Tipping Point?

As I have maintained for the past decade, I do not rely upon feelings or wishful thinking or opposition trash talk or pep talks from my own side of the aisle to determine my election prognosticating. I go strictly by the numbers that I can access, the chips fall where they may. It's the best way I know to be objective, and keep my own partisan feelings from getting in the way.

As you can see from the right-hand sidebar, as of today the Democrats would regain 50-50 parity in the Senate and come within 220-215 of regaining control of the House. These numbers have moved significantly toward the Donks in the past week.

I don't know if this is leftover Foley effect or a confirmation that the lesson of 9/11 has exhausted its shelf life, but there's no dressing them up. It appears, much as it frightens me to say it and despite having the clear advantage on both national security and the booming Bush economy, that the home stretch momentum has swung to the Democrats, and, unless something dramatic happens to intervene (the NoKo nuclear test?), they will walk away with the majority in both houses of the 110th Congress.

That is not, by any means, my final call on Election 2006. But it's what the race looks like coming around the final turn.

UPDATE: In case any of you need something to lure you back in off the ledge, Hugh Hewitt is still optimistic:

Jim Talent has "separated" as the pros like to say from the increasingly repellant as well as simply gaffe-prone and overmatched McCaskill.

Mike DeWine is tied with hard left Sherrod Brown, and the Ohio GOTV is not broken but actually energized as the Taft folks fade away.

Conrad Burns and Rick Santorum have decisively won key debates and the focus on their opponents has given them the momentum as the absentees roll out.

And The Great Snarl on the left simply cannot control itself and is the GOP's secret weapon.

Of course, Hugh is ALWAYS optimistic. Personally I'd buy his comment on Jim Talent, but that's about it. Well, and the Great Snarl, I guess.

Still, that'd be enough to hold the Senate without Dick Cheney having to be on hot-standby. After all, it's not as though we would be doing much more then treading water the next two years anyway.

UPDATE II: Here's some more optimism, and it comes from none other than the New York Times (via Cap'n Ed):

In the Senate, the NYT shows that the GOP has 47 solid seats with two leaners: Virginia and Arizona [which is to say 49 solid seats]....The latest MinnPoll shows Klobuchar up by over 20 points, which is laughable, and even the NYT understands that. Other leaners include Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana, all of which have credible Republican incumbents. Only three states are toss-ups, according to the Times, and those look suspicious to me. Missouri is one of the states, and Jim Talent has started to pull away from Claire McCaskill.

The House looks just as tight despite the supposed tidal wave of blue poised to roll across America. When one counts the solids and the leaners, the Democrats have a one-seat edge (210-209) with 16 seats in play. All 16 have Republican incumbents, including Curt Weldon, who has strong national-security credentials. It seems unlikely that any group of incumbents will wind up with only a 50% success rate for re-election, which makes it seem at least probable that the GOP could hold the majority after the midterms - albeit a much smaller majority.

Whatever. Just so the gavels are kept out of enemy hooves. As the old campaign ad cliche goes, America just can't afford that risk.

UPDATE III: Big Lizard is hot-blooded on GOP chances; the guys at Powerline, on the other hand, are preparing to flee into exile.

UPDATE IV: Rush Limbaugh cites this Boston Globe piece musing whether Dems retaking Congress by a whisker might not be an unmixed blessing for the DisLoyal Opposition after all as a significant piece of hedge-betting on the part of the Enemy Media against the still-extant possibility that the GOP majorities will survive.