Freefall
Nobody, it appears, is truly buying the Kerry spin on his campaign’s ongoing implosion other than Kerry himself.
Donald Lambro reports in the Washington Times on how Dem state party leaders in swing states are getting “nervous” and “jittery” at the “closeness” of the race.
They have a right to be antsy. Kerry has dropped nine-tenths of a point in my polling composite over the past week, and the 260-157 Electoral College lead he enjoyed then (with the rest in tossup states) has collapsed into a 191-139 deficit as of today [8/27]. This is the result of Missouri, Arizona, and Virginia moving from a tossup to “leaning Bush,” and Michigan, Florida, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and California moving from “leaning/solid Kerry” to tossups. (Maine reverted to Kerry’s column, while Ohio –barely – moved back within the margin of error, with Bush still up three points) Also, according to state polling numbers, if the election had been held a week ago, Kerry would have won with 301 Electoral Votes; today Bush would be the winner 300-238.
And just think – the GOP convention is still a week away.
One might suspect that Republicans would be terrified of this Swiftboat Vet business – particularly by listening to the President’s teeth-grinding piety yesterday. But, so a high-ranking Pachyderm tells Jim Geraghty…
[My thought: perhaps, but that doesn’t explain Bush’s public stance on the Swifties very well. All he would have to do is express “concern” at the controversy and urge his opponent to release all his military records to settle the matter once and for all. If Kerry would pull his head out of his ass long enough to recognize the concession Dubya is offering him, he could still possibly get out of this mess without critical damage to his election chances.]
[Another thought: the fact that it was so mild and temperate and moderate a figure as Bob Dole who weighed in lent a ton more ballast to a Swiftie cause that wasn’t exactly foundering for lack of gravitas as it was.]
The Bushie scuttlebutt is that they think the USS John Kerry has hit its iceberg, and after the President gets the healthy convention bounce they’re expecting, Bush will slowly pull away.
“Pull away” being a relative term, of course, in this polarized electorate. But even a five or six point bounce from where the race is now (i.e. tied and already trending in Dubya’s direction) – and remember that even Kerry got a combined four points from his veep announcement (three) and the Dem convention (one) – would be the equivalent of a double-digit lead in past elections. And with his Vietnam gimmick in tatters, and no issues on which to regain any traction, it’s difficult to see how Lurch could recover from that.
He better hope that Manhattan gets blown up next week. Could be his only remaining chance.
Donald Lambro reports in the Washington Times on how Dem state party leaders in swing states are getting “nervous” and “jittery” at the “closeness” of the race.
There's a lot of nervousness about how close it is, a lot of nervousness, [Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Gordon] Fischer said of the contest for this battleground state's seven electoral votes, which could decide who wins the White House on November 2nd.
Interviews with other Democratic chairmen in the battleground states finds that Iowa is not the only state where Democrats are getting nervous about the increasing closeness of the race so soon after the Democratic convention. One top Democratic official even expressed doubts about which way her state will go in the election.
They have a right to be antsy. Kerry has dropped nine-tenths of a point in my polling composite over the past week, and the 260-157 Electoral College lead he enjoyed then (with the rest in tossup states) has collapsed into a 191-139 deficit as of today [8/27]. This is the result of Missouri, Arizona, and Virginia moving from a tossup to “leaning Bush,” and Michigan, Florida, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and California moving from “leaning/solid Kerry” to tossups. (Maine reverted to Kerry’s column, while Ohio –barely – moved back within the margin of error, with Bush still up three points) Also, according to state polling numbers, if the election had been held a week ago, Kerry would have won with 301 Electoral Votes; today Bush would be the winner 300-238.
And just think – the GOP convention is still a week away.
One might suspect that Republicans would be terrified of this Swiftboat Vet business – particularly by listening to the President’s teeth-grinding piety yesterday. But, so a high-ranking Pachyderm tells Jim Geraghty…
* The idea that the Swift Boat Vets ads’ could boomerang on Bush is wishful thinking. Smart Democrats understand there’s nothing good about this for John Kerry.
[My thought: perhaps, but that doesn’t explain Bush’s public stance on the Swifties very well. All he would have to do is express “concern” at the controversy and urge his opponent to release all his military records to settle the matter once and for all. If Kerry would pull his head out of his ass long enough to recognize the concession Dubya is offering him, he could still possibly get out of this mess without critical damage to his election chances.]
* The Bush campaign isn’t worried that the Swift Boat Vets’ message will step on President Bush’s message during the convention.
* Despite Josh Marshall’s charges, Bob Dole wasn’t ‘sent out’ by the Bush campaign. The campaign offered to brief him on some issues, and he turned it down. ‘Bob Dole doesn’t let anybody tell Bob Dole what to do,’ the high-ranking Republican said, using the exact third-person style that Dole himself would use.
[Another thought: the fact that it was so mild and temperate and moderate a figure as Bob Dole who weighed in lent a ton more ballast to a Swiftie cause that wasn’t exactly foundering for lack of gravitas as it was.]
* The Republican also wasn’t impressed with Kerry’s efforts to urge television stations not to run the Swift Boats’ ad, wondering how loud the cries of outrage would have been if the Bush campaign had tried to prevent Fahrenheit 9/11 from running in theaters.”
The Bushie scuttlebutt is that they think the USS John Kerry has hit its iceberg, and after the President gets the healthy convention bounce they’re expecting, Bush will slowly pull away.
“Pull away” being a relative term, of course, in this polarized electorate. But even a five or six point bounce from where the race is now (i.e. tied and already trending in Dubya’s direction) – and remember that even Kerry got a combined four points from his veep announcement (three) and the Dem convention (one) – would be the equivalent of a double-digit lead in past elections. And with his Vietnam gimmick in tatters, and no issues on which to regain any traction, it’s difficult to see how Lurch could recover from that.
He better hope that Manhattan gets blown up next week. Could be his only remaining chance.
posted by JASmius at 6:34 PM
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