E-minus 7 days and counting....
The numbers as they stand at the end of the day today:
Poll Composite: Bush 49.1%, Kerry 44.9% (Bush +4.2 - no change)
Electoral College: Bush 213, Kerry 206 (tossups 119)
-Iowa moves from "leaning Bush" to tossup
-Michigan moves from "leaning Kerry" to tossup
-Pennsylvania moves from tossup to "leaning Kerry"
PROJECTIONS:
Popular Vote: Bush 51.4%, Kerry 47.0% (Bush +4.4 - down 0.1%)
Electoral College: Bush 318, Kerry 220
-Bush just barely noses past Kerry in Michigan
TOSSUP MARGINS:
-Arkansas: Bush +2.5
-Colorado: Bush +3.7
-Florida: Bush +1.1
-Hawaii: Bush +0.9
-Iowa: Bush +2.0
-Michigan: TIED (tie goes to the champion)
-Minnesota: Kerry +2.0
-Nevada: Bush +4.0
-New Hampshire: Kerry +2.4
-Ohio: Bush +1.3
-Wisconsin: Bush +1.5
Today's bottom line: If the President is leading by 4-5 points nationally, all the "tossup" states where he leads will fall into his column, plus probably Minnesota (Michigan being the bellweather in this instance). Throw Kerry back Hawaii as consolation prize and that leaves Bush with 323 Electoral Votes.
How can GDub be only breaking even in Florida and three points behind his 2000 pace in Ohio? (1) Kerry has made a much stronger effort there than Gore did; (2) I'd say vote fraud, but I know of no way to quantify that in a poll unless you specifically ask respondents, "are you voting illegally, and if so, for whom are you voting...?"; (3) much as in 2002, state polling is underreporting GOP mobilization capabilities.
As for Kerry's much-vaunted post-Election litigation offensive, I think it will be limited to Florida and Ohio (assuming both are close enough, AND he also carries Michigan, AND he holds onto Minnesota; otherwise, fugedaboudit), with Florida being the key. If Lurch could sue Florida into his column, he'd only need to flip one other state to go over the top. Without Florida, he'd need at least three, including Ohio, and that becomes a lot more problematic.
More likely is that his early declaration of "victory" will be on a par with his magic CIA hat, UN Security Council meeting, Vietnam combat exploits, and the rest of his treasured fantasies. He'll probably never concede as such.
But Bush will still be a two-term president.
Poll Composite: Bush 49.1%, Kerry 44.9% (Bush +4.2 - no change)
Electoral College: Bush 213, Kerry 206 (tossups 119)
-Iowa moves from "leaning Bush" to tossup
-Michigan moves from "leaning Kerry" to tossup
-Pennsylvania moves from tossup to "leaning Kerry"
PROJECTIONS:
Popular Vote: Bush 51.4%, Kerry 47.0% (Bush +4.4 - down 0.1%)
Electoral College: Bush 318, Kerry 220
-Bush just barely noses past Kerry in Michigan
TOSSUP MARGINS:
-Arkansas: Bush +2.5
-Colorado: Bush +3.7
-Florida: Bush +1.1
-Hawaii: Bush +0.9
-Iowa: Bush +2.0
-Michigan: TIED (tie goes to the champion)
-Minnesota: Kerry +2.0
-Nevada: Bush +4.0
-New Hampshire: Kerry +2.4
-Ohio: Bush +1.3
-Wisconsin: Bush +1.5
Today's bottom line: If the President is leading by 4-5 points nationally, all the "tossup" states where he leads will fall into his column, plus probably Minnesota (Michigan being the bellweather in this instance). Throw Kerry back Hawaii as consolation prize and that leaves Bush with 323 Electoral Votes.
How can GDub be only breaking even in Florida and three points behind his 2000 pace in Ohio? (1) Kerry has made a much stronger effort there than Gore did; (2) I'd say vote fraud, but I know of no way to quantify that in a poll unless you specifically ask respondents, "are you voting illegally, and if so, for whom are you voting...?"; (3) much as in 2002, state polling is underreporting GOP mobilization capabilities.
As for Kerry's much-vaunted post-Election litigation offensive, I think it will be limited to Florida and Ohio (assuming both are close enough, AND he also carries Michigan, AND he holds onto Minnesota; otherwise, fugedaboudit), with Florida being the key. If Lurch could sue Florida into his column, he'd only need to flip one other state to go over the top. Without Florida, he'd need at least three, including Ohio, and that becomes a lot more problematic.
More likely is that his early declaration of "victory" will be on a par with his magic CIA hat, UN Security Council meeting, Vietnam combat exploits, and the rest of his treasured fantasies. He'll probably never concede as such.
But Bush will still be a two-term president.
posted by JASmius at 6:29 PM
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