Kerry's Achilles heel: base enthusiasm
There are two competing theories about poll sampling. One is that it should be in the same proportion to the population being sampled. The other is that it should be variable, in order to take into account voter enthusiasm or lack thereof at any given moment during a campaign.
You can count me as a disciple of the former, as the latter seems far too easy for bias to exploit. However, blogger Dan Straight references roiled poll samples to help explain the sudden variance in polls the last month or so that was never present before:
"The battleground surveys seem to show Bush holding steady at worst... The state-by-state numbers on Tradesports.com come up with the same breakdown as VP: Bush 295, Kerry 243. I think the only difference between the two is that Tradesports gives Bush New Hampshire and Kerry Maine. Interestingly, when I looked a bit ago, the only races that were very close either way (ie, under 55.0 for either guy) were New Hampshire and Iowa, which were at 51.0 and 54.1 for Bush, respectively.)
"This suggests that the debate reenergized some of Kerry's previously demoralized base on the coasts, but didn't help him much where it counts. This renewed excitement among the base would also explain why there are suddently a lot more Democrats in many national surveys.
"But remember, a decent chunk of Kerry's base really doesn't like him - they just hate Bush. When Kerry looks like he might get rid of Bush, they get excited and tell pollsters they're definitely going to vote. When it looks like Bush will probably win, Kerry's base disappears. [my emphasis] I think this explains why there have been a few wild swings in the polling despite the fact that there really aren't many swing voters. It's not the people in the middle who are switching between Kerry and Bush - it's the people on the far left switching between Kerry and none of the above."
An intriguing hypothesis - and one to which I have long subscribed as relates to Kerry and the practicability of Bushophobia carrying him to victory all by itself, something I always found to be a dubious prospect at best.
The flaw in the ointment, though, is that from my reading of state-by-state polls, it isn't just on the coasts where Kerry is gaining. Two weeks ago the President was leading outside the margin of error in states totalling 301 Electoral Votes, which included almost every "battleground" state. As of this evening, that number was down to 213, the losses coming entirely in those same states. Similarly, if the tossups are forced one way or the other, two weeks ago Bush was up to 343 Electoral Votes, and now he's down to 297 (272 with a vote fraud discount figured in).
GDub is still winning, but the trends are moving in Kerry's direction. And they don't give any sign of slowing down, which bodes well for keeping his base perocolating.
That's the nature of momentum in any competition. You gain it either by generating it yourself through your own actions, or by benefitting from the mistakes or misfortune of your opponent(s). The President was bequeathed momentum in August by the Swiftboat Vets, and then he added to it with a home run Republican convention and rode it through September. Absent a significant pratfall on his part, Kerry's chances were dwindling toward the vanishing point.
A week ago Bush gave Kerry that pratfall - a mediocre debate performance that Big Media spun into a total disaster for him - and now Kerry is surging and Bush is back on his heels. Dubya's problem is that there is no opportunity left for him to score heavily enough to get back the momentum he lost in Coral Gables. The Big Media template for these debates has been set: "Kerry blowout" if Bush holds his own, a "tie" if he does so well that he hypnotizes Kerry into singing "I'm a Little Teapot," complete with pantomime. There simply will not be a media report crediting the President with a victory in either of the remaining debates. And so most of the electorate will believe.
Consequently, the best Team Bush can realistically hope for is that their poll standing doesn't decline any further, since they're barely hanging onto the lead with their peeling fingernails. And God forbid that Dubya makes a prominent gaffe, or has another off night - then you can kiss the whole thing goodbye.
I personally think that the President will do a lot better tomorrow night in St. Louis. He'll have taken an afternoon nap, so he'll be rested. And from his campaigning this week, he seems to be loaded for bear and possessing of his second wind.
But will it matter? Will a far superior outting tomorrow dispel the doubts created last week? Or has the Dem/press spin of "Bush on the ropes" getting "desperate" set like concrete, beyond the President's ability to break out of it?
