E-minus 5 days and counting....
....and the trend is not looking good.
Poll Composite: Bush 48.3%, Kerry 45.9% (Bush +2.4 – down 0.8%)
On the one hand, NYTrogate has blown up in John Kerry's face, his campaign is now trying to run away from this latest Big Media hit piece fiasco, and the Bushies are exhibiting increasing optimism, almost like they're moving in for the kill:
"According to the Bushies, the last few days have seen a huge burst of momentum in their numbers. They think Bush is ahead by a few points nationally. They expect the next round of tracking polls to show a bit of a bump.
"Finally, the ammo dump story appears to have left the Kerry campaign deep in al-Qaqaa."
Of course, that's what they thought four years ago, and we know how that turned out.
On the other hand, the President has plummeted another point in my composite, seeming to indicate that the al Qaqaa "story" is becoming the DUI of 2004. At this rate, by next Tuesday John Kerry will be up two points nationally, and we can all go out and start digging our backyard bomb shelters.
Right now I'll be happy if the bleeding stops tomorrow. That "bit of a bump," if it comes, will be gravy.
Electoral College: Bush 219, Kerry 163 (tossups 156)
-Nevada moves from "leaning Bush" to tossup
-New Mexico moves from tossup to "leaning Bush"
-Oregon moves from "leaning Kerry" to tossup
PROJECTIONS:
Popular Vote: Bush 50.6%, Kerry 48.0% (Bush +2.6 - down 0.7%)
Electoral College: Bush 282, Kerry 256 (no change)
TOSSUP MARGINS:
-Colorado: Kerry +1.0 (Same analysis as yesterday. George Bush will carry this state. Period.)
-Florida: Bush +2.1 (See the KerrySpot story linked above. Team Bush believes the President is leading here beyond the margin of error. Isn't reflected in the public polling, but his lead has been inching ever upward this week.)
-Hawaii: Bush +0.9 (Should the President make an Election Day surprise visit to the Islands?)
-Iowa: Bush +1.3
-Michigan: Kerry +1.0 (See the KerrySpot link. BC04 thinks they can pick up this state as well.)
-Minnesota: Bush +2.0
-Nevada: Bush +3.5
-New Hampshire: Kerry +2.4
-New Jersey: TIED (Advantage Kerry)
-Ohio: Kerry +2.4 (This state continues to trend away from the President. Perhaps Ah-nuld's joint appearance with Dubya tomorrow can turn things around.)
-Oregon: Kerry +4.0
-Pennsylvania: Kerry +2.0 (Like Michigan, a tantalizing Electoral morsel seemingly within Bush's grasp. Grabbing either would offset the loss of Ohio. But GDub has been within two points in the Keystone state for weeks and hasn't been able to get over that hump. With Governor Ed Rendell openly disenfranchising some 12,000 overseas military voters - a net of about 6,000 of the 100,000 or so votes Bush would need, it's hard to see where that additional oomph is going to come from.)
-Wisconsin: Bush +0.3 (The Cheeser state seems to be trending ponderously toward Kerry as Minnesota has been toward Bush.)
Today's bottom line: a mixed bag. Bush sits at 291 EVs, 287 if Hawaii is a fluke. Not enough to absorb having Florida sued away from him, though if his internal polling is correct and he's ahead there by more than three or four points, that particular threat diminishes proportionately. Would have to hold onto Iowa and either Minnesota or Wisconsin. Flipping one of Michigan, Ohio, or Pennsylvania would negate that vulnerability.
Unlike the national horserace figure, there just isn't a common thread running through the "battleground" state-by-state numbers. The thing to generally do is look at the national margin and assume that the state numbers will more or less follow it, barring any local issue-inspired exceptions.
And, of course, the national numbers are moving toward Kerry.
Here's hoping that Matt Dowd knows something I don't know.
