The Final Call
The winner of the 2004 presidential election will be....
Uh-uh-uh. Keep reading, whilst you curse me for such obnoxious teasing. And whatever you do, don't look at the righthand side of the screen until I tell you....
Didn't blog much yesterday other than my daily campaign update. I figure I had good reason, since (1) I'm sick of "YOU DECIDE 2004!!!", (2) more Kerry updates aren't going to change any minds at this late date, no matter how entertaining they are, and (3) I turned forty yesterday and mourned my official geezerhood by devouring a 16-oz teriyaki New York steak. I figured it was only fair since from now on I'll be limited to rabbit food and rice cakes and glop that is "good for my colon."
If you want to catch up on the flailing of Kerry & Co. over the weekend, click here. I just uploaded a metric ton of links.
Now then, let's get the other housekeeping out of the way.
Poll Composite: Bush 47.9%, Kerry 46.5% (Bush +1.4 – down 0.2%)
So, on the last day of the (pre-)campaign, the President falls to his lowest point since before the GOP convention. The momentum is all with Kerry, Bush is finished, and Dems can begin celebrating with some festive beheadings of Republican captives, right?
Not so fast.
Remember the Fox tracking poll I discussed yesterday? Today's had Bush down two (48-46) today, and had the same wacked internals showing Kerry up by two amongst male voters. That, gentles, is crap. And after some more number-crunching today, I have additional evidence of its fecality.
In preparation for posting my final state-by-state calls, I went through the RCP archives to get the actual state horserace numbers. After I finished with that, I got an idea. I added up the state numbers for Bush and Kerry and weighted them according to proportion of the total Electoral College vote. My end result? Bush 51.2%, Kerry 48.4%.
As an added bonus, the final Harris poll came out this afternoon, showing the President leading 49-45. And when you adjust the Fox number for a more realistic male voting demographic, you get that very same score. Plug that into my polling composite and you get Bush 50.5%, Kerry 48.1%, a result only a little short of the state-by-state aggregate.
Suffice it to say, George W. Bush is leading by about two to three points nationally. (See the "high," "medium," and "low" projections at upper right.)
Now recall my discussion of figuring Democrat vote fraud into this equation. Projecting today's composite horserace score gives Dubya 50.1% of the popular vote, which reduces the vote fraud jeopardy (by my admittedly artibrary criteria) to states where he leads by a point or less.
Consequently, I believe we can dispense with the "low" projections that give Kerry a one-point PV win and the Electoral College 290-248.
So, yes, I'm predicting that George W. Bush will be re-elected to a second term as President of the United States.
I'll give you all a few moments to heave several huge sighs of relief.
And now, the roll call of the states....
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
ALABAMA (9 EVs): Bush 59.4%, Kerry 40.6%
ALASKA (3 EVs): Bush 62.0%, Kerry 32.6%
ARKANSAS (6 EVs): Bush 53.7%, Kerry 46.3%
ARIZONA (10 EVs): Bush 55.2%, Kerry 44.8%
CALIFORNIA (55 EVs): Kerry 54.3%, Bush 45.7%
COLORADO (9 EVs): Bush 53.0%, Kerry 46.7%
CONNECTICUT (7 EVs): Kerry 53.6%, Bush 43.3%
DELAWARE (3 EVs): Kerry 52.9%, Bush 44.7%
D.C. (3 EVs): Kerry 100.0%, Bush 0.0% (No, I'm not joking...)
