"Into Thy Hands...."
Went and voted at about 7:30AM this morning. I've always actually gone to the polling place to vote, with the exception of my college years where I didn't consider myself to be resident of Pullman, Washington, and voted absentee instead. It just doesn't feel like I've really voted unless I've actually gone out on Election Day to do it. Voting by mail feels like I'm sending a magazine subscription or something. Not to mention leaving my ballot at the mercy of the U.S. Postal Service, which has an overabundance of bridge abuttments behind/under which to strategically lose such things.
Anyway, this little, out-of-the-way rural fire station is usually deserted at this hour. This morning it was packed, although there weren't lines wrapping around the building or anything. Given the driving rainstorm, I came prepared with my umbrella, which could also double as a blunt weapon if needed.
There appeared (I didn't ask) to be two poll watchers there, presumably one from each party. Didn't notice any tension in the air, though the man in front of me claimed that he'd been sent to the wrong precinct and was given a provisional ballot. Don't know if that means anything, but in this election you never know.
Just turned off Sean Hannity after his third "GET YOUR ASS OUT THERE AND VOTE THE FATE OF THE WORLD DEPENDS UPON IT!!!" monologue in forty-five minutes. I understand what he's trying to do, and more power to him, but having already voted myself, it was just getting on my nerves.
I'm not paying much heed to early exit polling. Case in point is the report purporting to show Kerry up a point in Ohio and Florida. A little while later came the other shoe: that exit polling sample was 60% women/40% men. If the Boston Balker can't do any better with that skewed a sample, it just might be a short night tonight.
Heard about fraud and sabotage, power being cut to a GOP HQ in Allegheny, Pennsylvania, tires of thirty GOP GOTV vehicles slashed in Colorado, two thousand "pre-votes" on Philadelphia voting machines, etc. Some are calling this desperation; I maintain that this is simply who and what the Democrats have become. Further proof can be found in the preparations some on the far Left are making for mass riots if the election is "stolen" (i.e. Bush wins). Mark this well: the President's re-election, even in a landslide, is not going to make these people to go away. They're only going to get angrier, dirtier, more lawless, and more violent. The domestic terrorism threat we've been thinking of as being mounted from abroad (i.e. al Qaeda) may end up being entirely home-grown in the fever swamps of liberal insanity.
Heard that John Thune is up four in South Dakota. Yeah, it's early and doesn't mean much, but given Tom Daschle's panic attack yesterday, it seems to be a harbinger of what the perhaps-soon-to-be-former Senate Minority Leader was afraid of.
More to come, the direction of which will be judgable by the profanity level....
After 3 PM PST: Been surfing around, reading this and that. Kerryians freaking out in Oregon; talk of Bush winning Florida and Ohio "in a rout" and Pennsylvania being "tied"; heady stuff, at least for mid-afternoon on the West Coast.
Still meaningless, of course. But it's difficult not to feel that something very good is building out there.
But not if the networks have anything to say about it.
After 4 PM PST: According to RedState, "Sources Say 'It is over. Bush won. Ohio and Florida are secure.'" We shall see.
Georgia, Indiana, and Kentucky have been called for Bush. Kerry conquers Vermont. No surprises yet.
Johnny Isakson succeeds Zel Miller in Georgia, again, as expected.
4:30 PM PST: Bush wins West Virginia. Virginia and South Carolina "too close to call"? Huh?
Just heard early Virginia returns: 57-43 Bush. And RCP reports Bush up 55-45 in South Carolina. Nyah-nyah-nyah.
Jim Bunning is behind in Kentucky. That seat was supposed to be safe.
Whoops, now it's narrowing....
5 PM PST: Very first returns from Ohio: 52-48 Bush. Very first returns from Florida: 56-43 Bush.
As my online friend John Ross likes to say, "Hubba-hubba."
Jim DeMint has won in South Carolina. And Richard Burr is up eighteen in North Carolina.
Good Gawd: with 2% of precincts reporting, New Jersey is tied.
New Hampshire at the same point is 59-41 Kerry.
Bush wins Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, leading 2-1 in North Carolina. Kerry collects Connecticut, Maine (but not the 2nd Congressional district!), Massachusetts, Delaware, DC, Maryland, Illinois. (yawn)
5:30 PM PST: Tom Coburn is the new Senator from Oklahoma.
Bush's lead is holding in Florida at 55-44.
Jim Bunning has closed to within two points in Kentucky. Now he's pulled into a tie.