UPDATE: I notice I've been leaving out my poll averages on the U.S. Senate races around the country. I'll post final calls on Monday, complete with more numbers than a telephone directory, but here it is as of the date of this post, summarized:
GOP pickups: Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota
Democrat pickups: Alaska, Colorado, Illinois
Net result: GOP +3
Poll Composite: Bush 48.3%, Kerry 45.9% (Bush +2.4 – down 0.8%)
On the one hand, NYTrogate has blown up in John Kerry's face, his campaign is now trying to run away from this latest Big Media hit piece fiasco, and the Bushies are exhibiting increasing optimism, almost like they're moving in for the kill:
"According to the Bushies, the last few days have seen a huge burst of momentum in their numbers. They think Bush is ahead by a few points nationally. They expect the next round of tracking polls to show a bit of a bump.
"Finally, the ammo dump story appears to have left the Kerry campaign deep in al-Qaqaa."
Of course, that's what they thought four years ago, and we know how that turned out.
On the other hand, the President has plummeted another point in my composite, seeming to indicate that the al Qaqaa "story" is becoming the DUI of 2004. At this rate, by next Tuesday John Kerry will be up two points nationally, and we can all go out and start digging our backyard bomb shelters.
Right now I'll be happy if the bleeding stops tomorrow. That "bit of a bump," if it comes, will be gravy.
Electoral College: Bush 219, Kerry 163 (tossups 156)
-Nevada moves from "leaning Bush" to tossup
-New Mexico moves from tossup to "leaning Bush"
-Oregon moves from "leaning Kerry" to tossup
PROJECTIONS:
Popular Vote: Bush 50.6%, Kerry 48.0% (Bush +2.6 - down 0.7%)
Electoral College: Bush 282, Kerry 256 (no change)
TOSSUP MARGINS:
-Colorado: Kerry +1.0 (Same analysis as yesterday. George Bush will carry this state. Period.)
-Florida: Bush +2.1 (See the KerrySpot story linked above. Team Bush believes the President is leading here beyond the margin of error. Isn't reflected in the public polling, but his lead has been inching ever upward this week.)
-Hawaii: Bush +0.9 (Should the President make an Election Day surprise visit to the Islands?)
-Iowa: Bush +1.3
-Michigan: Kerry +1.0 (See the KerrySpot link. BC04 thinks they can pick up this state as well.)
-Minnesota: Bush +2.0
-Nevada: Bush +3.5
-New Hampshire: Kerry +2.4
-New Jersey: TIED (Advantage Kerry)
-Ohio: Kerry +2.4 (This state continues to trend away from the President. Perhaps Ah-nuld's joint appearance with Dubya tomorrow can turn things around.)
-Oregon: Kerry +4.0
-Pennsylvania: Kerry +2.0 (Like Michigan, a tantalizing Electoral morsel seemingly within Bush's grasp. Grabbing either would offset the loss of Ohio. But GDub has been within two points in the Keystone state for weeks and hasn't been able to get over that hump. With Governor Ed Rendell openly disenfranchising some 12,000 overseas military voters - a net of about 6,000 of the 100,000 or so votes Bush would need, it's hard to see where that additional oomph is going to come from.)
-Wisconsin: Bush +0.3 (The Cheeser state seems to be trending ponderously toward Kerry as Minnesota has been toward Bush.)
Today's bottom line: a mixed bag. Bush sits at 291 EVs, 287 if Hawaii is a fluke. Not enough to absorb having Florida sued away from him, though if his internal polling is correct and he's ahead there by more than three or four points, that particular threat diminishes proportionately. Would have to hold onto Iowa and either Minnesota or Wisconsin. Flipping one of Michigan, Ohio, or Pennsylvania would negate that vulnerability.
Unlike the national horserace figure, there just isn't a common thread running through the "battleground" state-by-state numbers. The thing to generally do is look at the national margin and assume that the state numbers will more or less follow it, barring any local issue-inspired exceptions.
And, of course, the national numbers are moving toward Kerry.
Here's hoping that Matt Dowd knows something I don't know.
UPDATE: I notice I've been leaving out my poll averages on the U.S. Senate races around the country. I'll post final calls on Monday, complete with more numbers than a telephone directory, but here it is as of the date of this post, summarized:
GOP pickups: Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota
Democrat pickups: Alaska, Colorado, Illinois
Net result: GOP +3
posted by JASmius at 6:20 PM
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