Let's Handicap 2008! (Part III)
[Ed. note: My browser and Blogger don't like each other. This is take two of this post. Thank God I hadn't gotten further into it, or the paramedics would doubtless already be on their way.]
It's the dinner hour (okay, maybe in Hawaii, but work with me here), which means it's time to determine if there will be any impediment at all to America's comprehensive national suicide. Those of you who still haven't scraped all the snorted particulate matter and other biological waste off your monitors would be best advised to take the contraption out in your backyards and blast-cleanse it with a large garden hose.
Just to review, we’ve taken a gander ahead at the next election cycle and seen that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States because the Clintons always win regardless of the political landscape, and the U.S. Senate will most likely fall another seat towards the Democrats for a 52-48 GOP deficit in the upper chamber.
Is there any silver lining to be found in the House of Representatives? Is it remotely possible that a wave comparable to last week’s will sweep the Donks out as unceremoniously as they were swept in?
Let’s define terms one more time:
SAFE SEAT: Republican in district carried by Bush in 2004/Democrat in district carried by Kerry in 2004, incumbent won by ten points or more.
LOW-RISK SEAT: Republican in district carried by Kerry in 2004/Democrat in district carried by Bush in 2004, incumbent won by ten points or more.
MODERATE-RISK SEAT: Republican in district carried by Bush in 2004/Democrat in district carried by Kerry in 2004, incumbent won by single-digit margin.
HIGH-RISK SEAT: Republican in district carried by Kerry in 2004/Democrat in district carried by Bush in 2004, incumbent won by single-digit margin.
No, I’m not going to go through all 435 seats. Just the fifty-three deemed competitive by RCP.
Remember, Republicans need eighteen seats to take back the majority.
Here we go….
SAFE GOP: None
LOW-RISK GOP: None
MODERATE-RISK GOP: 18
Cubin (WY-AL)
Hayes (NC-8)
Buchanan (FL-13)
Porter (NV-3)
Ferguson (NJ-7)
Roskam (IL-6)
Schmidt (OH-2)
Price (OH-15)
Drake (VA-2)
Musgrave (CO-4)
Doolittle (CA-4)
Reynolds (NY-26)
Kuhl (NY-29)
Sali (ID-1)
Walberg (MI-7)
Heller (NV-2)
Knollenberg (MI-9)
Chabot (OH-1)
HIGH-RISK GOP: 6
Wilson (NM-1)
Reichert (WA-8)
Walsh (NY-25)
Gerlach (PA-6)
Shays (CT-4)
Kirk (IL-10)
SAFE DEM: 4
Perlmutter (CO-7)
Sestak (PA-7)
Murphy (CT-5)
Bradley (IA-1)
LOW-RISK DEM: 3
Space (OH-18)
Ellsworth (IN-8)
Giffords (AZ-8)
MODERATE-RISK DEM: 6
Hodes (NH-2)
Klein (FL-22)
Yarmuth (KY-3)
Loebsack (IA-2)
Murphy (PA-8)
Mahoney (FL-16)
HIGH-RISK DEM: 16
Lampson (TX-22)
Arcuri (NY-24)
Donnelly (IN-2)
Shuler (NC-11)
Carney (PA-10)
Gillibrand (NY-20)
Walz (MN-1)
McNerny (CA-11)
Mitchell (AZ-5)
Altmire (PA-4)
Porter (NH-1)
Boyda (KS-2)
Hill (IN-9)
Hall (NY-19)
Kagen (WI-8)
Courtney (CT-2)
Bundling together the high- and moderate-risk seats for each side, we arrive at a continuum bounded on one side by a twenty-two seat Republican comeback that would put the majority back in sane, responsible hands, and the second half of the undoing of the original 1994 Gingrich revolution, putting the Donks back to 256 seats. Split the difference and it’s a one-seat gain for the Democrats, a virtual wash, and the further entrenchment of the harrowing new status quo.
~ ~ ~
So that’s what 2008 looks like from my besieged little perch two years before the next trip to the electoral woodshed. It’s worth exactly what it cost you to follow this bleak trilogy to its conclusion.
Conclusions are, in fact, what I have really not drawn (other than President Hillary). In politics, two years is, indeed, an eternity. All kinds of things could happen – witness what 9/11 did to Democrat hopes in ’02 and ’04. The unraveling of the GWOT could be rapid and catastrophic, the Dems’ orgy of partisan revenge and legislative extremism could re-open the myopic eyes of idiotic "moderates" and trigger a huge backlash. Or Republicans could stay in the tall grass to which they’ve fled, meekly accept all the misdirected blame for Democrat disasters vomited upon them by the Enemy Media, and rampaging jackasses could steamroll their way past it all to de facto dictatorship. And with Hillary ruling the country, that would not be hyperbole.
I’m only looking at the likely range of possible outcomes and the minimum progress Republicans have to make to get back the majorities they squandered by their relapse of RINOitis. While doing so in both houses is conceivable, just about everything will have to break our way in order for us to get there. And in all honesty, we’ll have to make some breaks of our own as well.
But does a party with a lame duck president going limp on every issue and appointing one of his squishy cronies as RNC chairman instead of dynamic African-American leader like Maryland Lieutenant-Governor Michael Steele, and a House caucus in an obscene rush to re-elect the same leadership that blazed the trail back into the minority wilderness have it within itself to do what’s necessary to regain power?
