How close to the pin was I?
Here's how I did with my election picks (my call / actual margin):
ALABAMA: Bush +18.8 / Bush +25.7
ALASKA: Bush +29.4 / Bush +26.8
ARKANSAS: Bush +7.4 / Bush +9.8
ARIZONA: Bush +10.4 / Bush +10.4
CALIFORNIA: Kerry +8.6 / Kerry +10.3
COLORADO: Bush +6.3 / Bush +5.6
CONNECTICUT: Kerry +10.3 / Kerry +10.3
DELAWARE: Kerry +8.2 / Kerry +7.5
D.C.: Kerry +100.0 / Kerry +80.2 (and you thought I was joking...)
FLORIDA: Bush +1.4 / Bush +5.0
GEORGIA: Bush +13.4 / Bush +16.7
HAWAII: Bush +1.0 / Kerry +8.7 (Now they'll NEVER let me vacation there...)
IDAHO: Bush +31.5 / Bush +38.1
ILLINOIS: Kerry +13.6 / Kerry +10.0
INDIANA: Bush +18.2 / Bush +20.9
IOWA: Bush +1.0 / Bush +0.9 (Bullseye!)
KANSAS: Bush +27.8 / Bush +25.7
KENTUCKY: Bush +21.6 / Bush +19.8
LOUISIANA: Bush +12.3 / Bush +14.6
MAINE: Kerry +8.4 / Kerry +8.1
MARYLAND: Kerry +13.6 / Kerry +12.4
MASSACHUSETTS: Kerry +15.9 / Kerry +25.1
MICHIGAN: Kerry +3.1 / Kerry +3.4
MINNESOTA: Kerry +2.9 / Kerry +3.5
MISSISSIPPI: Bush +9.6 / Bush +20.0
MISSOURI: Bush +5.0 / Bush +7.3
MONTANA: Bush +22.3 / Bush +20.5
NEBRASKA: Bush +31.2 / Bush +34.5
NEVADA: Bush +3.8 / Bush +2.6
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Kerry +1.2 / Kerry +1.3
NEW JERSEY: Kerry +5.7 / Kerry +6.2
NEW MEXICO: Bush +1.5 / Bush +1.1
NEW YORK: Kerry +18.2 / Kerry +17.3
NORTH CAROLINA: Bush +8.6 / Bush +12.6
NORTH DAKOTA: Bush +21.9 / Bush +27.4
OHIO: Bush +2.2 / Bush +2.5
OKLAHOMA: Bush +30.6 / Bush +31.2
OREGON: Kerry +5.0 / Kerry +3.9
PENNSYLVANIA: Kerry +1.4 / Kerry +2.2
RHODE ISLAND: Kerry +13.6 / Kerry +20.6
SOUTH CAROLINA: Bush +18.8 / Bush +17.2
SOUTH DAKOTA: Bush +20.8 / Bush +21.5
TENNESSEE: Bush +18.4 / Bush +14.3
TEXAS: Bush +23.0 / Bush +22.9
UTAH: Bush +48.2 / Bush +44.7
VERMONT: Kerry +13.5 / Kerry +20.2
VIRGINIA: Bush +4.0 / Bush +8.7
WASHINGTON: Kerry +5.7 / Kerry +7.5
WEST VIRGINIA: Bush +8.6 / Bush +12.9
WISCONSIN: Bush +0.7 / Kerry +0.4 (The one state Kerry managed to steal)
WYOMING: Bush +37.5 / Bush +39.9
POPULAR VOTE: Bush +2.8 / Bush +3.3
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Bush +64 / Bush +34
The moral of the story? Screw compositing the national horserace polls. Zogby demolished his own credibility this cycle with his pro-Kerry cheerleading, not to mention his leaping upon those bogus exit polling numbers on Tuesday afternoon to predict a "Kerry blowout." Fox showed Kerry pulling away over last weekend. Even Harris, after hitting the eventual bullseye on Monday, felt compelled for some reason to do another survey for Election Day release showing a Kerry surge.
They're all tainted. So, from now on, I'm aggregating state-by-state polling - the bottoms-up approach. Far better to have an overabundance of polling data than just a handful of dubious reliability.
So, within half a point on the popular vote, and 48 for 50 in the EC. Not bad for a hack hobbyist with a rudimentary grasp of Microsoft Excel.
