Bush tramples Kerry in third debate - but will it matter?
I don't have any better answer to that question - in other words, none - now than I did after Debate II.
The megablogs I frequent seem a lot more optimistic than I have of late:
Blogs4Bush: "I have to say Bush was fantastic tonight... He got Kerry on the defensive, and showed that Democrats do not have a monopoly on domestic issues. John Kerry resorted to the same old rhetoric while Bush was on top of his game, rebutting with facts and information that must have made Kerry's face wrinkle back up.
"Kerry's performance over these three debates stayed consistent. Rhetoric, distortions, whining, finger-pointing, and avoiding answering questions. Kerry can't tout his own accomplishments and resorts to whining and blaming everything on Bush. Kerry thinks his 20 years in the Senate is sacred and shouldn't be looked at... It was sad. The domestic agenda was supposed to be Kerry's strong point, and he didn't come out on top tonight... That's pretty bad. Kerry's using Dick Cheney's daughter in the debate was in such poor taste that even his own party must have gasped and wished he didn't say that.
"Tonight, Bush took Kerry's 'strong point' and made it Kerry's Achilles' Heel. I loved it. I'm glad the debates are over, Bush now embarks on the final days of the campaign with a great edge that will take him to victory."
KerrySpot: "John Kerry came across as an old, tired, worn out, stretched-out Leftist Tree Spirit belched forth by the fiery pits of Massachusetts liberalism. Despite citing Ronald Reagan so frequently that one might think he had a nervous tic, his answers made clear that a President Kerry would chart the country on a course further to the left than Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, and LBJ. We know what we’ve got in George W. Bush. Conservative most of the time, moderate when he doesn’t have the votes; a guy who may make mistakes, but you’ll always know where he stands.
"Bush wasn’t perfect, but he was solid - there was no question that he missed, and he really seemed to keep jabbing at Kerry, painting Kerry as a tax hiker, a big-government liberal, a creature of limited accomplishments in the Senate. Bush was confident, Kerry looked exhausted.
"Did he spend the day visiting hurricane victims or something? Hasn’t he been off the trail for like, 72 hours? What, was he up late watching Edwards on Jay Leno?"
Captain's Quarters: "Bush stomped Kerry, without a doubt. Not only did he project a more interested demeanor, but he also showed a more pleasant speaking style and a superior grasp of detail. He projected an optimism that completely escapes Kerry, especially tonight. Kerry was the one stumbling through answers this time, including inexplicably on the question about his experience with strong women. Kerry could not stay on topic, and like John Edwards, wound up simply regurgitating his stump speeches. Bush offered more thoughtful answers, more extemporaneous, and seemed much more genuine as a result.
"This debate will wind up being recognized as a disaster for the Kerry campaign within the next 48 hours, and within 96 hours the polls will demonstrate it."
And, last but certainly not least, the ever defeatist and sternly objective Hugh Hewitt:
"Bush wins because of the faith question, the gay marriage question and the emphasis on education and Kerry's Global test. Kerry strong on jobs and health care, but weak on connecting with people. Shieffer probably doesn't even know how in the tank he was, a product of the deep, deep bias at CBS and MSM generally. Kerry on the defensive on many issues tthat matter to voters, and especially Catholic voters and voters with children. The worst fumble by Kerry: Not answering the cost question on health care
"Talking heads breaking for Bush in a big way. Bill Kristol, always hard on Bush, acknowledges that Bush crushed Kerry on nearly every exchange. Moron K. outraged at 'outing' of Cheney's daughter, which he calls a low, dirty trick. Barnes very happy. Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's manager, getting quizzed by Wolf: Why did Kerry miss so many opportunities?
"Kerry finsihed the debate sequence as the candidate of global tests, truth tests, France, tax hikes, government health care, uncomfortable with faith, for taxpayer funded abortion, and very well spoken in sayiong all those things.