FLORIDA (27 EVs): Bush 50.5%, Kerry 49.1%
GEORGIA (15 EVs): Bush 56.7%, Kerry 43.3%
HAWAII (4 EVs): Bush 50.5%, Kerry 49.5% (could be stolen by Kerry)
IDAHO (4 EVs): Bush 64.1%, Kerry 32.6%
ILLINOIS (21 EVs): Kerry 56.8%, Bush 43.2%
INDIANA (11 EVs): Bush 59.1%, Kerry 40.9%
IOWA (7 EVs): Bush 50.2%, Kerry 49.2% (could be stolen by Kerry)
KANSAS (6 EVs): Bush 63.6%, Kerry 35.8%
KENTUCKY (8 EVs): Bush 60.8%, Kerry 39.2%
LOUISIANA (9 EVs): Bush 55.1%, Kerry 43.8%
MAINE (3 EVs): Kerry 54.2%, Bush 45.8%
MAINE 2nd Congressional District (1 EV): Bush over Kerry
MARYLAND (10 EVs): Kerry 56.8%, Bush 43.2%
MASSACHUSETTS (12 EVs): Kerry 56.8%, Bush 40.9%
MICHIGAN (17 EVs): Kerry 51.2%, Bush 48.1%
MINNESOTA (10 EVs): Kerry 50.9%, Bush 48.0%
MISSISSIPPI (6 EVs): Bush 54.3%, Kerry 44.7%
MISSOURI (11 EVs): Bush 52.5%, Kerry 47.5%
MONTANA (3 EVs): Bush 60.6%, Kerry 38.3%
NEBRASKA (5 EVs): Bush 65.6%, Kerry 34.4%
NEVADA (5 EVs): Bush 51.9%, Kerry 48.1%
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 EVs): Kerry 49.8%, Bush 48.6%
NEW JERSEY (15 EVs): Kerry 52.4%, Bush 46.7%
NEW MEXICO (5 EVs): Bush 50.3%, Kerry 48.8%
NEW YORK (31 EVs): Kerry 58.9%, Bush 40.7%
NORTH CAROLINA (15 EVs): Bush 54.3%, Kerry 45.7%
NORTH DAKOTA (3 EVs): Bush 60.4%, Kerry 38.5%
OHIO (20 EVs): Bush 51.1%, Kerry 48.9%
OKLAHOMA (7 EVs): Bush 65.3%, Kerry 34.7%
OREGON (7 EVs): Kerry 52.5%, Bush 47.5%
PENNSYLVANIA (21 EVs): Kerry 50.7%, Bush 49.3%
RHODE ISLAND (4 EVs): Kerry 56.8%, Bush 43.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA (8 EVs): Bush 59.4%, Kerry 40.6%
SOUTH DAKOTA (3 EVs): Bush 60.4%, Kerry 39.6%
TENNESSEE (11 EVs): Bush 59.2%, Kerry 40.8%
TEXAS (34 EVs): Bush 61.5%, Kerry 38.5%
UTAH (5 EVs): Bush 73.3%, Kerry 25.1%
VERMONT (3 EVs): Kerry 55.2%, Bush 41.7%
VIRGINIA (13 EVs): Bush 52.0%, Kerry 48%
WASHINGTON (11 EVs): Kerry 52.3%, Bush 46.6%
WEST VIRGINIA (5 EVs): Bush 54.3%, Kerry 45.7%
WISCONSIN (10 EVs): Bush 50.1%, Kerry 49.4% (could be stolen by Kerry)
WYOMING (3 EVs): Bush 67.7%, Kerry 30.2%
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
The best-case scenario of the President winning 301 Electoral Votes would leave him (1) commandingly ahead, which, as we saw in Florida four years ago, is akin to "possession being nine-tenths of the law". Kerry would then be left with the daunting task of suing to overturn Florida plus at least one other battleground Bush state, and frankly, if Gore couldn't overcome a 1,700-vote initial margin, it's difficult at best to see how Lurch could wade upstream against a shortfall of nearly a hundred thousand votes. And if he found a pliant judge willing to do his bidding (all too likely in Florida, as you'll recall), remember Bush's backstop: the GOP-controlled Florida legislature, which will be ready to send the state's Bush Electors if it proves necessary.
The middle-case scenario of Kerry defrauding away Hawaii, Iowa, and Wisconsin to get to 258 EVs simplifies Kerry's task, but doesn't make it appreciably easier. He'd still be down about 25,000 votes in Florida and 60,000 in Ohio. And Ohio has a Republican legislature as well.
The difference between the two scenarios is in the latter case post-election litigation is a certainty. In the former it is merely likely, and there exists the outside chance of Kerry bowing gracefully, or somebody prevailing upon him to do so.
Either way, the reality is that Bush will be re-elected.
And now, here are my final Senate picks (incumbents in bold):
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
ALASKA: Knowles (D) 51.1%, Murkowski (R) 48.9% (Dem pickup)
ARKANSAS: Lincoln (D) 60.0%, Holt (R) 40.0%
CALIFORNIA: Boxer (D) 59.6%, Jones (R) 40.4%
COLORADO: Salazar (D) 52.1%, Coors (R) 47.9% (Dem pickup)
CONNECTICUT: Dodd (D) 71.0%, Orchulli (R) 29.%
FLORIDA: Martinez (R) 50.01%, Castor (D) 49.99% (GOP pickup, assuming the courts rule in their favor...)