As for my Senate picks, it was pretty much the same story (my call / actual margin):
ALABAMA: (No polling available) / Shelby +35.2
ALASKA: Knowles +2.2 / Murkowski +4.3
ARIZONA: (No polling available) / McCain +55.7
ARKANSAS: Lincoln +20.0 / Lincoln +11.6
CALIFORNIA: Boxer +19.2 / Boxer +20.2
COLORADO: Salazar +4.2 / Salazar +3.9 (Dem pickup)
CONNECTICUT: Dodd +42.0 / Dodd +33.7
FLORIDA: Martinez +0.01 / Martinez +1.1 (GOP pickup)
GEORGIA: Isakson +15.8 / Isakson +18.0 (GOP pickup)
HAWAII: (No polling available) / Inouye +54.5
IDAHO: (No polling available) / Crapo +99.0
ILLINOIS: Obama +43.8 / Obama +42.7 (Dem pickup)
INDIANA: Bayh +32.0% / Bayh +24.3
IOWA: Grassley +45.6 / Grassley +42.5
KANSAS: Brownback +38.8 / Brownback +41.9
KENTUCKY: Bunning +9.5 / Bunning +1.4
LOUISIANA: Vitter +6.6 (above 50% runoff floor) / Vitter +1.1 (GOP pickup)
MARYLAND: (No polling available) / Mikulski +30.8
MISSOURI: Bond +21.0 / Bond +13.4
NEVADA: Reid +23.6 / Reid +25.9
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gregg +49.4 / Gregg +32.6
NEW YORK: (No polling available) / Schumer +46.0
NORTH CAROLINA: Burr +2.2 / Burr +4.6 (GOP pickup)
NORTH DAKOTA: (No polling available) / Dorgan +36.6
OHIO: Voinovich +31.0 / Voinovich +27.8
OKLAHOMA: Coburn +10.4 / Coburn +11.6
OREGON: Wyden +30.4 / Wyden +31.8
PENNSYLVANIA: Specter +21.2 / Specter +10.8
SOUTH CAROLINA: DeMint +11.8 / DeMint +9.7 (GOP pickup)
SOUTH DAKOTA: Thune +2.2 / Thune +1.2 (GOP pickup)
UTAH: Bennett +47.4 / Bennett +39.6
VERMONT: (No polling available) / Leahy +45.8
WASHINGTON: Murray +13.0 / Murray +12.7
WISCONSIN: Feingold +13.6 / Feingold +11.3
GOP +3 / GOP +4
Only one I missed was the Murkowski/Knowles race, and that apparently because of absence of fresh polling data. And I'll take flubs that keep Republicans in office any day of the week.
Why do I do this, aside from a residual geekiness I long since abandoned any hope of shedding? Because it's a very effective anti-spin deflector shield. As I said throughout this campaign, the numbers (when comprehensively assembled and analyzed) do not lie. It's how I knew Kerry got little or no convention bounce, it's how I knew the SwiftVets had wiped it out, it's how I knew that the President didn't get nearly the convention bounce some of the polls were attributing to him, it's why I sounded the alarm after Debate I, it's why I finally gave up on the national surveys, and it's why the worked exit polling had no effect upon my Election Day morale.
It's called "thinking for oneself."
Or Bill O'Reilly without the phone sex.
But what does it all mean? And why hasn't anybody else been asking this question?
What, they have?
Well, they're all wrong.
To see why, keep scrolling....
ALABAMA: Bush +18.8 / Bush +25.7
ALASKA: Bush +29.4 / Bush +26.8
ARKANSAS: Bush +7.4 / Bush +9.8
ARIZONA: Bush +10.4 / Bush +10.4
CALIFORNIA: Kerry +8.6 / Kerry +10.3
COLORADO: Bush +6.3 / Bush +5.6
CONNECTICUT: Kerry +10.3 / Kerry +10.3
DELAWARE: Kerry +8.2 / Kerry +7.5
D.C.: Kerry +100.0 / Kerry +80.2 (and you thought I was joking...)
FLORIDA: Bush +1.4 / Bush +5.0
GEORGIA: Bush +13.4 / Bush +16.7
HAWAII: Bush +1.0 / Kerry +8.7 (Now they'll NEVER let me vacation there...)
IDAHO: Bush +31.5 / Bush +38.1
ILLINOIS: Kerry +13.6 / Kerry +10.0
INDIANA: Bush +18.2 / Bush +20.9
IOWA: Bush +1.0 / Bush +0.9 (Bullseye!)
KANSAS: Bush +27.8 / Bush +25.7
KENTUCKY: Bush +21.6 / Bush +19.8
LOUISIANA: Bush +12.3 / Bush +14.6
MAINE: Kerry +8.4 / Kerry +8.1
MARYLAND: Kerry +13.6 / Kerry +12.4
MASSACHUSETTS: Kerry +15.9 / Kerry +25.1
MICHIGAN: Kerry +3.1 / Kerry +3.4
MINNESOTA: Kerry +2.9 / Kerry +3.5
MISSISSIPPI: Bush +9.6 / Bush +20.0
MISSOURI: Bush +5.0 / Bush +7.3
MONTANA: Bush +22.3 / Bush +20.5
NEBRASKA: Bush +31.2 / Bush +34.5
NEVADA: Bush +3.8 / Bush +2.6
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Kerry +1.2 / Kerry +1.3
NEW JERSEY: Kerry +5.7 / Kerry +6.2
NEW MEXICO: Bush +1.5 / Bush +1.1
NEW YORK: Kerry +18.2 / Kerry +17.3
NORTH CAROLINA: Bush +8.6 / Bush +12.6
NORTH DAKOTA: Bush +21.9 / Bush +27.4
OHIO: Bush +2.2 / Bush +2.5
OKLAHOMA: Bush +30.6 / Bush +31.2
OREGON: Kerry +5.0 / Kerry +3.9
PENNSYLVANIA: Kerry +1.4 / Kerry +2.2
RHODE ISLAND: Kerry +13.6 / Kerry +20.6
SOUTH CAROLINA: Bush +18.8 / Bush +17.2
SOUTH DAKOTA: Bush +20.8 / Bush +21.5
TENNESSEE: Bush +18.4 / Bush +14.3
TEXAS: Bush +23.0 / Bush +22.9
UTAH: Bush +48.2 / Bush +44.7
VERMONT: Kerry +13.5 / Kerry +20.2
VIRGINIA: Bush +4.0 / Bush +8.7
WASHINGTON: Kerry +5.7 / Kerry +7.5
WEST VIRGINIA: Bush +8.6 / Bush +12.9
WISCONSIN: Bush +0.7 / Kerry +0.4 (The one state Kerry managed to steal)
WYOMING: Bush +37.5 / Bush +39.9
POPULAR VOTE: Bush +2.8 / Bush +3.3
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Bush +64 / Bush +34
The moral of the story? Screw compositing the national horserace polls. Zogby demolished his own credibility this cycle with his pro-Kerry cheerleading, not to mention his leaping upon those bogus exit polling numbers on Tuesday afternoon to predict a "Kerry blowout." Fox showed Kerry pulling away over last weekend. Even Harris, after hitting the eventual bullseye on Monday, felt compelled for some reason to do another survey for Election Day release showing a Kerry surge.