"Bush finished the debate joking about his mangled syntax, speaking from the heart about his faith and prayer, praising Laura Bush to the skys, promising to keep working hard for children and the armies of compassison, resolute in the war, thrilled by Afghanistan, optimistic about Iraq, and comfortable with every voter in his potential pool.
"Poor Chris Matthews, trying to get assault weapons to be the key issue of the night. He knows.
"Sleep easy, America. W for four more years."
You know what's coming next, doncha?
But was it enough to change the dynamic of the race again?
I still don't know.
After Debate I I figured that the draw I saw would not cost Bush any ground in the polls because Kerry needed a knockout. But Big Media spun it as a knockout and Kerry gained ground after all.
After Debate II I figured that Bush's rebound from Coral Gables and clear victory would stop the bleeding. But he's sunk half a point in my polling composite since then, and today would lose the Electoral College to Kerry by 28 Votes.
Bush was even better tonight. His command of facts and details shamed Kerry on what were supposed to be his strongest areas. The President's accomplishments of his first term provided gaping contrast to Kerry's empty, extremist, hollow shell of a senate record. Bush even seemed smarter then Kerry; he displayed the greater mental agility and acuity, while Kerry reverted still more to his normal verbose, pompous, pedantic self. While never becoming tongue-tied, halting, or stuttering, Kerry did repeatedly seem out of his depth whenever hack moderator Bob Schiefer wasn't throwing him whiffleballs (Somebody might want to check Schiefer's suit jacket for bulges, BTW - it sure seemed like he was wired to receive questions directly from Mary Beth Cahill...).
But that was just the wonkish substance that nobody cares about or remembers even the next morning. In what does matter - style - Bush's triumph was even more decisive. Tonight Americans saw the Bush they know, love and trust. The real guy, the self-deprecation, the genuine humor, the authenticity - it was on full, dazzling display, as it was not in Coral Gables and was ramping up to in St. Louis. Gone was the scowling, the pursed lips, the slouching, the almost palpable compulsion to leave his podium and start stalking back and forth across the stage. To borrow a baseball aphorism, if Kerry hit a solo shot off Bush in Debate I, and Bush brushed Kerry back in Debate II, tonight he struck Kerry out looking.
In other words, Bush adjusted.
But Senator Kerry never did. His Debate I performance was his best, and in retrospect can be more easily seen as quality only by contrast to that of the President's underachieving one. As Bush's game rose in Debate II, Kerry's remained the same. And tonight Bush left him in the dust. Again, to reference baseball, Kerry was like a pitcher that switches leagues and baffles teams on his first tour through the league, but gets figured out on the second as teams have a chance to study film and - you guessed it - make adjustments.
Thus do many would-be Cy Young candidates fall into mediocrity.
But will Kerry, now having been conclusively exposed as a polished, well-spoken left-wing cipher, fall out of contention for the White House?
I just don't know. The case can be strongly made that Debate I is the one that really mattered. Some sixty million Americans were watching that night, as much or more than Debates II and III combined, more than likely. And, of course, the public perception is that Kerry won that one. So maybe it didn't matter if his one-note act eroded after Coral Gables and Bush made his comeback, since it was all taking place in a public vaccuum.
If that's the case, then the Kerryward polling trend will continue, and the Boston Balker will slowly but steadily pull away.
Or perhaps the President's hemorrhaging poll numbers will finally stabilize. But at the level they're at now, Kerry can and almost certainly will steal at least four states, including Ohio, and the election along with it.
No, Bush needed to gain ground from tonight's battle - preferably back to where he was, but at least a point or two to get above the vote fraud discount.
Will he get it?
Well, this afternoon Sean Hannity asked George Will to make an election prediction. Will ducked the question, but did say that he thinks the race will break decisively one way or the other in the next week to ten days.
George Bush's comeback in this best-of-three series, and Kerry's concurrent fade, seems to put some "red" bark on that tree.
If either matters.
