Why Rick Santorum Is In Trouble

Hint: it isn't because of rogue Rockefella kneecappers like the so-called "Republican" Majority For Choice....

Santorum has found himself increasingly on the wrong side of the conservative base that has been responsible for electing him again and again. He not only supported liberal Senator Arlen Specter over the staunchly conservative Pat Toomey in 2004, but Santorum actively worked toward Specter’s re-election. Santorum has endorsed the idea of raising the minimum wage by $2 over two years, and refused to rule out raising taxes to offset the cost of Social Security reform.

These few examples, combined with a handful of others, have given many conservative Pennsylvanians pause as they consider the battle to be fought in 2006. Many realize that [Donk challenger and Pennsylvania State Treasurer Bob] Casey is a liberal, in spite of his pro-life statements. However, they have also become increasingly apathetic over what they perceive as betrayals by Santorum. This apathy could be his downfall. [emphasis added]

Now matter how many times it is said, it always bears repeating: In politics in general, and especially in the heated partisan landscape of our present time, turnout is everything. An emblematic (and largely past) conservative like Rick Santorum long ago provided the other side of the aisle with all the incentive they will ever need to crawl through flaming walls of rabid rattlesnakes on crazed scorpions and broken razor blades to drag him out of the United States Senate by the throat, and doubtless to the nearest metaphorical tree along with a length of rope. What the last three election cycles have demonstrated is that when the Republican (by which I mean conservatives) base is equally as energized, none of that left-wingnut mania matters - even in a "powder-blue" state like Pennsylvania.

There are, quite simply, more center-right voters than there are center-left voters in "red" and swing-states. This is, broadly speaking, why there are more Republican legislators in Washington, D.C. than there are their Democrat counterparts. But if Republican legislators take enough ideological departures from their proclaimed doctrinal orthodoxy and over a sufficiently long period of time - or on an issue or issues of critical importance to their base supporters - recent political history shows time and again that GOP voters will stay home on Election Day.

This helps explain why Senator Santorum seemed to be going out of his way to make amends with those core supporters last year. But will publicity stunts and rhetorical flourishes be sufficient? The aforelinked Jason High doesn't think so:

Santorum needs to reignite the passion among conservatives that has existed in years past....To make sure that this happens, Santorum needs to change philosophies. The current strategy seems to be to [drumroll, please...] attract moderates, likely resulting from the fact that many pro-life Democrats that previously voted for Santorum will abandon him to vote for Casey. Santorum seems to feel that he must give them another reason to vote for him. This strategy, in fact, will only exacerbate the problem. The more moderate Santorum tries to become, the more disenfranchised conservatives will feel. This will create a dream scenario for Casey and a nightmare for Santorum.

Santorum simply needs to get back to basics. More talk about tax cuts, strong anti-abortion statements, and many, many more events with Toomey. [emphases added]

It comes down to one fundamental question: how did Rick Santorum get elected (and re-elected) to the Senate in the first place? By being Arlen Specter's mini-me, or by "being himself"?

Coming up with the right answer to that question will determine whether Pennsylvania will continue to have one bona fide Republican senator.