E-minus 3 days and counting....
The Kerry surge resumes....
Poll Composite: Bush 47.6%, Kerry 46.0% (Bush +1.6 – down 1.0%)
A number of explanations spin around for this number. "Weekends are always bad for us"; "GOP voters aren't answering phones on Fridays because they're out at high school football games"; and of course, the ever present standby, bitching about poll methodology.
Any or all of those may well be playing a factor in what is looking like a Bush collapse. But we've got to face up to the possibility that NYTrogate cut in half the four-plus point lead with which the President began the week, and the bin Laden video is having precisely the effect on Americans that Osama intended - to make Bush look like a failure at combatting terrorism because he hasn't captured OBL.
Yes, it's complete BS, but four years ago GDub almost didn't make it to the White House because of a lousy DUI conviction half a lifetime before, too.
Incidentally and just for giggles, at the current rate of Bush's slide, Kerry will wind up winning the popular vote by 0.2%.
Electoral College: Bush 223, Kerry 191 (tossups 124)
-Colorado moves from tossup to "leaning Bush"
-Nevada moves from "leaning Bush" to tossup
-New Mexico moves from "leaning Bush" to tossup
-Pennsylvania moves from tossup to "leaning Kerry"
PROJECTIONS:
Popular Vote: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 48.3% (Bush +1.8 - down 0.8%)
Electoral College: Bush 301, Kerry 237
Bush flips Ohio, trades Wisconsin for Minnesota.
More Zogby insanity. Now he has Bush up five in Ohio, but down eight in Wisconsin??? A four-point lunge back toward Bush in Minnesota? I'm getting motion sickness....
TOSSUP MARGINS:
Florida: Bush +0.3 (+1.6 w/o Zogby)
Hawaii: Bush +0.9
Iowa: Bush +2.2
Michigan: Kerry +2.7
Minnesota: Bush +0.7
Nevada: Bush +3.8
New Hampshire: Kerry +2.0
New Jersey: Kerry +2.3
New Mexico: Bush +4.0
Ohio: Bush +0.8 (Zogby and the LA Times poll showing Kerry up six negate each other quite nicely.)
Wisconsin: Kerry +1.0 (Bush +0.8 w/o Zogby)
Today's bottom line: There's a definite dichotomy going on between the national margin and the state-by-state numbers. One would think that if Kerry were closing the gap by half a point a day, the aforementioned states would all be showing similar movement. But that isn't the case. Bush drops another point nationally but gains a net ten Electoral Votes (twenty if you throw out Zogby's Wisconsin whimsy)? They can't both be true.
The aforelinked Jay Cost had this to say:
Fox released its new poll about 45 minutes ago. Note that the poll uses the last day sample of the previous poll. This indicates that Fox is going to start doing a rolling average. As is typical of media organizations who do not know any better, they have junked the previous day's poll. This is quite stupid. If you average the two results out, taking in all the data collected in the four days thus far, Bush is ahead 49.2% to 45% with a margin of error of less than 3%. Apparently, Bush did not poll well in Friday's Fox sample. The Washington Post's polling director was on Fox just now and he said Kerry did very well on Friday, too. Look for that poll's margins to fall. Try not to let this upset you. They only sample about 200-300 people in any given day. Kerry had a blip last weekend in the WaPo tracking poll, too. It was just a blip. I would note that the evidence from last electiondoes not indicate that WaPo was pro-Gore on the weekends. This year, though, they are 3 for 3 pro-Kerry on the weekends, if the WaPo does the same now.
Generally speaking, the state numbers follow the national number. And right now that's not happening.
OTOH, if the national figure is accurate and the state numbers are off, Team Bush has a big problem, because not only are they in freefall, but they are on the precipice of falling below their fraud-adjusted breakeven point, which is about two percentage points. Or, put another way, Bush has to win by more than two points nationally and/or win an outright popular vote majority in order to remove Democrat vote fraud as a material factor in the election outcome.
Otherwise, based on today's tossup margins, Kerry would defraud away Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, turning a 301-237 defeat into a 288-250 victory.
The bottom, bottom line? The President cannot lose any more ground. If he does, the election, and his presidency, will slip-slide away.
Then again, maybe it was high school football....
SENATE UPDATE: Mary Castor has barely nosed ahead of Mel Martinez in Florida (thanks to Zogby and the NY Times; they make quite a tag-team, don't they?). For the time being, that reduces the GOP gain to two seats.