One way or another, the answer to that question will not be long in coming.
The megablogs I frequent seem a lot more optimistic than I have of late:
Blogs4Bush: "I have to say Bush was fantastic tonight... He got Kerry on the defensive, and showed that Democrats do not have a monopoly on domestic issues. John Kerry resorted to the same old rhetoric while Bush was on top of his game, rebutting with facts and information that must have made Kerry's face wrinkle back up.
"Kerry's performance over these three debates stayed consistent. Rhetoric, distortions, whining, finger-pointing, and avoiding answering questions. Kerry can't tout his own accomplishments and resorts to whining and blaming everything on Bush. Kerry thinks his 20 years in the Senate is sacred and shouldn't be looked at... It was sad. The domestic agenda was supposed to be Kerry's strong point, and he didn't come out on top tonight... That's pretty bad. Kerry's using Dick Cheney's daughter in the debate was in such poor taste that even his own party must have gasped and wished he didn't say that.
"Tonight, Bush took Kerry's 'strong point' and made it Kerry's Achilles' Heel. I loved it. I'm glad the debates are over, Bush now embarks on the final days of the campaign with a great edge that will take him to victory."
KerrySpot: "John Kerry came across as an old, tired, worn out, stretched-out Leftist Tree Spirit belched forth by the fiery pits of Massachusetts liberalism. Despite citing Ronald Reagan so frequently that one might think he had a nervous tic, his answers made clear that a President Kerry would chart the country on a course further to the left than Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, and LBJ. We know what we’ve got in George W. Bush. Conservative most of the time, moderate when he doesn’t have the votes; a guy who may make mistakes, but you’ll always know where he stands.
"Bush wasn’t perfect, but he was solid - there was no question that he missed, and he really seemed to keep jabbing at Kerry, painting Kerry as a tax hiker, a big-government liberal, a creature of limited accomplishments in the Senate. Bush was confident, Kerry looked exhausted.
"Did he spend the day visiting hurricane victims or something? Hasn’t he been off the trail for like, 72 hours? What, was he up late watching Edwards on Jay Leno?"
Captain's Quarters: "Bush stomped Kerry, without a doubt. Not only did he project a more interested demeanor, but he also showed a more pleasant speaking style and a superior grasp of detail. He projected an optimism that completely escapes Kerry, especially tonight. Kerry was the one stumbling through answers this time, including inexplicably on the question about his experience with strong women. Kerry could not stay on topic, and like John Edwards, wound up simply regurgitating his stump speeches. Bush offered more thoughtful answers, more extemporaneous, and seemed much more genuine as a result.
"This debate will wind up being recognized as a disaster for the Kerry campaign within the next 48 hours, and within 96 hours the polls will demonstrate it."
And, last but certainly not least, the ever defeatist and sternly objective Hugh Hewitt:
"Bush wins because of the faith question, the gay marriage question and the emphasis on education and Kerry's Global test. Kerry strong on jobs and health care, but weak on connecting with people. Shieffer probably doesn't even know how in the tank he was, a product of the deep, deep bias at CBS and MSM generally. Kerry on the defensive on many issues tthat matter to voters, and especially Catholic voters and voters with children. The worst fumble by Kerry: Not answering the cost question on health care
"Talking heads breaking for Bush in a big way. Bill Kristol, always hard on Bush, acknowledges that Bush crushed Kerry on nearly every exchange. Moron K. outraged at 'outing' of Cheney's daughter, which he calls a low, dirty trick. Barnes very happy. Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's manager, getting quizzed by Wolf: Why did Kerry miss so many opportunities?
"Kerry finsihed the debate sequence as the candidate of global tests, truth tests, France, tax hikes, government health care, uncomfortable with faith, for taxpayer funded abortion, and very well spoken in sayiong all those things.