GEORGIA: Isakson (R) 57.9%, Majette (D) 42.1% (GOP pickup)
ILLINOIS: Obama (D) 71.9%, Keyes (R) 28.1% (Dem pickup)
INDIANA: Bayh (D) 66.0%, Scott (R) 34.0%
IOWA: Grassley (R) 72.8%, Small (D) 27.2%
KENTUCKY: Bunning (R) 54.8%, Mongiardo (D) 45.2%
LOUISIANA: Vitter (R) 56.6%, [Dems] 43.4% (Vitter avoids December run-off - GOP pickup)
MISSOURI: Bond (R) 60.5%, Farmer (D) 39.5%
NEVADA: Reid (D) 61.8%, Ziser (R) 38.2%
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gregg (R) 74.7%, Haddock (D) 25.3%
NORTH CAROLINA: Burr (R) 51.1%, Bowles (D) 48.9% (GOP pickup)
OHIO: Voinovich (R) 65.5%, Fingerhut (D) 34.5%
OKLAHOMA: Coburn (R) 55.2%, Carson (D) 44.8%
PENNSYLVANIA: Specter (R) 60.6%, Hoeffel (D) 39.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA: DeMint (R) 55.9%, Tenenbaum (D) 44.1% (GOP pickup)
SOUTH DAKOTA: Thune (R) 51.1%, Daschle (D) 48.9% (GOP pickup)
UTAH: Bennett (R) 73.7%, Van Dam (D) 26.3%
WASHINGTON: Murray (D) 56.5%, Nethercutt (R) 43.5%
WISCONSIN: Feingold (D) 56.8%, Michels (R) 43.2%
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
The GOP picks up a net of three seats, giving them an effective 54-46 majority in the next Senate.
I don't have specific House picks, but a GOP majority approaching the 1995 Newt-era high water mark of 236 seats - particularly with an additional four or five from Texas alone - doesn't seem an unreasonable expectation.
And if there's anything America needs, it's more Republicans in every branch of government.
With George W. Bush presiding over it all, for four more years.
Uh-uh-uh. Keep reading, whilst you curse me for such obnoxious teasing. And whatever you do, don't look at the righthand side of the screen until I tell you....
Didn't blog much yesterday other than my daily campaign update. I figure I had good reason, since (1) I'm sick of "YOU DECIDE 2004!!!", (2) more Kerry updates aren't going to change any minds at this late date, no matter how entertaining they are, and (3) I turned forty yesterday and mourned my official geezerhood by devouring a 16-oz teriyaki New York steak. I figured it was only fair since from now on I'll be limited to rabbit food and rice cakes and glop that is "good for my colon."
If you want to catch up on the flailing of Kerry & Co. over the weekend, click here. I just uploaded a metric ton of links.
Now then, let's get the other housekeeping out of the way.
Poll Composite: Bush 47.9%, Kerry 46.5% (Bush +1.4 – down 0.2%)
So, on the last day of the (pre-)campaign, the President falls to his lowest point since before the GOP convention. The momentum is all with Kerry, Bush is finished, and Dems can begin celebrating with some festive beheadings of Republican captives, right?
Not so fast.
Remember the Fox tracking poll I discussed yesterday? Today's had Bush down two (48-46) today, and had the same wacked internals showing Kerry up by two amongst male voters. That, gentles, is crap. And after some more number-crunching today, I have additional evidence of its fecality.
In preparation for posting my final state-by-state calls, I went through the RCP archives to get the actual state horserace numbers. After I finished with that, I got an idea. I added up the state numbers for Bush and Kerry and weighted them according to proportion of the total Electoral College vote. My end result? Bush 51.2%, Kerry 48.4%.
As an added bonus, the final Harris poll came out this afternoon, showing the President leading 49-45. And when you adjust the Fox number for a more realistic male voting demographic, you get that very same score. Plug that into my polling composite and you get Bush 50.5%, Kerry 48.1%, a result only a little short of the state-by-state aggregate.
Suffice it to say, George W. Bush is leading by about two to three points nationally. (See the "high," "medium," and "low" projections at upper right.)
