CQ Predicts 2006 Status Quo Ante

In this case, CQ is Congressional Quarterly, and their forecast for the mid-term elections looks like this:

SENATE:

Safe Democrats: Feinstein (CA), Lieberman/Lamont (CT), Carper (DE), Akaka (HI), Kennedy (MA), Conrad (ND), Hillary (NY), Kohl (WI), Byrd (WV)

Favored Democrats: Nelson (FL), Stabenow (MI), Bingaman (NM), Sanders (VT)

Leaning Democrats: Cardin/Mfume (MD), Nelson (NE), Menendez (NJ), Cantwell (WA)

Dem Pickup: Casey (PA) (defeating Rick Santorum)


Safe Republicans: Lugar (IN), Snowe (ME), Lott (MS)

Favored Republicans: Kyl (AZ), Ensign, (NV), Allen (VA)

Leaning Republicans: Talent (MO), Burns (MT), DeWine (OH), Chafee (RI), Frist seat (TN)

GOP Pickup: Kennedy (MN) (winning Mark Dayton's seat - my call; CQ has it a tossup)

I have a few quibbles here and there. Debbie Stabenow belongs in the "leaning Dem" category, as sagging Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm is going to be an anchor around the necks of other Donks on that state's ticket. I believe that Tom Kean is going to take the Jersey seat and Michael Steele is going to do the same in Maryland. On the other hand, Mike DeWine and Linc Chafee richly deserve to go down and are probably a little overrated in CQ's analysis, so even my nitpicks nullify each other.

End result? Stalemate. Still a 55-45 GOP upper chamber, only with a new (and hopefully less feckless, more savvy and aggressive) majority leader - John Kyl, perhaps? I could certainly live with that.

~ ~ ~

HOUSE:

Safe seats: Democrats 181, Republicans 179

Favored: Republicans 28, Democrats 11

Leans: Republicans 17, Democrats 10

Tossups: Republicans 6, Democrats 3 (Derived from the 2004 presidential vote percentages n each district)

Final tally: The GOP retains the majority by a margin of 230-205, or a net two-seat loss.

Call this the Alice in Wonderland election: all that furious running just to stay in the same place. Afterwards all that will be left for al Donka, like the grin from the Cheshire cat, will be the furious for the fourth straight cycle.

Then they'll finally start re-learning the lessons of the Clinton era. Because after people lose enough times, how they get back to the winner's circle matters less and less compared to just getting there. Because the angry left will have finally burned up all their clout and credibility.

And also, you know, Hillary's coronational bandwagon will already have gotten underway.

UPDATE: Jay Cost has more inside details on the Dems' latest imminent underachievement. Meanwhle, Jonah Goldberg captures the big picture n the L.A. Times with the following quip:

Just this week, Baer and Andrei Cherny — founders of a new, big-idea journal, "Democracy" — penned an op-ed article on this page calling for the pursuit of Big Ideas. In response to this effort, my fellow Times columnist Jonathan Chait says, and I'm not making this up: "Ideas? Feh." A more eloquent statement was posted on the liberal blog TPM Cafe: "The problem isn't getting people to believe in something — people can believe in anything. The problem is getting them to care." That captures the essence of liberalism's current plight. If it's not about emotions — caring, hating, feeling — it's about tactics. Big ideas have about as much animating force in liberal ranks today as Calvinism does at a porn studio.

You want a reason why 2006 won't be the Donks' 1994? That'll do nicely.