less.
Yesterday the London Daily Telegraph reported that Musharraf had reached an agreement with the prime minister he deposed a decade ago, Benazir Bhutto, to bring back democracy to Pakistan:
President Pervez Musharraf and Pakistan’s exiled former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, have struck an outline power-sharing deal to run Pakistan, ministers said.
Under the reported agreement, struck late on Friday night, General Musharraf would step down as commander in chief of the country’s armed forces but would be able to retain the presidency.
Mrs. Bhutto would be permitted to return to the country to stand in parliamentary elections, and the constitution would be changed to allow her to become prime minister for a third term.
If this looks like a defensive move on Musharraf's part, that's because it is. If the Islamists in his country were to succeed in knocking him off, there would be nothing to keep them from seizing power, and Pakistan's nuclear weaponry, for themselves, since both the military and Pakistani intelligence harbor a great many of their sympathizers. Bringing back Mrs. Bhutto and democracy along with her will, he doubtless hopes, provide a safety valve of sorts that will satiate the Pakistani people at large and marginalize the jihadis in the process.
One has to wonder about that, though. Although Admiral Ed suggests that the "Pakitaliban" only attracts about 10% public support, it's difficult to believe that figure isn't a great deal higher. Not a majority, necessarily, but a large enough plurality that the radicals may win via ballots more power than they ever enjoyed via bullets. They doubtless known enough recent history to remember that the Nazis never won more than 37% of the vote in any German election in the Weimar Republic, but it was enough to make Adolph Hitler chancellor, and ultimately, fuehrer.
That may be why Musharraf has given his army the green light to re-take Waziristan:
President Pervez Musharraf sees it as the centre of a campaign to “Talibanise” Pakistan. Spurred on by Washington, he has abandoned a truce with Waziristan’s Islamist guerrillas and ordered his army to root them out.The old Arab "strong horse/weak horse" axiom definitely applies in this instance. If Musharraf crushes his enemies in their "final redoubt" in the northwest of his country, they'll have far less testosteronal prestige with which to sway the impressionable Pakistani electorate. And we will, hopefully, secure our biggest potential vulnerability in the larger War Against Islamic Fundamentalism.
There are believed to be about 8,000 gunmen – a mix of foreign Al-Qaeda olunteers, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Islamists and local Waziris whose families have for centuries fought off any attempt to impose outside rule on this area. In modern times, even map-makers have been shot to hide the region’s mysteries from the outside world.
Last week soldiers sealed all the roads into Miran Shah, the provincial capital, occupied the hills around it and fired the first artillery salvo in what Musharraf’s many critics have called a war on his own people.
On Friday morning the army moved into parts of Miran Shah itself after militants blew up government buildings overnight. Most of the 60,000 townspeople are feared trapped, but hundreds of families have fled their mud homes in villages nearby and headed east for the sanctuary of Bannu, a town in the neighbouring North West Frontier province.
Parenthetically, I can't help noting a comment from a Pakistani officer that Ed re-quoted:
"There is no other option. It’s bad, but we have to fight.”
If one of our allies in the war we're trying to "end" by running away can accept this, is it really too much to ask that Democrat congresscritters and senators at least keep their despicable defeatism to themselves?
Apparently, it is.
UPDATE: Is Musharraf willing to sacrifice his career in order to save his, and Pakistan's, life? Mrs. Bhutto evidently will settle for no less.
posted by JASmius at 10:32 PM
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