Poll Composite: Bush 47.6%, Kerry 46.0% (Bush +1.6 – down 1.0%)
A number of explanations spin around for this number. "Weekends are always bad for us"; "GOP voters aren't answering phones on Fridays because they're out at high school football games"; and of course, the ever present standby, bitching about poll methodology.
Any or all of those may well be playing a factor in what is looking like a Bush collapse. But we've got to face up to the possibility that NYTrogate cut in half the four-plus point lead with which the President began the week, and the bin Laden video is having precisely the effect on Americans that Osama intended - to make Bush look like a failure at combatting terrorism because he hasn't captured OBL.
Yes, it's complete BS, but four years ago GDub almost didn't make it to the White House because of a lousy DUI conviction half a lifetime before, too.
Incidentally and just for giggles, at the current rate of Bush's slide, Kerry will wind up winning the popular vote by 0.2%.
Electoral College: Bush 223, Kerry 191 (tossups 124)
-Colorado moves from tossup to "leaning Bush"
-Nevada moves from "leaning Bush" to tossup
-New Mexico moves from "leaning Bush" to tossup
-Pennsylvania moves from tossup to "leaning Kerry"
PROJECTIONS:
Popular Vote: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 48.3% (Bush +1.8 - down 0.8%)
Electoral College: Bush 301, Kerry 237
Bush flips Ohio, trades Wisconsin for Minnesota.
More Zogby insanity. Now he has Bush up five in Ohio, but down eight in Wisconsin??? A four-point lunge back toward Bush in Minnesota? I'm getting motion sickness....
TOSSUP MARGINS:
Florida: Bush +0.3 (+1.6 w/o Zogby)
Hawaii: Bush +0.9
Iowa: Bush +2.2
Michigan: Kerry +2.7
Minnesota: Bush +0.7
Nevada: Bush +3.8
New Hampshire: Kerry +2.0
New Jersey: Kerry +2.3
New Mexico: Bush +4.0
Ohio: Bush +0.8 (Zogby and the LA Times poll showing Kerry up six negate each other quite nicely.)
Wisconsin: Kerry +1.0 (Bush +0.8 w/o Zogby)
Today's bottom line: There's a definite dichotomy going on between the national margin and the state-by-state numbers. One would think that if Kerry were closing the gap by half a point a day, the aforementioned states would all be showing similar movement. But that isn't the case. Bush drops another point nationally but gains a net ten Electoral Votes (twenty if you throw out Zogby's Wisconsin whimsy)? They can't both be true.
The aforelinked Jay Cost had this to say:
Fox released its new poll about 45 minutes ago. Note that the poll uses the last day sample of the previous poll. This indicates that Fox is going to start doing a rolling average. As is typical of media organizations who do not know any better, they have junked the previous day's poll. This is quite stupid. If you average the two results out, taking in all the data collected in the four days thus far, Bush is ahead 49.2% to 45% with a margin of error of less than 3%. Apparently, Bush did not poll well in Friday's Fox sample. The Washington Post's polling director was on Fox just now and he said Kerry did very well on Friday, too. Look for that poll's margins to fall. Try not to let this upset you. They only sample about 200-300 people in any given day. Kerry had a blip last weekend in the WaPo tracking poll, too. It was just a blip. I would note that the evidence from last electiondoes not indicate that WaPo was pro-Gore on the weekends. This year, though, they are 3 for 3 pro-Kerry on the weekends, if the WaPo does the same now.
Generally speaking, the state numbers follow the national number. And right now that's not happening.
OTOH, if the national figure is accurate and the state numbers are off, Team Bush has a big problem, because not only are they in freefall, but they are on the precipice of falling below their fraud-adjusted breakeven point, which is about two percentage points. Or, put another way, Bush has to win by more than two points nationally and/or win an outright popular vote majority in order to remove Democrat vote fraud as a material factor in the election outcome.
Otherwise, based on today's tossup margins, Kerry would defraud away Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, turning a 301-237 defeat into a 288-250 victory.
The bottom, bottom line? The President cannot lose any more ground. If he does, the election, and his presidency, will slip-slide away.
Then again, maybe it was high school football....
SENATE UPDATE: Mary Castor has barely nosed ahead of Mel Martinez in Florida (thanks to Zogby and the NY Times; they make quite a tag-team, don't they?). For the time being, that reduces the GOP gain to two seats.
posted by JASmius at 7:22 PM
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