Now recall my discussion of figuring Democrat vote fraud into this equation. Projecting today's composite horserace score gives Dubya 50.1% of the popular vote, which reduces the vote fraud jeopardy (by my admittedly artibrary criteria) to states where he leads by a point or less.
Consequently, I believe we can dispense with the "low" projections that give Kerry a one-point PV win and the Electoral College 290-248.
So, yes, I'm predicting that George W. Bush will be re-elected to a second term as President of the United States.
I'll give you all a few moments to heave several huge sighs of relief.
And now, the roll call of the states....
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
ALABAMA (9 EVs): Bush 59.4%, Kerry 40.6%
ALASKA (3 EVs): Bush 62.0%, Kerry 32.6%
ARKANSAS (6 EVs): Bush 53.7%, Kerry 46.3%
ARIZONA (10 EVs): Bush 55.2%, Kerry 44.8%
CALIFORNIA (55 EVs): Kerry 54.3%, Bush 45.7%
COLORADO (9 EVs): Bush 53.0%, Kerry 46.7%
CONNECTICUT (7 EVs): Kerry 53.6%, Bush 43.3%
DELAWARE (3 EVs): Kerry 52.9%, Bush 44.7%
D.C. (3 EVs): Kerry 100.0%, Bush 0.0% (No, I'm not joking...)
FLORIDA (27 EVs): Bush 50.5%, Kerry 49.1%
GEORGIA (15 EVs): Bush 56.7%, Kerry 43.3%
HAWAII (4 EVs): Bush 50.5%, Kerry 49.5% (could be stolen by Kerry)
IDAHO (4 EVs): Bush 64.1%, Kerry 32.6%
ILLINOIS (21 EVs): Kerry 56.8%, Bush 43.2%
INDIANA (11 EVs): Bush 59.1%, Kerry 40.9%
IOWA (7 EVs): Bush 50.2%, Kerry 49.2% (could be stolen by Kerry)
KANSAS (6 EVs): Bush 63.6%, Kerry 35.8%
KENTUCKY (8 EVs): Bush 60.8%, Kerry 39.2%
LOUISIANA (9 EVs): Bush 55.1%, Kerry 43.8%
MAINE (3 EVs): Kerry 54.2%, Bush 45.8%
MAINE 2nd Congressional District (1 EV): Bush over Kerry
MARYLAND (10 EVs): Kerry 56.8%, Bush 43.2%
MASSACHUSETTS (12 EVs): Kerry 56.8%, Bush 40.9%
MICHIGAN (17 EVs): Kerry 51.2%, Bush 48.1%
MINNESOTA (10 EVs): Kerry 50.9%, Bush 48.0%
MISSISSIPPI (6 EVs): Bush 54.3%, Kerry 44.7%
MISSOURI (11 EVs): Bush 52.5%, Kerry 47.5%
MONTANA (3 EVs): Bush 60.6%, Kerry 38.3%
NEBRASKA (5 EVs): Bush 65.6%, Kerry 34.4%
NEVADA (5 EVs): Bush 51.9%, Kerry 48.1%
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 EVs): Kerry 49.8%, Bush 48.6%
NEW JERSEY (15 EVs): Kerry 52.4%, Bush 46.7%
NEW MEXICO (5 EVs): Bush 50.3%, Kerry 48.8%
NEW YORK (31 EVs): Kerry 58.9%, Bush 40.7%
NORTH CAROLINA (15 EVs): Bush 54.3%, Kerry 45.7%
NORTH DAKOTA (3 EVs): Bush 60.4%, Kerry 38.5%
OHIO (20 EVs): Bush 51.1%, Kerry 48.9%
OKLAHOMA (7 EVs): Bush 65.3%, Kerry 34.7%
OREGON (7 EVs): Kerry 52.5%, Bush 47.5%
PENNSYLVANIA (21 EVs): Kerry 50.7%, Bush 49.3%
RHODE ISLAND (4 EVs): Kerry 56.8%, Bush 43.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA (8 EVs): Bush 59.4%, Kerry 40.6%
SOUTH DAKOTA (3 EVs): Bush 60.4%, Kerry 39.6%
TENNESSEE (11 EVs): Bush 59.2%, Kerry 40.8%
TEXAS (34 EVs): Bush 61.5%, Kerry 38.5%
UTAH (5 EVs): Bush 73.3%, Kerry 25.1%
VERMONT (3 EVs): Kerry 55.2%, Bush 41.7%
VIRGINIA (13 EVs): Bush 52.0%, Kerry 48%
WASHINGTON (11 EVs): Kerry 52.3%, Bush 46.6%
WEST VIRGINIA (5 EVs): Bush 54.3%, Kerry 45.7%
WISCONSIN (10 EVs): Bush 50.1%, Kerry 49.4% (could be stolen by Kerry)
WYOMING (3 EVs): Bush 67.7%, Kerry 30.2%
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
The best-case scenario of the President winning 301 Electoral Votes would leave him (1) commandingly ahead, which, as we saw in Florida four years ago, is akin to "possession being nine-tenths of the law". Kerry would then be left with the daunting task of suing to overturn Florida plus at least one other battleground Bush state, and frankly, if Gore couldn't overcome a 1,700-vote initial margin, it's difficult at best to see how Lurch could wade upstream against a shortfall of nearly a hundred thousand votes. And if he found a pliant judge willing to do his bidding (all too likely in Florida, as you'll recall), remember Bush's backstop: the GOP-controlled Florida legislature, which will be ready to send the state's Bush Electors if it proves necessary.