"Bush finished the debate joking about his mangled syntax, speaking from the heart about his faith and prayer, praising Laura Bush to the skys, promising to keep working hard for children and the armies of compassison, resolute in the war, thrilled by Afghanistan, optimistic about Iraq, and comfortable with every voter in his potential pool.
"Poor Chris Matthews, trying to get assault weapons to be the key issue of the night. He knows.
"Sleep easy, America. W for four more years."
You know what's coming next, doncha?
But was it enough to change the dynamic of the race again?
I still don't know.
After Debate I I figured that the draw I saw would not cost Bush any ground in the polls because Kerry needed a knockout. But Big Media spun it as a knockout and Kerry gained ground after all.
After Debate II I figured that Bush's rebound from Coral Gables and clear victory would stop the bleeding. But he's sunk half a point in my polling composite since then, and today would lose the Electoral College to Kerry by 28 Votes.
Bush was even better tonight. His command of facts and details shamed Kerry on what were supposed to be his strongest areas. The President's accomplishments of his first term provided gaping contrast to Kerry's empty, extremist, hollow shell of a senate record. Bush even seemed smarter then Kerry; he displayed the greater mental agility and acuity, while Kerry reverted still more to his normal verbose, pompous, pedantic self. While never becoming tongue-tied, halting, or stuttering, Kerry did repeatedly seem out of his depth whenever hack moderator Bob Schiefer wasn't throwing him whiffleballs (Somebody might want to check Schiefer's suit jacket for bulges, BTW - it sure seemed like he was wired to receive questions directly from Mary Beth Cahill...).
But that was just the wonkish substance that nobody cares about or remembers even the next morning. In what does matter - style - Bush's triumph was even more decisive. Tonight Americans saw the Bush they know, love and trust. The real guy, the self-deprecation, the genuine humor, the authenticity - it was on full, dazzling display, as it was not in Coral Gables and was ramping up to in St. Louis. Gone was the scowling, the pursed lips, the slouching, the almost palpable compulsion to leave his podium and start stalking back and forth across the stage. To borrow a baseball aphorism, if Kerry hit a solo shot off Bush in Debate I, and Bush brushed Kerry back in Debate II, tonight he struck Kerry out looking.
In other words, Bush adjusted.
But Senator Kerry never did. His Debate I performance was his best, and in retrospect can be more easily seen as quality only by contrast to that of the President's underachieving one. As Bush's game rose in Debate II, Kerry's remained the same. And tonight Bush left him in the dust. Again, to reference baseball, Kerry was like a pitcher that switches leagues and baffles teams on his first tour through the league, but gets figured out on the second as teams have a chance to study film and - you guessed it - make adjustments.
Thus do many would-be Cy Young candidates fall into mediocrity.
But will Kerry, now having been conclusively exposed as a polished, well-spoken left-wing cipher, fall out of contention for the White House?
I just don't know. The case can be strongly made that Debate I is the one that really mattered. Some sixty million Americans were watching that night, as much or more than Debates II and III combined, more than likely. And, of course, the public perception is that Kerry won that one. So maybe it didn't matter if his one-note act eroded after Coral Gables and Bush made his comeback, since it was all taking place in a public vaccuum.
If that's the case, then the Kerryward polling trend will continue, and the Boston Balker will slowly but steadily pull away.
Or perhaps the President's hemorrhaging poll numbers will finally stabilize. But at the level they're at now, Kerry can and almost certainly will steal at least four states, including Ohio, and the election along with it.
No, Bush needed to gain ground from tonight's battle - preferably back to where he was, but at least a point or two to get above the vote fraud discount.
Will he get it?
Well, this afternoon Sean Hannity asked George Will to make an election prediction. Will ducked the question, but did say that he thinks the race will break decisively one way or the other in the next week to ten days.
George Bush's comeback in this best-of-three series, and Kerry's concurrent fade, seems to put some "red" bark on that tree.
If either matters.
One way or another, the answer to that question will not be long in coming.
posted by JASmius at 9:20 PM
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