Bush wins Virginia, North Carolina, Texas.
Early call on Ohio: Too close to call.
6 PM PST: Bush rolls up the plains states. Ooooh, now Bush has moved ahead in Ohio 53-47 with 5% reporting, perhaps on the strength of an increase to 15% of the black vote.
Hmmm. Bush's Florida lead down to seven. Probably the lib counties reporting in. They'll be offset by the heavily GOP panhandle counties.
New York must have been called for Kerry by now. Ah, there 'tis. Also Rhode Island.
Bunning is now ahead slightly in Kentucky with 89% reporting.
FWIW, so far Bush is winning the overall popular vote by 9%.
First results from Michigan and Wisconsin: Bush leads.
In Illinois, Barack Obama is leading Alan Keyes 125% to -25%. Or something like that.
Bush wins Louisiana. Will Congressman Vitter clear the 50% hurdle to avoid a December runoff?
Time to get some dinner. Be back in a few.
7PM PST: Bush sweeps the South plus Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Missouri. His Ohio lead is holding. And the Bushies think they're going to pull out New Hampshire. And now he's taken the lead there.
Just heard a second-hand warning from an "unnamed GOP source" that Florida is about to drastically tighten. Again, we'll see. With 80% reporting, Bush is still leading by six. If this happens, it almost has to be fraud-driven. But don't forget the ~150,000-vote Republican advantage in the absentees.
83% reporting, and it's down to four. Team Bush is expecting to win by three.
88% of Florida reporting, and Bush lead is five.
Jim Bunning survives.
Bush leading in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado. Kerry leading in Iowa and Minnesota.
Kerry finally captures New Jersey, 52-47. Almost exactly the margin I predicted.
Kerry wins Pennsylvania. Lotsa fraud there.
8 PM PST: 94% reporting in Florida, Bush still leads by five. Reportedly the networks are going to wait until 2008 to declare the state for Hillary Clinton.
Why hasn't Kerry declared victory yet? Is he rummaging around trying to find his 8mm video camera so he can re-enact Election night the "right" way?
Richard Burr is Opie Edwards' successor in North Carolina.
8:30 PM PST: The networks call Florida for Bush. That by itself is the biggest upset of the night. The networks making the call, I mean.
65% reporting in Ohio, and Bush is still up by four.
Kerry has taken the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Also leading in Nevada. But Bush still has New Mexico.
The Electoral map is looking more and more like an instant replay of 2000, which means that the President's litigation cushion is evaporating.
Bush pockets Idaho.
9 PM PST: The answer to my earlier question is yes, David Vitter did clear 50% and is the next Senator from Louisiana.
Looks like California and Washington are trending to Lurch, as expected.
Ruh-row. Ohio is tightening to two points with 74% reporting. But Wisconsin is tightening again. Ditto Iowa.
76% reporting in Ohio now, and Bush is back up by three.
It appears that the Kerryians' panic about Oregon was unfounded.
From the KerrySpot:
New Mexico: With 70% of the precincts reporting, Bush leads, 51-48.
Wisconsin: With 52% of the precincts reporting, Kerry leads, 50-49.
Minnesota: With 45% of the precincts reporting, Kerry leads, 53-46.
Iowa: With 68% of the precincts reporting, Kerry leads, 51-49.
Those seventeen additional EVs would look awfully good right about now.
John Thune is out in front of Tom Daschle by 3,700 votes in South Dakota, which is a whole lot in that state. Also, Mel Martinez is up 61,000 votes in Florida.
Well I'll be damned - Ohio has been called for Bush! Can the fat lady be about to sing?
Forget New Hampshire, BTW. Ditto Maine's 2nd Congressional district.
But all Bush needs to clear 270 is New Mexico.
Wisconsin: 65% reporting, Bush trailing by 25,000 votes (1%)
Iowa: Bush within 800 votes. Now 125 votes....
Bush takes Alaska. That makes it 269.
10 PM PST: Ken Salazar beats Pete Coors in Colorado.
Bush is now ahead by 1,400 votes in Iowa. Now 2,800. Now 3,400. Now 4,400. I'm liking this trend. Now 7,000. I think Bush is going to take Iowa.
Now it's 11,000. Stick a fork in Kerry in the Hawkeye state. And that puts Bush over the top, with Nevada and New Mexico and perhaps Hawaii yet to turn "red."
