Base Motivation
One other thought on the distinct lack of enthusiasm being registered at Kerry-Edwards campaign stops:
When compared to the genuinely huge, boisterous crowds greeting President Bush on his heartland bus trek, it is tempting to jump to the conclusion that this is prima facie evidence that the polls showing a dead heat are wrong and that Bush is really running away with the race. This, of course, is an illusion, and one to which wishful thinking makes the naïf partisan overly vulnerable. Rather like the New Yorker's movie critic, Pauline Kael, expressing astonishment at the Republicans' 49-state landslide victory in 1972: "How could that be? I don't know a single person who voted for Nixon."
But it is indicative of something else that could be a critical difference in this election: base motivation.
For all the attempts by the partisan media to spread the notion that George Bush’s base is disgruntled and fractious, the fact is that Republicans have always been rock-solidly behind the President – close to or better than 90% consistently. And that is reflected in the overflowing cheering crowds that greet him wherever he goes.
By contrast, for all the like attempts by the partisan media to put over the impression that the Democrats are united and frothing at the mouth to put John Kerry in the White House, the fact is that they are and have always been far more committed to getting rid of Bush than they’ve ever been about following the Boston Balker. This has been said many times, in many ways, but it bears repeating: there is a vast chasm between hating the other guy and loving your own. Speaking as a Clintophobe who fought the good fight for Bob Dole, I can speak to this first hand. Ditto Dems who detested Nixon and couldn’t wait to get rid of him in 1972, and Republicans who vilified FDR and tried to send him back to Hyde Park for over a decade. Negativity can only get you so far. You still have to have a viable and saleable alternative to offer because most people simply aren’t going to share your disapprobation.
In John Kerry, the Democrats fail that test, and I think that’s what’s being reflected at his rallies.
Does this mean that Kerry can’t win? No; but enthusiasm fuels turnout, and in a close contest this apathy could be fatal to the Gigolo’s chances.
And if it turns out to be not so close, Kerry’s inability to draw will have been an early harbinger of that collapse.
When compared to the genuinely huge, boisterous crowds greeting President Bush on his heartland bus trek, it is tempting to jump to the conclusion that this is prima facie evidence that the polls showing a dead heat are wrong and that Bush is really running away with the race. This, of course, is an illusion, and one to which wishful thinking makes the naïf partisan overly vulnerable. Rather like the New Yorker's movie critic, Pauline Kael, expressing astonishment at the Republicans' 49-state landslide victory in 1972: "How could that be? I don't know a single person who voted for Nixon."
But it is indicative of something else that could be a critical difference in this election: base motivation.
For all the attempts by the partisan media to spread the notion that George Bush’s base is disgruntled and fractious, the fact is that Republicans have always been rock-solidly behind the President – close to or better than 90% consistently. And that is reflected in the overflowing cheering crowds that greet him wherever he goes.
By contrast, for all the like attempts by the partisan media to put over the impression that the Democrats are united and frothing at the mouth to put John Kerry in the White House, the fact is that they are and have always been far more committed to getting rid of Bush than they’ve ever been about following the Boston Balker. This has been said many times, in many ways, but it bears repeating: there is a vast chasm between hating the other guy and loving your own. Speaking as a Clintophobe who fought the good fight for Bob Dole, I can speak to this first hand. Ditto Dems who detested Nixon and couldn’t wait to get rid of him in 1972, and Republicans who vilified FDR and tried to send him back to Hyde Park for over a decade. Negativity can only get you so far. You still have to have a viable and saleable alternative to offer because most people simply aren’t going to share your disapprobation.
In John Kerry, the Democrats fail that test, and I think that’s what’s being reflected at his rallies.
Does this mean that Kerry can’t win? No; but enthusiasm fuels turnout, and in a close contest this apathy could be fatal to the Gigolo’s chances.
And if it turns out to be not so close, Kerry’s inability to draw will have been an early harbinger of that collapse.
posted by JASmius at 1:41 PM
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