Monday, May 09, 2005

First Step Toward "Bush, the Trilogy"?

Mayhap it is, mayhap it isn't. But it sure looks like it.

Striking a moralistic tone that drew loud applause, Florida Governor Jeb Bush told Georgia Republicans at their state convention that standing for "absolute truth" on issues such as abortion will be key to the GOP's future success.

"We cannot ignore these moral issues," Bush, the convention's featured speaker, told about 1,500 Republican state officials and delegates Saturday. "If we stand strong ... Republicans in Georgia, in Florida and across the country will be on our ascendancy."

While he touched on common themes of cutting taxes and improving education, Bush got the most rousing cheers when he ticked off a list of measures targeting abortion that passed the Florida Legislature this year.

In their legislative session that ended Friday, Florida lawmakers approved tougher state regulations on clinics that perform second-trimester abortions and voted to require parental notification when girls under 18 seek abortions. They also approved direct funding for counselors at crisis pregnancy centers and new state funds for adoptions.

Bush urged Georgia Republicans not to shy away from tackling similar issues "in a time of moral ambivalence."

"There is such a thing as right and wrong," Bush said. "Republicans cannot continue to win unless we talk with compassion and passion about absolute truth."

If that doesn't sound like credentials-burnishing and base-cultivation, I don't know what does.

In his 15-minute speech, Bush did not mention speculation on whether he might follow his father and his older brother in seeking the White House in 2008.

This far out, that's hardly surprising, whichever decision he makes. If he declines a run, why fuel speculation that he will? And if he ultimately does take the plunge, why announce it now and make himself the instant frontrunner (i.e. target) for the next three years?

Indeed, upon reflection Jeb's familial connections alone put him in a difficult spot. People (including yours truly) will continue speculating about him "taking his turn" at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue no matter how much he denies it. Anything he does (including delivering speeches to party gatherings) will be seen and interpreted through that lens. If he genuinely and emphatically doesn't want the top job, his next few years are guaranteed to be a royal pain in the ass.

But if the Florida guv does have an interest that he's keeping to himself, or changes his mind down the line, these same annoyances would seem to put him in the proverbial catbird's seat. He wouldn't have to spend time and funds building up name recognition or goodwill with the GOP base. And his resume as two-term governor of a large "red" state would give him instant credibility as a general election contender. The '08 Republican nomination would be his for the taking. And the party would have a nominee with the star power to take on, and beat down, Hillary Clinton.

However it turns out, it seems safe to conclude that the more speeches like this one that Jeb Bush gives, the more open his "options" will become - and the better situated he, and the Republican Party, will be to keep the White House "in the family" three years from November.