Lookie here: Lisa Murkowski is seven points ahead of Tony Knowles in Alaska with half the votes counted. Cooooool.
Good thing, too, because somehow Tom Daschle just vaulted 5,000 votes higher and now leads John Thune by 2,400 votes. Hello, Indian reservation fraud.
Now Thune has roared back and is up by 6,500 votes. Anybody else want to make any "Custer's last stand" references?
Just heard that Mary Beth Cahill is firing the first shot of the litigation phase of the campaign over Ohio. But Bush leads by 100,000 votes (2%) with 92% reporting, and Ohio election law requires a recount only when the final margin is within 0.25%. The Dems have friendly federal judges there as we've seen over the past week or two, but they've been reversed in both of their vote fraud-endorsing decisions. Don't know about the state court makeup, but Ohio is a lot more Republican and has been for a lot longer than Florida. And remember its GOP legislature, and the practical reality that Gore couldn't sue his way past a 1,700 vote deficit, much less one sixteen times that size, in a state more favorable to him.
Oh, yeah, Kerry'll sue, but I don't think it'll be the same riveting drama that Florida 2K was.
Here's a thought: with Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and Hawaii in Bush's column, that would put him at 290 - enough of a cushion to offset Ohio. Wouldn't that be a "nyah-nyah-nyah"....
11 PM PST: New Mexico, BTW, has Bush up five with 93% reporting. That one's over.
Nevada has Bush up 5,000 votes with 56% reporting. That one's still hanging, but should end up in the President's column. Now it's 10,000 votes with 65% reporting.
Hawaii, OTOH, looks like it was a pipedream after all.
Opie Edwards just declared victory. And just after that, Bush added 10,000 votes to his Ohio lead.
Taking one last look around the fruited plain before calling it a night....
-The GOP picked up five House seats to expand its majority to 234-201.
-The GOP picked up four Senate seats, losing Colorado and Illinois and picking up Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and South Dakota, to expand its majority to 55-45.
-Bush now leads by 140,000 votes (2%) in Ohio with 98% reporting.
-Bush now leads by 16,000 votes (2%) in Nevada with 82% reporting.
-Bush now leads by 12,000 votes (1%) in Iowa with 98% reporting.
-Bush now leads by 28,000 votes (5%) in New Mexico with 97% reporting.
Bush won the popular vote by over 3.5 million votes (51-48). Bush won the Electoral College 286-252.
George W. Bush has been re-elected to a second term as President of the United States.
And John Kerry can go to hell.
Anyway, this little, out-of-the-way rural fire station is usually deserted at this hour. This morning it was packed, although there weren't lines wrapping around the building or anything. Given the driving rainstorm, I came prepared with my umbrella, which could also double as a blunt weapon if needed.
There appeared (I didn't ask) to be two poll watchers there, presumably one from each party. Didn't notice any tension in the air, though the man in front of me claimed that he'd been sent to the wrong precinct and was given a provisional ballot. Don't know if that means anything, but in this election you never know.
Just turned off Sean Hannity after his third "GET YOUR ASS OUT THERE AND VOTE THE FATE OF THE WORLD DEPENDS UPON IT!!!" monologue in forty-five minutes. I understand what he's trying to do, and more power to him, but having already voted myself, it was just getting on my nerves.
I'm not paying much heed to early exit polling. Case in point is the report purporting to show Kerry up a point in Ohio and Florida. A little while later came the other shoe: that exit polling sample was 60% women/40% men. If the Boston Balker can't do any better with that skewed a sample, it just might be a short night tonight.
Heard about fraud and sabotage, power being cut to a GOP HQ in Allegheny, Pennsylvania, tires of thirty GOP GOTV vehicles slashed in Colorado, two thousand "pre-votes" on Philadelphia voting machines, etc. Some are calling this desperation; I maintain that this is simply who and what the Democrats have become. Further proof can be found in the preparations some on the far Left are making for mass riots if the election is "stolen" (i.e. Bush wins). Mark this well: the President's re-election, even in a landslide, is not going to make these people to go away. They're only going to get angrier, dirtier, more lawless, and more violent. The domestic terrorism threat we've been thinking of as being mounted from abroad (i.e. al Qaeda) may end up being entirely home-grown in the fever swamps of liberal insanity.
Heard that John Thune is up four in South Dakota. Yeah, it's early and doesn't mean much, but given Tom Daschle's panic attack yesterday, it seems to be a harbinger of what the perhaps-soon-to-be-former Senate Minority Leader was afraid of.
