From Russia, With Contempt

Whether the new crypto-Czar of Russia has the proverbial Iranian hooks in his jaws, or he is a real-life version of Vlad Masters, Vladimir Putin's subtlety as a renewed enemy of the United States is, to anybody paying full attention, at a clear end.

Or so I gather from what he said the other day:

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow could take "retaliatory steps" if Washington proceeds with plans to build a missile defense system for Europe, including possibly aiming nuclear weapons at targets on the continent.

Speaking to foreign reporters days before he travels to Germany for the annual summit with President Bush and the other Group of Eight leaders, Putin assailed the White House plan to place a radar system in the Czech Republic and interceptor missiles in neighboring Poland. Washington says the system is needed to counter a potential threat from Iran.

In an interview released Monday, Putin suggested that Russia may respond to the threat by aiming its nuclear weapons at Europe.

"If a part of the strategic nuclear potential of the United States appears in Europe and, in the opinion of our military specialists, will threaten us, then we will have to take appropriate steps in response. What kind of steps? We will have to have new targets in Europe," Putin said, according to a transcript released by the Kremlin. These could be targeted with "ballistic or cruise missiles or maybe a completely new system" he said.

If the enemy of my enemy is my friend, isn't the friend of my enemy also my enemy? Whether or not Putin is making such threats of his own accord or in defense of his mullahgarchic clients (or masters; it's kind of difficult to tell which is the horse and which is the rider in that relationship), they don't sound like the kind words of an ally.

Of course, neither do these, but they do have the ring of domestic political hatreds from which they were doubtless lifted:

We look at what has been created in North America - horror, torture, homelessness, Guantanamo, detention without courts or investigation.

Coming from a former KGB spook, that's really funny. I'd almost call it irony or satire if I thought "Plasmius" had a sense of humor.

I do credit him with a sense of cunning, however. After the aforequoted bluster, Vlad did a 180 and offered a counter-proposal:

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin presented Bush with a surprise counterproposal built around an old Soviet-era radar system in Azerbaijan rather than in Poland and the Czech Republic. Bush said he would consider it.

On Friday, Putin offered yet another alternative, saying missile defense interceptors could be located in Turkey, Iraq or at sea.

Here's the caveat, though:

Azerbaijan's foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov, said Friday that the former Soviet republic is ready to consider proposed joint U.S.-Russian use of its radar facility. [emphasis added]

This is a problem, as the good folks at Stratfor point out (via The Tank):

Moscow's specific offer is for the United States to use Russia's own radar base at Qabala, Azerbaijan. The problem here is that Russia knows a thing or two about espionage. Closely guarded American technological developments will be at risk, as will communication signals with any larger BMD system.

These communications and the site itself will remain exceptionally vulnerable to Russian interference — anything from toying with locally obtained supplies to physically destroying key facilities. And a BMD system is just the sort of thing that must be at its best at the height of a crisis.

While Iran's military capabilities are a pale shadow compared to those of a first-world power, even Tehran could probably jam signals in and out of southern Azerbaijan — making the whole exercise useless.

These factors ought to make Putin's purported "offer" a non-starter. Will Bush see it that way? You'd like to think he would, but we know how much Dubya overrates his ability to read people - or, as he once put it about Putin, to "look into their souls". And we know how obstinately loyal he is to those he considers to be his friends.

Maybe the President was just being polite when he told Vlad he'd consider his offer. Or maybe he still considers the proto-Czar his friend and trusts him implicitly. Given how harrowingly unwilling he is to confront the mullahs, over their hostage-taking, terrorist-sponsoring, meddling in Iraq and Afghanistan, or drive for nukes, and that Russia is their principle vendor, I'm not sanguine about GDub's residual canniness overshadowing his battle fatigue.

UPDATE: Austin Bay, via Powerline, sez Putin is bluffing:

Despite the sensationalist “Cold War” revival rhetoric, mutual interests bind the US and Russia –and Russia and Europe. The Russian threat to “re-target” missiles and point them at Europe was bluster and threat. That’s right, Mr. Putin, threaten to destroy your consumers. Assuming Russia survived its limited war with the US and Europe, its Atlantic-less future would be rather limited: a trans-Ural oil vassal of China might be a better deal than Islamist satrap....

As I’ve argued many times, the missile defense argument is a charade. Russia needs missile protection – from the east and south. It also needs western allies.

Bay's right, as far as his words go. His error is in failing to recognize that that's not how Vlad sees the issue. Remember that he's helping to arm Iran with nuclear and ballistic missile technology and, at the very least, running interference for North Korea's WMD ambitions. He's doing so because (1) his regime needs the cash and, more importantly, (2) he pines for the good old days when the Soviet Empire dominated half the planet and stood poised on the brink of global conquest, and wants Russia to be a great power again. That doesn't auger for his seeing Russian interests as tied to the West, but rather for being an enemy of the West challenging the United States for world control.

All it would take to set Russia and the US on a collision course toward all-out war is the Iranians making good on Adolph Ahmadinejad's blustering threats. Yeah, it would have the outcome Bay describes. But burgeoning dictators usually are beset by delusions of invincibility. Why would the Russkie "Plasmius" be any different?