Why Lebanon
The new Middle East war is intensifying as Hezbollah and Israel kept upping the ante yesterday, culminating in a de facto state of war - with Lebanon?
We've discussed Israel's strategic quandary over the past few days. How their policy of retreat from Gaza has encouraged and emboldened Hamas, Hezbollah, and other Islamist terror gangs to push the Jews even harder, culminating in the bombardment of Israeli cities and the recent spate of kidnappings of IDF troops, and the cripplingly reactive mindset that is governing the farily massive Israeli retaliation. And most specifically, how they're being manipulated by Iran into a showdown that the mullahs evidently feel the Jewish State cannot win, at least not by itself (hint, hint).
So, the question keeps arising, why are they focusing so hard on Lebanon? Israeli's northern neighbor only freed itself from Syrian domination a year and a half ago, and while Hezbollah has a role in its government, it doesn't have control like Hamas does of the Palestinian Authority and doesn't have the capability of ousting Hezbollah from its territory. It is Syria that controls both terror groups; logically Israeli tanks should be rolling toward Damascus, not Beirut.
This is Cap'n Ed's argument. And there are several answers to it.
1) As agitated as the Israelis clearly are, they are trying to contain the spread of the conflict. If they can cut off Hezbollah from their Syrian sponsors, surround it, and kill it, like the IDF is working on doing to Hamas in Gaza, they solve at least the immediate problem without the drastic escalation that attacking Syria would bring. Remember that Syria and Iran have a mutual defense pact, so if Israeli forces pour east from Golan, they're attacking Iran as well.
2) If they can do (1) without alienating the broader Lebanese population, they might earn the latter's goodwill at ridding their country of the de facto occupying force that the Syrians left behind. Evidence suggests that this is what the Israelis are, in fact, doing, with considerable success.
3) They want to prevent Hezbollah from being resupplied, and from moving their captured Israeli soldiers to Iran:
This is obviously what the Iranians want. To provoke a war with Israel in which the latter will be overmatched, forcing the Jewish state's patron hyperpower to intervene, where tactics ranging from closing the Strait of Hormuz (the oil weapon) to nuking targets in Israel and American forces in Iraq and the Persian Gulf could come into play. The West, horrified, then flees the Middle East in terror, Iran takes over the entire region and moves up to global superpower status.
Hey, nobody ever said the mullahs lack for ambition. However, by avoiding engaging Syria, and moving to isolate Hezbollah and keep those IDF prisoners in Lebanon, the Israelis look to be trying to deny the Iranians the scenario they desire.
As to why the Israelis are fighting at all after schleping themselves down the road to another Holocaust for the past decade and a half, it has most to do with "cultural" factors, as the latest Stratfor Anaylsis explains:
Put another way, Israel will never have quantitative superiority over their Muslim enemies, but for over half a century they have relied upon their qualitative superiority in training, tactics, and equipment to make up that permanent deficit. Now the Jews fear that that qualitative advantage is dwindling, and they have essentially panicked. They have to restore the pre-"peace process" status quo ante at the very least, and to do that they must destroy Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, et al - the Iranians' pawns - to reset the proverbial "board."
That's why they're fumigating Lebanon and Gaza with such ruthless abandon - it may be their last chance to keep their national destiny in their own hands. And yet they have to do so without playing into berserker Iranian hands.
These, then, are the wages of years of appeasement: walking across a high-wire thousands of feet in the air over a massive shark & crocodile tank in the middle of an electrical/hail/wind storm while wearing a tinfoil bodysuit with a lightning rod cap. One misstep, one slip, and the whole thing conflagrates.
If you've never made much of a habit of praying, now might be a good time to start. God's chosen people could use all the help they can get.
Israel intensified its attacks against Lebanon on Thursday, blasting Beirut's international airport and the southern part of the country in its heaviest air campaign against its neighbor in 24 years. Nearly three dozen civilians were killed, officials said.
The strikes on the airport, which damaged three runways, came hours before Israel imposed an air and naval blockade on Lebanon to cut off supply routes to militants....
In a stark warning, the Israeli army chief said Thursday that Israel's air force is prepared to strike anywhere in Lebanon, including the capital of Beirut, if the Lebanese government fails to rein in Hezbollah guerrillas.
"We are not at war, but we are in a very high volume crisis, and we have an intention to put an end to the situation here along the northern border," Brigidair-General Dan Halutz said in Jerusalem.