More to come, the direction of which will be judgable by the profanity level....
After 3 PM PST: Been surfing around, reading this and that. Kerryians freaking out in Oregon; talk of Bush winning Florida and Ohio "in a rout" and Pennsylvania being "tied"; heady stuff, at least for mid-afternoon on the West Coast.
Still meaningless, of course. But it's difficult not to feel that something very good is building out there.
But not if the networks have anything to say about it.
After 4 PM PST: According to RedState, "Sources Say 'It is over. Bush won. Ohio and Florida are secure.'" We shall see.
Georgia, Indiana, and Kentucky have been called for Bush. Kerry conquers Vermont. No surprises yet.
Johnny Isakson succeeds Zel Miller in Georgia, again, as expected.
4:30 PM PST: Bush wins West Virginia. Virginia and South Carolina "too close to call"? Huh?
Just heard early Virginia returns: 57-43 Bush. And RCP reports Bush up 55-45 in South Carolina. Nyah-nyah-nyah.
Jim Bunning is behind in Kentucky. That seat was supposed to be safe.
Whoops, now it's narrowing....
5 PM PST: Very first returns from Ohio: 52-48 Bush. Very first returns from Florida: 56-43 Bush.
As my online friend John Ross likes to say, "Hubba-hubba."
Jim DeMint has won in South Carolina. And Richard Burr is up eighteen in North Carolina.
Good Gawd: with 2% of precincts reporting, New Jersey is tied.
New Hampshire at the same point is 59-41 Kerry.
Bush wins Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, leading 2-1 in North Carolina. Kerry collects Connecticut, Maine (but not the 2nd Congressional district!), Massachusetts, Delaware, DC, Maryland, Illinois. (yawn)
5:30 PM PST: Tom Coburn is the new Senator from Oklahoma.
Bush's lead is holding in Florida at 55-44.
Jim Bunning has closed to within two points in Kentucky. Now he's pulled into a tie.
Bush wins Virginia, North Carolina, Texas.
Early call on Ohio: Too close to call.
6 PM PST: Bush rolls up the plains states. Ooooh, now Bush has moved ahead in Ohio 53-47 with 5% reporting, perhaps on the strength of an increase to 15% of the black vote.
Hmmm. Bush's Florida lead down to seven. Probably the lib counties reporting in. They'll be offset by the heavily GOP panhandle counties.
New York must have been called for Kerry by now. Ah, there 'tis. Also Rhode Island.
Bunning is now ahead slightly in Kentucky with 89% reporting.
FWIW, so far Bush is winning the overall popular vote by 9%.
First results from Michigan and Wisconsin: Bush leads.
In Illinois, Barack Obama is leading Alan Keyes 125% to -25%. Or something like that.
Bush wins Louisiana. Will Congressman Vitter clear the 50% hurdle to avoid a December runoff?
Time to get some dinner. Be back in a few.
7PM PST: Bush sweeps the South plus Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Missouri. His Ohio lead is holding. And the Bushies think they're going to pull out New Hampshire. And now he's taken the lead there.
Just heard a second-hand warning from an "unnamed GOP source" that Florida is about to drastically tighten. Again, we'll see. With 80% reporting, Bush is still leading by six. If this happens, it almost has to be fraud-driven. But don't forget the ~150,000-vote Republican advantage in the absentees.
83% reporting, and it's down to four. Team Bush is expecting to win by three.
88% of Florida reporting, and Bush lead is five.
Jim Bunning survives.
Bush leading in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado. Kerry leading in Iowa and Minnesota.
Kerry finally captures New Jersey, 52-47. Almost exactly the margin I predicted.
Kerry wins Pennsylvania. Lotsa fraud there.
8 PM PST: 94% reporting in Florida, Bush still leads by five. Reportedly the networks are going to wait until 2008 to declare the state for Hillary Clinton.
Why hasn't Kerry declared victory yet? Is he rummaging around trying to find his 8mm video camera so he can re-enact Election night the "right" way?
Richard Burr is Opie Edwards' successor in North Carolina.
8:30 PM PST: The networks call Florida for Bush. That by itself is the biggest upset of the night. The networks making the call, I mean.
65% reporting in Ohio, and Bush is still up by four.
Kerry has taken the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Also leading in Nevada. But Bush still has New Mexico.
The Electoral map is looking more and more like an instant replay of 2000, which means that the President's litigation cushion is evaporating.
