Monday, November 06, 2006

The Clouds Are Lifting?

Well, not literally, at least from my office window. But metaphorically, it seems that there has been an optimism outbreak on the center-right.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman cites the following factors heralding a "good day" for Republicans tomorrow:

***The generic congressional preference polls are showing dramatic rightward movement across the board.

***Republican enthusiasm is growing.

***Independents are breaking toward the GOP.

***More conservatives are deciding to hold their noses (as opposed to severing them to spite their faces) and "come home" rather than stay home.

***The GOP's 72-hour GOTV machine is unstoppable and light-years ahead of anythng the Demosaurs have.

***The GOP's numbers on the war, "personal values," and the economy are rebounding, John Kerry is an anchor around Donk necks, fueling a more optimistic outlook reflected in improved "right track/wrong track" numbers.

You want jaw-dropping optimism? AmSpec senior editor and co-founder of the "cut & run" conservatives Quin Hillyer, the man who has been at war with his own party all year long over all their myriad imperfections, today predicts that the GOP will retain control of both Houses of Congress. Given how much pride he had to have swallowed to teeth-gnashingly publish THAT column, the metaphorical wind MUST be at Republicans' backs.

And if you need further sea-change evidence - 0r, rather, pollsters belatedly realizing how far off they've been (all in one direction) and wanting to preserve their reputations to avoid being "Zogbyfied," (h/t TKS) - check out how one of the self-styled flagships of the Left is reacting to this eerily familiar electoral convergence.

However, Jim Geraghty's Jedi master friend warns, "Before they hatch, your chickens, do not count." Sound advice, just on general principles, though I find it inconceivable that any Pachyderm could get complacent now. To do so, now, and turn a 1996 into a 1986, leading to 1974 consequences that might as well make the whole election a reverse-1994, well, we would deserve every last one of them.

Am I optimistic? My gut says yes; but I don't go by my gut (takes too long to walk around it), I go by my numbers.

And that call is still to come.

UPDATE: Check out these Pew Research internals - more evidence that the pollsters are belatedly seeing not the worm turning, but where the worm has been all along.