We've discussed Israel's strategic quandary over the past few days. How their policy of retreat from Gaza has encouraged and emboldened Hamas, Hezbollah, and other Islamist terror gangs to push the Jews even harder, culminating in the bombardment of Israeli cities and the recent spate of kidnappings of IDF troops, and the cripplingly reactive mindset that is governing the farily massive Israeli retaliation. And most specifically, how they're being manipulated by Iran into a showdown that the mullahs evidently feel the Jewish State cannot win, at least not by itself (hint, hint).
So, the question keeps arising, why are they focusing so hard on Lebanon? Israeli's northern neighbor only freed itself from Syrian domination a year and a half ago, and while Hezbollah has a role in its government, it doesn't have control like Hamas does of the Palestinian Authority and doesn't have the capability of ousting Hezbollah from its territory. It is Syria that controls both terror groups; logically Israeli tanks should be rolling toward Damascus, not Beirut.
This is Cap'n Ed's argument. And there are several answers to it.
1) As agitated as the Israelis clearly are, they are trying to contain the spread of the conflict. If they can cut off Hezbollah from their Syrian sponsors, surround it, and kill it, like the IDF is working on doing to Hamas in Gaza, they solve at least the immediate problem without the drastic escalation that attacking Syria would bring. Remember that Syria and Iran have a mutual defense pact, so if Israeli forces pour east from Golan, they're attacking Iran as well.
2) If they can do (1) without alienating the broader Lebanese population, they might earn the latter's goodwill at ridding their country of the de facto occupying force that the Syrians left behind. Evidence suggests that this is what the Israelis are, in fact, doing, with considerable success.
3) They want to prevent Hezbollah from being resupplied, and from moving their captured Israeli soldiers to Iran:
[T]his would explain the efforts against Lebanese military and civilian airfields. The Israelis want to ensure that Goldwasser and Regev do not wind up in Tehran. If they do, however, Iran would have two choices: turn the soldiers over to the International Red Cross/Red Crescent immediately, or assume the role of combatant in the conflict. Unless Iran turned over the soldiers to a neutral party, they will have committed an act of war.
This is obviously what the Iranians want. To provoke a war with Israel in which the latter will be overmatched, forcing the Jewish state's patron hyperpower to intervene, where tactics ranging from closing the Strait of Hormuz (the oil weapon) to nuking targets in Israel and American forces in Iraq and the Persian Gulf could come into play. The West, horrified, then flees the Middle East in terror, Iran takes over the entire region and moves up to global superpower status.
Hey, nobody ever said the mullahs lack for ambition. However, by avoiding engaging Syria, and moving to isolate Hezbollah and keep those IDF prisoners in Lebanon, the Israelis look to be trying to deny the Iranians the scenario they desire.
As to why the Israelis are fighting at all after schleping themselves down the road to another Holocaust for the past decade and a half, it has most to do with "cultural" factors, as the latest Stratfor Anaylsis explains:
The great inherent fear of Israel is that the Arabs will equal or surpass Israeli prowess culturally and therefore militarily. If that were to happen, then all three realities would turn against Israel and Israel might well be at risk.
That is why the capture of Israeli troops, first one in the south, then two in the north, has galvanized Israel. The kidnappings represent a level of Arab tactical prowess that previously was the Israeli domain. They also represent a level of tactical slackness on the Israeli side that was previously the Arab domain. These events hardly represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power. Nevertheless, for a country that depends on its cultural superiority, any tremor in this variable reverberates dramatically. Hamas and Hezbollah have struck the core Israeli nerve. Israel cannot ignore it.
Put another way, Israel will never have quantitative superiority over their Muslim enemies, but for over half a century they have relied upon their qualitative superiority in training, tactics, and equipment to make up that permanent deficit. Now the Jews fear that that qualitative advantage is dwindling, and they have essentially panicked. They have to restore the pre-"peace process" status quo ante at the very least, and to do that they must destroy Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, et al - the Iranians' pawns - to reset the proverbial "board."
That's why they're fumigating Lebanon and Gaza with such ruthless abandon - it may be their last chance to keep their national destiny in their own hands. And yet they have to do so without playing into berserker Iranian hands.
These, then, are the wages of years of appeasement: walking across a high-wire thousands of feet in the air over a massive shark & crocodile tank in the middle of an electrical/hail/wind storm while wearing a tinfoil bodysuit with a lightning rod cap. One misstep, one slip, and the whole thing conflagrates.
If you've never made much of a habit of praying, now might be a good time to start. God's chosen people could use all the help they can get.
posted by JASmius at 3:19 PM
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