Bush pockets Idaho.
9 PM PST: The answer to my earlier question is yes, David Vitter did clear 50% and is the next Senator from Louisiana.
Looks like California and Washington are trending to Lurch, as expected.
Ruh-row. Ohio is tightening to two points with 74% reporting. But Wisconsin is tightening again. Ditto Iowa.
76% reporting in Ohio now, and Bush is back up by three.
It appears that the Kerryians' panic about Oregon was unfounded.
From the KerrySpot:
New Mexico: With 70% of the precincts reporting, Bush leads, 51-48.
Wisconsin: With 52% of the precincts reporting, Kerry leads, 50-49.
Minnesota: With 45% of the precincts reporting, Kerry leads, 53-46.
Iowa: With 68% of the precincts reporting, Kerry leads, 51-49.
Those seventeen additional EVs would look awfully good right about now.
John Thune is out in front of Tom Daschle by 3,700 votes in South Dakota, which is a whole lot in that state. Also, Mel Martinez is up 61,000 votes in Florida.
Well I'll be damned - Ohio has been called for Bush! Can the fat lady be about to sing?
Forget New Hampshire, BTW. Ditto Maine's 2nd Congressional district.
But all Bush needs to clear 270 is New Mexico.
Wisconsin: 65% reporting, Bush trailing by 25,000 votes (1%)
Iowa: Bush within 800 votes. Now 125 votes....
Bush takes Alaska. That makes it 269.
10 PM PST: Ken Salazar beats Pete Coors in Colorado.
Bush is now ahead by 1,400 votes in Iowa. Now 2,800. Now 3,400. Now 4,400. I'm liking this trend. Now 7,000. I think Bush is going to take Iowa.
Now it's 11,000. Stick a fork in Kerry in the Hawkeye state. And that puts Bush over the top, with Nevada and New Mexico and perhaps Hawaii yet to turn "red."
Lookie here: Lisa Murkowski is seven points ahead of Tony Knowles in Alaska with half the votes counted. Cooooool.
Good thing, too, because somehow Tom Daschle just vaulted 5,000 votes higher and now leads John Thune by 2,400 votes. Hello, Indian reservation fraud.
Now Thune has roared back and is up by 6,500 votes. Anybody else want to make any "Custer's last stand" references?
Just heard that Mary Beth Cahill is firing the first shot of the litigation phase of the campaign over Ohio. But Bush leads by 100,000 votes (2%) with 92% reporting, and Ohio election law requires a recount only when the final margin is within 0.25%. The Dems have friendly federal judges there as we've seen over the past week or two, but they've been reversed in both of their vote fraud-endorsing decisions. Don't know about the state court makeup, but Ohio is a lot more Republican and has been for a lot longer than Florida. And remember its GOP legislature, and the practical reality that Gore couldn't sue his way past a 1,700 vote deficit, much less one sixteen times that size, in a state more favorable to him.
Oh, yeah, Kerry'll sue, but I don't think it'll be the same riveting drama that Florida 2K was.
Here's a thought: with Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and Hawaii in Bush's column, that would put him at 290 - enough of a cushion to offset Ohio. Wouldn't that be a "nyah-nyah-nyah"....
11 PM PST: New Mexico, BTW, has Bush up five with 93% reporting. That one's over.
Nevada has Bush up 5,000 votes with 56% reporting. That one's still hanging, but should end up in the President's column. Now it's 10,000 votes with 65% reporting.
Hawaii, OTOH, looks like it was a pipedream after all.
Opie Edwards just declared victory. And just after that, Bush added 10,000 votes to his Ohio lead.
Taking one last look around the fruited plain before calling it a night....
-The GOP picked up five House seats to expand its majority to 234-201.
-The GOP picked up four Senate seats, losing Colorado and Illinois and picking up Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and South Dakota, to expand its majority to 55-45.
-Bush now leads by 140,000 votes (2%) in Ohio with 98% reporting.
-Bush now leads by 16,000 votes (2%) in Nevada with 82% reporting.
-Bush now leads by 12,000 votes (1%) in Iowa with 98% reporting.
-Bush now leads by 28,000 votes (5%) in New Mexico with 97% reporting.
Bush won the popular vote by over 3.5 million votes (51-48). Bush won the Electoral College 286-252.
George W. Bush has been re-elected to a second term as President of the United States.
And John Kerry can go to hell.
posted by JASmius at 1:02 PM
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