Does a chicken have lips?
It's the dinner hour (okay, maybe in Hawaii, but work with me here), which means it's time to determine if there will be any impediment at all to America's comprehensive national suicide. Those of you who still haven't scraped all the snorted particulate matter and other biological waste off your monitors would be best advised to take the contraption out in your backyards and blast-cleanse it with a large garden hose.
Just to review, we’ve taken a gander ahead at the next election cycle and seen that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States because the Clintons always win regardless of the political landscape, and the U.S. Senate will most likely fall another seat towards the Democrats for a 52-48 GOP deficit in the upper chamber.
Is there any silver lining to be found in the House of Representatives? Is it remotely possible that a wave comparable to last week’s will sweep the Donks out as unceremoniously as they were swept in?
Let’s define terms one more time:
SAFE SEAT: Republican in district carried by Bush in 2004/Democrat in district carried by Kerry in 2004, incumbent won by ten points or more.
LOW-RISK SEAT: Republican in district carried by Kerry in 2004/Democrat in district carried by Bush in 2004, incumbent won by ten points or more.
MODERATE-RISK SEAT: Republican in district carried by Bush in 2004/Democrat in district carried by Kerry in 2004, incumbent won by single-digit margin.
HIGH-RISK SEAT: Republican in district carried by Kerry in 2004/Democrat in district carried by Bush in 2004, incumbent won by single-digit margin.
No, I’m not going to go through all 435 seats. Just the fifty-three deemed competitive by RCP.
Remember, Republicans need eighteen seats to take back the majority.
Here we go….
SAFE GOP: None
LOW-RISK GOP: None
MODERATE-RISK GOP: 18
Cubin (WY-AL)
Hayes (NC-8)
Buchanan (FL-13)
Porter (NV-3)
Ferguson (NJ-7)
Roskam (IL-6)
Schmidt (OH-2)
Price (OH-15)
Drake (VA-2)
Musgrave (CO-4)
Doolittle (CA-4)
Reynolds (NY-26)
Kuhl (NY-29)
Sali (ID-1)
Walberg (MI-7)
Heller (NV-2)
Knollenberg (MI-9)
Chabot (OH-1)
HIGH-RISK GOP: 6
Wilson (NM-1)
Reichert (WA-8)
Walsh (NY-25)
Gerlach (PA-6)
Shays (CT-4)
Kirk (IL-10)
SAFE DEM: 4
Perlmutter (CO-7)
Sestak (PA-7)
Murphy (CT-5)
Bradley (IA-1)
LOW-RISK DEM: 3
Space (OH-18)
Ellsworth (IN-8)
Giffords (AZ-8)
MODERATE-RISK DEM: 6
Hodes (NH-2)
Klein (FL-22)
Yarmuth (KY-3)
Loebsack (IA-2)
Murphy (PA-8)
Mahoney (FL-16)
HIGH-RISK DEM: 16
Lampson (TX-22)
Arcuri (NY-24)
Donnelly (IN-2)
Shuler (NC-11)
Carney (PA-10)
Gillibrand (NY-20)
Walz (MN-1)
McNerny (CA-11)
Mitchell (AZ-5)
Altmire (PA-4)
Porter (NH-1)
Boyda (KS-2)
Hill (IN-9)
Hall (NY-19)
Kagen (WI-8)
Courtney (CT-2)
Bundling together the high- and moderate-risk seats for each side, we arrive at a continuum bounded on one side by a twenty-two seat Republican comeback that would put the majority back in sane, responsible hands, and the second half of the undoing of the original 1994 Gingrich revolution, putting the Donks back to 256 seats. Split the difference and it’s a one-seat gain for the Democrats, a virtual wash, and the further entrenchment of the harrowing new status quo.
~ ~ ~
So that’s what 2008 looks like from my besieged little perch two years before the next trip to the electoral woodshed. It’s worth exactly what it cost you to follow this bleak trilogy to its conclusion.
Conclusions are, in fact, what I have really not drawn (other than President Hillary). In politics, two years is, indeed, an eternity. All kinds of things could happen – witness what 9/11 did to Democrat hopes in ’02 and ’04. The unraveling of the GWOT could be rapid and catastrophic, the Dems’ orgy of partisan revenge and legislative extremism could re-open the myopic eyes of idiotic "moderates" and trigger a huge backlash. Or Republicans could stay in the tall grass to which they’ve fled, meekly accept all the misdirected blame for Democrat disasters vomited upon them by the Enemy Media, and rampaging jackasses could steamroll their way past it all to de facto dictatorship. And with Hillary ruling the country, that would not be hyperbole.
I’m only looking at the likely range of possible outcomes and the minimum progress Republicans have to make to get back the majorities they squandered by their relapse of RINOitis. While doing so in both houses is conceivable, just about everything will have to break our way in order for us to get there. And in all honesty, we’ll have to make some breaks of our own as well.
But does a party with a lame duck president going limp on every issue and appointing one of his squishy cronies as RNC chairman instead of dynamic African-American leader like Maryland Lieutenant-Governor Michael Steele, and a House caucus in an obscene rush to re-elect the same leadership that blazed the trail back into the minority wilderness have it within itself to do what’s necessary to regain power?
Does a chicken have lips?
posted by JASmius at 9:56 PM
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