Latest Election Projections

Here are my latest, with, like the old box of Cracker Jacks, a little surprise inside:

ARIZONA: Kyl (R) 56%, Pederson (D) 44%

CONNECTICUT: Lieberman (I) 53%, Lamont (D) 41%, Schlesinger (R) 6%

MICHIGAN: Stabenow (D) 54%, Bouchard (R) 46%

MINNESOTA: Klobuchar (D) 52%, Kennedy (R) 48%

MISSOURI: Talent (R) 52%, McCaskill (D) 48%

MONTANA: Tester (D) 51%, Burns (R) 49%

NEW JERSEY: Kean (R) 50.3%, Menendez (D) 49.7%

OHIO: Brown (D) 52%, DeWine (R) 48%

PENNSYLVANIA: Casey (D) 54%, Santorum (R) 46%

RHODE ISLAND: Whitehouse (D) 51%, Chafee (R) 49%

TENNESSEE: Corker (R) 52%, Ford (D) 48%

VIRGINIA: Allen (R) 52%, Webb (D) 48%

WASHINGTON: Cantwell (D) 54%, McGavick (R) 46%

And now, for the tease you've all been waiting for....

MARYLAND: Steele (R) 50.2%, Cardin (D) 49.8%

By my calculations, that's four Democrat pickups (Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island) partially offset by two (yes, razor-thin) Republican pickups (Maryland, New Jersey). As of today, that would limit overall Dem gains to two seats, and the 110th U.S. Senate would hold 53 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and one Independent. And even if Steele and Kean do fall short, the GOP will still retain control.

Meanwhile, on the House side, I have reduced my projection of Democrat gains to thirteen seats. Here's why.

On the one hand, GOP incumbent Mike Sodrel has inched back ahead of Democrat challenger Baron Hill in Indiana-9; but on the other, Congressional Quarterly, on whom I am reliant for the non-tossup portion of my House scorecard, has moved Colorado-7 into the "leans Dem" category even though my projection still shows Republican Rick O'Donnell just nosing out Democrat Ed Perlmutter. And, not to get Triexian on your buttocks so early in the AM, but on the third hand, the latest (10/18) Survey USA poll of New York-26, which CQ also has in the "leans Dem" column, shows GOP Representative Tom Reynolds three points ahead of Donk challenger Jack Davis. That's an eight-point move toward the GOP candidate in SUSA's numbers since its previous look two weeks earlier. Accordingly, I have now expanded my "tossup" list to include CQ's "leans Dem" column for GOP-held seats.

So, to sum up, as of today, the 110th House of Representatives would hold 219 Republicans and 216 Democrats. Barring any successful "recruitment" drives either way, the spectre of Speaker Pelosi - faux church pew, gay power lapel button, saggy wrinkled cleavage and all - will, just barely, stay in the realm of very, very bad dreams.

Or at least until the next update....