Wednesday, October 27, 2004

E-minus 6 days and counting....

Ya know how when you open a can of soda it fizzes a lot...?

Poll Composite: Bush 48.8%, Kerry 45.6% (Bush +3.2 – down 1.0%)

Ruh-row; could Qaqaagate have taken a bite out of Bush before the story began to collapse of its own absurdity and partisan malice? Will the latter generate a rebound in the next couple of days? Stay tuned.

Electoral College: Bush 219, Kerry 170 (tossups 149)

-Arkansas moves from tossup to “leaning Bush”
-Nevada moves from tossup to “leaning Bush”
-New Mexico moves from “leaning Bush” to tossup
-New Jersey moves from “leaning Kerry” to tossup
-Pennsylvania moves from “leaning Kerry” to tossup


Popular Vote: Bush 50.9%, Kerry 47.6% (Bush +3.3 - down 1.1%)

Electoral College: Bush 282, Kerry 256

Kerry flips Colorado, Michigan, and Ohio; Bush flips Minnesota


-Colorado: Kerry +4.0 (Don’t panic. My un-weighted state polling average has a seven-day window, the only survey from this state in the past week is Zogby’s, and he’s notorious for under-sampling Republicans in his state polls. Just ask Senator Ron Strickland. He’s also the only pollster to show Lurch with a lead in this state all year long. What else explains Kerry’s recent pullout?)

-Florida: Bush +2.1
-Hawaii: Bush +0.9
-Iowa: Bush +2.0
-Michigan: Kerry +0.5
-Minnesota: TIED (allotted to Bush)
-New Hampshire: Kerry +2.4
-New Jersey: TIED (allotted to Kerry)
-New Mexico: Bush +3.5
-Ohio: Kerry +2.0 (The day’s big flip. But only on the strength of an LA Times poll showing Kerry up six; that’s an outlier if I’ve ever seen one. Click here and here for the reasons why.)

-Pennsylvania: Kerry +3.5
-Wisconsin: Bush +0.5

Today’s bottom line: strip out the aforementioned two polling aberrations in Colorado and Ohio, concede the two ties and Paradise to Mr. French, and that leaves Bush with 297 Electoral Votes, and his opponent with the task of suing in Florida and at least one other “red” state.

Once again, Florida is the key. Bear in mind in this context the primal constitutional role of state legislatures in determining their states’ presidential Electors, and that Florida is a Republican state. If ‘Pubbies in Tallahassee are prepared to put their feet down on Kerry’s telegraphed post-election insurrection, this cancer on American democracy can be smushed in its tracks.

If, however, they run for the tall grass and let the courts decide the matter, well….