Deterrence Requires Fangs

This interesting "change of heart" on the part of North Korean dictator Kim jung-iL is, I think, very instructive:

Capping a week of rising tension with a conciliatory note, a foreign ministry statement issued late Sunday said Pyongyang was ready to sit down and resolve the standoff through six-party talks.

"Our will to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and seek a negotiated solution to (the nuclear standoff) still remains unchanged," the statement said Monday, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

It also dropped a precondition to a resumption of the six-way talks by denying it had ever asked for separate, one-on-one talks with Washington, a demand the United States has rejected.

"We have never requested the DPRK (North Korea)-US talks independent of the six-way talks," the foreign ministry spokesman was quoted as saying.

My goodness, but Kim suddenly can't kiss Dubya's ass wetly enough - so much so as to try, in telltale Orwellian fashion, to put over that the bullyboy, sabre-rattling intransigence eminating from Pyongyang in recent months never existed. Now what do you suppose could have brought on such a dizzying about-face?

Ed Morrissey has a sound suggestion:

Pyongyang knows that it won't move the Bush Administration through threats, at least not in ways it wants. It found that out when Condoleezza Rice threw Kim's missile test back in their faces, reminding Kim that the US has more nuclear warheads on one submarine than Kim has altogether - and that if he wants to play the game that way, we can certainly escalate it right along with him. That exchange may have been instructive for both Pyongyang and our erstwhile nonproliferation partners in Beijing. One suspects that the Chinese may have more than just a little influence on Kim's latest note of conciliation. [my emphasis]

Alrighty then, now ask yourself this question: why did Kim apparently take Secretary Rice's counter-threat seriously? Could it be because President Bush said he was going to liberate Afghanistan and eradicate the Taliban - and then did so? And because President Bush said he was going to liberate Iraq and effect regime change at Saddam Hussein's expense - and then did so? And because President Bush declared that he was going to defeat the post-war "insurgency" and ensure the establishment of Iraqi democracy - and then did so?

Teddy Roosevelt used to describe this foreign policy school as "speaking softly and carrying a big stick." The Bush corollary is, as Yosemite Sam once said, "and I use the stick too!" Without that track record - call it international "street cred" - warnings and threats are just words (as we saw throughout the Clinton years). Mr. Bill went eyeball to eyeball with Kim's dad, and Clinton blinked; that's why the NKComms have nukes today. By stark contrast, the Iranian mullahgarchy couldn't unload the American embassy hostages fast enough in January 1981 for fear of what "mad nuclear bomber" Ronald Reagan might do. And because George Bush gouged out Saddam's eyes with a bayonet, he can make Kim the son, and Muammar Khaddafy, blink "pre-emptively" without even firing a wink.

Even if Kim is crazy, he knows who pays his bills, and the last thing the ChiComms need as they painstakingly prepare their bid for world power is their "client" upsetting the applecart by provoking us prematurely, to say nothing of scaring Japan and Taiwan into a regional nuclear arms race. The PRC wants the six-nation talks to go forward so they can drag them out and run out the clock on the Bush Administration in the hopes that President Hillary will bring a return to the weakness and stupidity that they can exploit to bring their global dreams to fruition.

I'm scarcely any less dubious about these six-nation talks than I would be the bilateral ones, for just the above reason. But it was critical that we stick to our guns and make them knuckle under, rather than reward their attempts at crude intimidation. Besides, I can just imagine what that phone call from Beijing must have been like, and the expression on "Dear Leader's" face as he uttered a succession of, "Sir, yes sir"s.

Wouldna happened if Senator "Nuance" was sitting in the Oval Office. A thought that is a deterrent against electing anyone of his ilk ever again.