Five Dodged Bullets

North Korea launched its Taepodong-II ICBM today, along with, according to initial reports, two short-range ballistic missiles, and by subsequent updates, as many as three [make that four] more, one of which may have been a second Taepodong-II:

North Korea launched a long-range missile Wednesday that may be capable of reaching the United States but it failed after 35 or 40 seconds, two State Department officials said.

The missile was one of at least three that were fired. The two others were short-range missiles. All landed in the Sea of Japan, said the Japanese government, which was unable to confirm that they included a long-range missile.

The officials in Washington, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the long-range missile was the Taepodong-2, North Korea's most advanced missile with a range of up to 9,320 miles.

The launch came after weeks of speculation that the North was preparing to test its advanced Taepodong-2 missile from a site on its northeast coast. The preparations had generated stern warnings from the United States and Japan, which had threatened possible economic sanctions in response.

There are three possible ways to look at this NoKo "test":

1) The missiles were all pieces of crap manufactured by incompetents and, after all the "Hey, look at me!" posturing of Kim jong-iL, this is a huge embarrassment for the gargoyled, pot-bellied despot;

2) The missiles were or were not pieces of crap, but got shot down either way by U.S. anti-missile batteries brought in-theater in the past few weeks to counter this threat.

Personally I'd be happier with #2, as it would send a far better message to Kim, as well as the mullahgarchy in Iran, that his drive for nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver them is a prohibitively futile endeavor that can only get him and his regime terminated in unpleasantly swift and violent fashion. #1 will just piss him off and cause him to redouble his efforts, and sooner or later the tech gliches will get fixed and he'll get one through, whether against one of our allies or ourselves.

Why the above matters is explained by what's behind door #3:

CNN reports from its Situation Room that the missiles fell into the sea just offshore of the northern island of Hokkaido. That seems to indicate that North Korea sent the missile on a route that would have taken [it] towards Alaska, or perhaps a polar route to North America. Shooting missiles at the US on our national holiday guarantees a rather hostile reaction from America. [emphasis added]

Recall that NORAD went on heightened alert over the weekend. If the Taepodong-II was headed our way, and we shot the mother down before it could even reach Japanese airspace, we may not just have sent a HUGE message to the NoKos that they cannot threaten us with weapons of mass destruction, but possibly averted an actual conventional or WMD attack against our territory.

That, again, is door #2. If the facts are actually behind door #1, we may just have gotten lucky. In that case, the message Kim needs to hear - that he tries anything like this again and we flatten whatever portions of his country aren't already in ruins by his own hand - will need to be sent in more overt fashion, which means, in light of the past twelve years' relentless appeasement, that it is highly unlikely to be sent.

If that's the case, it means that there will be more tests, and sooner or later our luck will run out.

[h/t: CQ]