Hope it's the former, fear it's the latter.
You can count me as a disciple of the former, as the latter seems far too easy for bias to exploit. However, blogger Dan Straight references roiled poll samples to help explain the sudden variance in polls the last month or so that was never present before:
"The battleground surveys seem to show Bush holding steady at worst... The state-by-state numbers on Tradesports.com come up with the same breakdown as VP: Bush 295, Kerry 243. I think the only difference between the two is that Tradesports gives Bush New Hampshire and Kerry Maine. Interestingly, when I looked a bit ago, the only races that were very close either way (ie, under 55.0 for either guy) were New Hampshire and Iowa, which were at 51.0 and 54.1 for Bush, respectively.)
"This suggests that the debate reenergized some of Kerry's previously demoralized base on the coasts, but didn't help him much where it counts. This renewed excitement among the base would also explain why there are suddently a lot more Democrats in many national surveys.
"But remember, a decent chunk of Kerry's base really doesn't like him - they just hate Bush. When Kerry looks like he might get rid of Bush, they get excited and tell pollsters they're definitely going to vote. When it looks like Bush will probably win, Kerry's base disappears. [my emphasis] I think this explains why there have been a few wild swings in the polling despite the fact that there really aren't many swing voters. It's not the people in the middle who are switching between Kerry and Bush - it's the people on the far left switching between Kerry and none of the above."
An intriguing hypothesis - and one to which I have long subscribed as relates to Kerry and the practicability of Bushophobia carrying him to victory all by itself, something I always found to be a dubious prospect at best.
The flaw in the ointment, though, is that from my reading of state-by-state polls, it isn't just on the coasts where Kerry is gaining. Two weeks ago the President was leading outside the margin of error in states totalling 301 Electoral Votes, which included almost every "battleground" state. As of this evening, that number was down to 213, the losses coming entirely in those same states. Similarly, if the tossups are forced one way or the other, two weeks ago Bush was up to 343 Electoral Votes, and now he's down to 297 (272 with a vote fraud discount figured in).
GDub is still winning, but the trends are moving in Kerry's direction. And they don't give any sign of slowing down, which bodes well for keeping his base perocolating.
That's the nature of momentum in any competition. You gain it either by generating it yourself through your own actions, or by benefitting from the mistakes or misfortune of your opponent(s). The President was bequeathed momentum in August by the Swiftboat Vets, and then he added to it with a home run Republican convention and rode it through September. Absent a significant pratfall on his part, Kerry's chances were dwindling toward the vanishing point.
A week ago Bush gave Kerry that pratfall - a mediocre debate performance that Big Media spun into a total disaster for him - and now Kerry is surging and Bush is back on his heels. Dubya's problem is that there is no opportunity left for him to score heavily enough to get back the momentum he lost in Coral Gables. The Big Media template for these debates has been set: "Kerry blowout" if Bush holds his own, a "tie" if he does so well that he hypnotizes Kerry into singing "I'm a Little Teapot," complete with pantomime. There simply will not be a media report crediting the President with a victory in either of the remaining debates. And so most of the electorate will believe.
Consequently, the best Team Bush can realistically hope for is that their poll standing doesn't decline any further, since they're barely hanging onto the lead with their peeling fingernails. And God forbid that Dubya makes a prominent gaffe, or has another off night - then you can kiss the whole thing goodbye.
I personally think that the President will do a lot better tomorrow night in St. Louis. He'll have taken an afternoon nap, so he'll be rested. And from his campaigning this week, he seems to be loaded for bear and possessing of his second wind.
But will it matter? Will a far superior outting tomorrow dispel the doubts created last week? Or has the Dem/press spin of "Bush on the ropes" getting "desperate" set like concrete, beyond the President's ability to break out of it?
Hope it's the former, fear it's the latter.
posted by JASmius at 1:23 AM
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