The middle-case scenario of Kerry defrauding away Hawaii, Iowa, and Wisconsin to get to 258 EVs simplifies Kerry's task, but doesn't make it appreciably easier. He'd still be down about 25,000 votes in Florida and 60,000 in Ohio. And Ohio has a Republican legislature as well.
The difference between the two scenarios is in the latter case post-election litigation is a certainty. In the former it is merely likely, and there exists the outside chance of Kerry bowing gracefully, or somebody prevailing upon him to do so.
Either way, the reality is that Bush will be re-elected.
And now, here are my final Senate picks (incumbents in bold):
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
ALASKA: Knowles (D) 51.1%, Murkowski (R) 48.9% (Dem pickup)
ARKANSAS: Lincoln (D) 60.0%, Holt (R) 40.0%
CALIFORNIA: Boxer (D) 59.6%, Jones (R) 40.4%
COLORADO: Salazar (D) 52.1%, Coors (R) 47.9% (Dem pickup)
CONNECTICUT: Dodd (D) 71.0%, Orchulli (R) 29.%
FLORIDA: Martinez (R) 50.01%, Castor (D) 49.99% (GOP pickup, assuming the courts rule in their favor...)
GEORGIA: Isakson (R) 57.9%, Majette (D) 42.1% (GOP pickup)
ILLINOIS: Obama (D) 71.9%, Keyes (R) 28.1% (Dem pickup)
INDIANA: Bayh (D) 66.0%, Scott (R) 34.0%
IOWA: Grassley (R) 72.8%, Small (D) 27.2%
KENTUCKY: Bunning (R) 54.8%, Mongiardo (D) 45.2%
LOUISIANA: Vitter (R) 56.6%, [Dems] 43.4% (Vitter avoids December run-off - GOP pickup)
MISSOURI: Bond (R) 60.5%, Farmer (D) 39.5%
NEVADA: Reid (D) 61.8%, Ziser (R) 38.2%
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gregg (R) 74.7%, Haddock (D) 25.3%
NORTH CAROLINA: Burr (R) 51.1%, Bowles (D) 48.9% (GOP pickup)
OHIO: Voinovich (R) 65.5%, Fingerhut (D) 34.5%
OKLAHOMA: Coburn (R) 55.2%, Carson (D) 44.8%
PENNSYLVANIA: Specter (R) 60.6%, Hoeffel (D) 39.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA: DeMint (R) 55.9%, Tenenbaum (D) 44.1% (GOP pickup)
SOUTH DAKOTA: Thune (R) 51.1%, Daschle (D) 48.9% (GOP pickup)
UTAH: Bennett (R) 73.7%, Van Dam (D) 26.3%
WASHINGTON: Murray (D) 56.5%, Nethercutt (R) 43.5%
WISCONSIN: Feingold (D) 56.8%, Michels (R) 43.2%
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
The GOP picks up a net of three seats, giving them an effective 54-46 majority in the next Senate.
I don't have specific House picks, but a GOP majority approaching the 1995 Newt-era high water mark of 236 seats - particularly with an additional four or five from Texas alone - doesn't seem an unreasonable expectation.
And if there's anything America needs, it's more Republicans in every branch of government.
With George W. Bush presiding over it all, for four more years.
posted by JASmius at 6:49 PM
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