Bounce Watch
It’s September 10th, a full week since the end of the GOP convention, and time to check in on what kind of bounce President Bush received from the raucously effective proceedings.
The initial reaction is that it would depend on which polls one consults. The Time, Newsweek, CNN/Gallup, ABC/WaPo, and CBS/NYT surveys average a nine-point lead for Dubya; but Zogby, AP/Ipsos, Rasmussen, and Fox have him up by an average of only four.
However, my polling composite is more heavily weighted toward the latter than the former, and that shows Mr. Bush leading the Boston Balker by approximately five points, 48%-43%, for a boost of the same amount. This is a bit short of what I was predicting a couple of weeks ago, but not by much. The next question to be answered is whether this bounce will fade almost entirely as the one following the Reagan funeral did, or whether some or most of it will stick.
My take is that it will be the latter, for several reasons. One is that the June uptick had nothing to do with the President personally; it was all reflected goodwill from the Gipper’s passing that faded like the Shekinah glory off the face of Moses when he descended form Mt. Sinai (Yes, I’m sticking with that aphorism…), whereas this one is all about GDub. The second, as the internals of the aforementioned ABC/Washington Post survey indicate, is that the President has succeeded tremendously in making this election a referendum on which direction to take in the war against Islamism. Even if the Dems can succeed in spinning the economy negatively to any significant degree, the primacy of national security will still carry Bush beyond where Kerry can reach. And thirdly, if “50/50 nation” applies so rigidly and monolithically as some analysts insist – which seems belied by Bush’s post-convention bounce – even a mid-single digit lead will be difficult for Lurch to overcome. And, in point of fact, the biggest lead Kerry has ever enjoyed in my polling composite has been three and a half points, and the biggest move he’s made all year – wiping out most, but not all, of that June Bush bounce – is less, by a whisker, than the advantage Dubya currently enjoys. And for all the talk of Kerry’s reputation as a “strong closer,” that was in Massachusetts, not nationally, and a large proportion of independents and even some “9/11 Democrats” seem to have taken his measure and decided to stick with Bush.
So I think that what Dick Morris calls the “third convention,” this weekend’s 9/11 commemorations, will keep Bush’s lead more or less in place for at least another week, after which the big-margin polls will fall into line with Zogby/Fox/Rasmussen and the race will settle into a new equilibrium at about a three-point Bush advantage, which the debates (however many there end up being) and machine-gunning lib smear-mongering will not alter much.
Call the final tally Bush 50%, Kerry 47%.
The initial reaction is that it would depend on which polls one consults. The Time, Newsweek, CNN/Gallup, ABC/WaPo, and CBS/NYT surveys average a nine-point lead for Dubya; but Zogby, AP/Ipsos, Rasmussen, and Fox have him up by an average of only four.
However, my polling composite is more heavily weighted toward the latter than the former, and that shows Mr. Bush leading the Boston Balker by approximately five points, 48%-43%, for a boost of the same amount. This is a bit short of what I was predicting a couple of weeks ago, but not by much. The next question to be answered is whether this bounce will fade almost entirely as the one following the Reagan funeral did, or whether some or most of it will stick.
My take is that it will be the latter, for several reasons. One is that the June uptick had nothing to do with the President personally; it was all reflected goodwill from the Gipper’s passing that faded like the Shekinah glory off the face of Moses when he descended form Mt. Sinai (Yes, I’m sticking with that aphorism…), whereas this one is all about GDub. The second, as the internals of the aforementioned ABC/Washington Post survey indicate, is that the President has succeeded tremendously in making this election a referendum on which direction to take in the war against Islamism. Even if the Dems can succeed in spinning the economy negatively to any significant degree, the primacy of national security will still carry Bush beyond where Kerry can reach. And thirdly, if “50/50 nation” applies so rigidly and monolithically as some analysts insist – which seems belied by Bush’s post-convention bounce – even a mid-single digit lead will be difficult for Lurch to overcome. And, in point of fact, the biggest lead Kerry has ever enjoyed in my polling composite has been three and a half points, and the biggest move he’s made all year – wiping out most, but not all, of that June Bush bounce – is less, by a whisker, than the advantage Dubya currently enjoys. And for all the talk of Kerry’s reputation as a “strong closer,” that was in Massachusetts, not nationally, and a large proportion of independents and even some “9/11 Democrats” seem to have taken his measure and decided to stick with Bush.
So I think that what Dick Morris calls the “third convention,” this weekend’s 9/11 commemorations, will keep Bush’s lead more or less in place for at least another week, after which the big-margin polls will fall into line with Zogby/Fox/Rasmussen and the race will settle into a new equilibrium at about a three-point Bush advantage, which the debates (however many there end up being) and machine-gunning lib smear-mongering will not alter much.
Call the final tally Bush 50%, Kerry 47%.
posted by JASmius at 8:28 PM
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