In The Pale Moonlight

It seems there is quite a bit of disagreement in U.S. government circles about Red China's "failure" to "persuade" Kim jong-il from "testing" his Taepodong-II ICBM:

Pentagon officials tell us China's government failed utterly to come through on private pledges to the Bush Administration to halt North Korea's missile tests. Worse, some officials say, it is likely Beijing deceived the United States about its efforts to dissuade North Korea from the apparent tests and that China may have tacitly backed the seven missile launches earlier this week.

"This demonstrates how impotent the Chinese are and the incredibly low level of influence they have over their North Korean brethren," one official told us. A second official suggested that China deliberately misled the United States into thinking that it had prevailed on North Korea not to conduct the launches, which have triggered a regional crisis, led by concerns that Japan may impose sanctions.

In case you're experiencing any similar doubts, trust me, go with official #2. Why is not complicated in the slightest: Red China is the source of pretty much every resource the Kim regime needs to keep itself propped up. Beijing has his nuts in their collective vise, and could quickly and mercilessly squeeze him into submission if they really wanted to. The reason they don't is because they don't want to; having a crazoid client state that makes trouble for and otherwise irksomely distracts the United States from more strategic parts of the world, and potentially splits us from our Japanese and South Korean allies, the latter of which could then be bullied into submission or even satellite status, is very much in the ChiComms' interest.

That fact was illustrated yet again this week at the United [heh] Nations:

China and Russia introduced a resolution Wednesday deploring North Korea's missile tests but dropping language from a rival proposal that could have led to military action against Pyongyang. ...

China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya said he had been instructed to veto a much- stronger Japanese resolution, which is supported by the U.S., Britain, France and four other countries.

Wang previously said Beijing objected to three key elements in the Japanese draft: the determination that the missile tests threatened international peace and security; authorizing action under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter which can be enforced militarily; and mandatory sanctions aimed at curbing North Korea's missile and nuclear programs.

The Chinese-Russian draft resolution drops those three elements, which Japan and the United States consider crucial.

Of course the Sino-Russian draft resolution has no teeth - they don't want their NoKo puppet to actually get bitten. Kim is way too valuable to them right where he is, doing just what he's doing. The latest phase of which is the alienation of South Korea (no mean feat these days):

Talks between the two Koreas collapsed in acrimony on Thursday with North Korea saying its neighbour would "pay a price" for the failure and the South withholding any more aid to the impoverished North.

"The South side will pay a price before the nation for causing the collapse of the ministerial talks and bringing a collapse of North-South relations that is unforeseeable now," the North Korean delegation to the meeting said in a statement.

The abrupt end to the cabinet-level talks was the latest failure to resolve a mounting crisis over North Korea's missile launches last week. North Korea's comments were among the bitterest since Seoul embarked on an engagement policy with Pyongyang six years ago in an effort to end the Cold War's last major confrontation.

All the ROK wanted was an "explanation" for why Pyongyang launched its missile barrage last week. I guess the NoKo delegation wasn't in any mood to indulge stupid questions, as they blew off the SoKo entreaty and moved directly to heavy-duty extortion of more food and economic aid. Their counterparts responded by cutting off that assistance pending North Korea's return to the stalled six-party talks, an unlikely possibility given how long those talks have been suspended and the Rubicon last week's missile "tests" are proving to be.

That isn't the only South Korean reaction though. This week their defense ministry announced plans for a massive military buildup/modernization plan over the next decade and a half. And Japan, reportedly "badly rattled" by Kim's "firecrackers," is moving toward its own brand of military pre-emption against North Korea, as well as possibly building its own nuclear deterrent.

I can't say I'm thrilled at the prospect of a nuclear arms race in East Asia. But I can't say I'm surprised, either, or that I blame the Japanese for wanting to be able to defend themselves. And you can bet the ChiComms are definitely unenthused at the spectre of a nuclear Japan and/or South Korea (and/or Taiwan, for that matter).

This is where the situation in the Far East can grow much bigger than just the fiefdom of the pot-bellied tyrant with the gargoyle shades. If Beijing has miscalculated by over-provoking its regional enemies, they may feel compelled to make an overt, near-term move - say, the long-promised grab for Taiwan - in order to regain the initiative and intimidate Japan and South Korea away from militarization and close coordination with the U.S. With the North Korean situation as it is, would we have either the will or the resources to defend the Taiwanese from a PLA invasion? Indeed, I can see such an operation coordinated with more threats and "tests" from Kim, perhaps even another invasion of South Korea, the intended result of which would be American paralysis and ChiComm strategic victory.

One thing seems crystal clear (everywhere outside the U.S. State Department, anyway): to once again employ a chess metaphor, if the globe is a board, North Korea is Beijing's knight, making reckless forays against our Japanese and South Korean rooks. Meanwhile, their Iranian queen prepares to spring a trap on our Israeli bishop, leaving us exposed from both directions.

I won't go so far as to say that we're approaching checkmate yet. But "check" is becoming a bona fide possibility.