They're all tainted. So, from now on, I'm aggregating state-by-state polling - the bottoms-up approach. Far better to have an overabundance of polling data than just a handful of dubious reliability.
So, within half a point on the popular vote, and 48 for 50 in the EC. Not bad for a hack hobbyist with a rudimentary grasp of Microsoft Excel.
As for my Senate picks, it was pretty much the same story (my call / actual margin):
ALABAMA: (No polling available) / Shelby +35.2
ALASKA: Knowles +2.2 / Murkowski +4.3
ARIZONA: (No polling available) / McCain +55.7
ARKANSAS: Lincoln +20.0 / Lincoln +11.6
CALIFORNIA: Boxer +19.2 / Boxer +20.2
COLORADO: Salazar +4.2 / Salazar +3.9 (Dem pickup)
CONNECTICUT: Dodd +42.0 / Dodd +33.7
FLORIDA: Martinez +0.01 / Martinez +1.1 (GOP pickup)
GEORGIA: Isakson +15.8 / Isakson +18.0 (GOP pickup)
HAWAII: (No polling available) / Inouye +54.5
IDAHO: (No polling available) / Crapo +99.0
ILLINOIS: Obama +43.8 / Obama +42.7 (Dem pickup)
INDIANA: Bayh +32.0% / Bayh +24.3
IOWA: Grassley +45.6 / Grassley +42.5
KANSAS: Brownback +38.8 / Brownback +41.9
KENTUCKY: Bunning +9.5 / Bunning +1.4
LOUISIANA: Vitter +6.6 (above 50% runoff floor) / Vitter +1.1 (GOP pickup)
MARYLAND: (No polling available) / Mikulski +30.8
MISSOURI: Bond +21.0 / Bond +13.4
NEVADA: Reid +23.6 / Reid +25.9
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gregg +49.4 / Gregg +32.6
NEW YORK: (No polling available) / Schumer +46.0
NORTH CAROLINA: Burr +2.2 / Burr +4.6 (GOP pickup)
NORTH DAKOTA: (No polling available) / Dorgan +36.6
OHIO: Voinovich +31.0 / Voinovich +27.8
OKLAHOMA: Coburn +10.4 / Coburn +11.6
OREGON: Wyden +30.4 / Wyden +31.8
PENNSYLVANIA: Specter +21.2 / Specter +10.8
SOUTH CAROLINA: DeMint +11.8 / DeMint +9.7 (GOP pickup)
SOUTH DAKOTA: Thune +2.2 / Thune +1.2 (GOP pickup)
UTAH: Bennett +47.4 / Bennett +39.6
VERMONT: (No polling available) / Leahy +45.8
WASHINGTON: Murray +13.0 / Murray +12.7
WISCONSIN: Feingold +13.6 / Feingold +11.3
GOP +3 / GOP +4
Only one I missed was the Murkowski/Knowles race, and that apparently because of absence of fresh polling data. And I'll take flubs that keep Republicans in office any day of the week.
Why do I do this, aside from a residual geekiness I long since abandoned any hope of shedding? Because it's a very effective anti-spin deflector shield. As I said throughout this campaign, the numbers (when comprehensively assembled and analyzed) do not lie. It's how I knew Kerry got little or no convention bounce, it's how I knew the SwiftVets had wiped it out, it's how I knew that the President didn't get nearly the convention bounce some of the polls were attributing to him, it's why I sounded the alarm after Debate I, it's why I finally gave up on the national surveys, and it's why the worked exit polling had no effect upon my Election Day morale.
It's called "thinking for oneself."
Or Bill O'Reilly without the phone sex.
But what does it all mean? And why hasn't anybody else been asking this question?
What, they have?
Well, they're all wrong.
To see why, keep scrolling....
posted by JASmius at 8:40 AM
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