Whither Wobbly Warner?
As the clock ticks down to a possible (I'll still believe it only when I see it) showdown on triggering the Byrd option to break the Democrat filibuster against President Bush's appellate court nominees (and inevitable future blockade of his SCOTUS picks this summer), the question utmost on my mind is whether or not Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) has the votes to pull it off.
At one time or another over the past four months Frist and his deputy, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), have confidently declared that the votes are there. But one does have to wonder. Of the fifty-five GOP senators, three are already off the list: McCain, Chafee, and Snowe. That puts the yeas down to fifty-two, with a minimum cushion of two 'Pubbies (since it can be safely assumed that not even the Dems' Nelson twins - Bill of Florida and Ben of Nebraska - will run the blockade).
The problem? There are at least three more Pachyderms who are on the fence: Collins, Hagel, and now John Warner of Virginia.
Personally I'm writing off Collins, and I wouldn't trust Sailor's Mini-Me as far as I could spit and still get some of it on him. So it seems to come down to Warner, and it's anybody's guess where he'll come down, because he doesn't appear to have the slightest idea himself.
On the one hand he says this:
As if the Democrats wouldn't flip-flop on this issue in a heartbeat the instant they regained majority control. Which, of course, they would; that rule change would go through so fast the entire U.S. Capitol would be spinning, and the same Dem senators who were decrying the alleged obstruction of Bill Clinton's judges years ago and are defending the filibuster to the hilt now would once again revert to born-again majoritarians without missing so much as a single beat.
Warner's nonsense, you'll recall, is a regurgitation of what John McCain was saying before he officially bailed on Frist. And it's just as illogical now, as the Virginian went on to illustrate:
So he wishes Democrats would play nice, but won't do anything to make them. And he admits that the confirmation filibuster that he is reluctant to ban would never be exercised by him or any of his Republican colleagues anyway because they never did back when they were in the minority. AND we know that if the current majority doesn't change that rule, the Democrats will if/when they regain control.
Then, as if to confirm his utter uselessness, Senator Warner seemed to make it official:
Yet in this piece, he still sounds up in the air about it:
And still others believe that Warner will ultimately fall into line:
Other members of the "too cool for school" group? McCain and Hagel. Gee, don't you feel a lot better now?
A commenter at confirmthem.com added this additional wrinkle:
Here's another scenario I hadn't considered. Not voting to break the filibuster doesn't necessarily equate to voting to preserve it. If, in the above example, those four 'Pubbies punt, it's equivalent to a 96-member senate in which the GOP has a 51-45 edge. Forty-eight becomes the dividing line, in which case Hagel and Collins could defect outright and Fristy would still have a 49-47 edge.
I'll eat last week's shorts before I'll believe Ben Nelson will switch sides on this. And, indeed, the whole scenario above sounds more than a little far-fetched, if only because it implies a level of inventiveness and creativity that I have never credited to any Republican leader. But I'll take it with a side of fries if it means dunselizing the RINOs and breaking this political Gustav line.
Otherwise, the last Rubicon beyond which the final vestiges of American democracy will functionally perish will have been crossed. And Republican governance will die with it.
[HT: Double H]
At one time or another over the past four months Frist and his deputy, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), have confidently declared that the votes are there. But one does have to wonder. Of the fifty-five GOP senators, three are already off the list: McCain, Chafee, and Snowe. That puts the yeas down to fifty-two, with a minimum cushion of two 'Pubbies (since it can be safely assumed that not even the Dems' Nelson twins - Bill of Florida and Ben of Nebraska - will run the blockade).
The problem? There are at least three more Pachyderms who are on the fence: Collins, Hagel, and now John Warner of Virginia.
Personally I'm writing off Collins, and I wouldn't trust Sailor's Mini-Me as far as I could spit and still get some of it on him. So it seems to come down to Warner, and it's anybody's guess where he'll come down, because he doesn't appear to have the slightest idea himself.
On the one hand he says this:
“We can’t do damage to the Senate rules, which would come back to work against the interests of the Republican Party when we’re in the minority,” Warner said in an interview this week. “And believe me, you can look at history, that day will come.”…
As if the Democrats wouldn't flip-flop on this issue in a heartbeat the instant they regained majority control. Which, of course, they would; that rule change would go through so fast the entire U.S. Capitol would be spinning, and the same Dem senators who were decrying the alleged obstruction of Bill Clinton's judges years ago and are defending the filibuster to the hilt now would once again revert to born-again majoritarians without missing so much as a single beat.
Warner's nonsense, you'll recall, is a regurgitation of what John McCain was saying before he officially bailed on Frist. And it's just as illogical now, as the Virginian went on to illustrate:
Warner said Wednesday that he wishes Democrats would voluntarily end the debate and permit an up-or-down vote on the nominees. When Republicans were in the minority, he recalled, he voted against Democratic appointees he considered too liberal but refused to join efforts to kill their nominations by filibuster.
So he wishes Democrats would play nice, but won't do anything to make them. And he admits that the confirmation filibuster that he is reluctant to ban would never be exercised by him or any of his Republican colleagues anyway because they never did back when they were in the minority. AND we know that if the current majority doesn't change that rule, the Democrats will if/when they regain control.
Then, as if to confirm his utter uselessness, Senator Warner seemed to make it official:
Warner said he can’t go along with changing Senate rules to allow a simple majority – 51 senators – to force action. And a spokesman indicated Thursday that Warner also would be unwilling to support Frist’s call Thursday for a rule setting a 100-hour limit on debates over Supreme Court and appellate court vacancies.
Yet in this piece, he still sounds up in the air about it:
Depending on whom it is that you’re talking to, Virginia Senator John Warner is either solidly in favor of the Senate Republican plan to end judicial filibusters, or he is at least open to possible persuasion by those who would like to see the filibuster option preserved.
And still others believe that Warner will ultimately fall into line:
“We see Warner as being in the...‘too cool for school’ group,” said [Manuel] Miranda, the former nominations counsel to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-TN, who has
been leading the anti-filibuster effort. “If something isn’t their issue, they tend not to weigh in on it or get involved in the public debate. But when it’s time for a vote, they either follow the senior member from their home state or the party leadership,” Miranda told the AFP. “That’s what I see happening here. He (Warner) has never given me pause, so I don’t really pay him much mind at all,” Miranda said.
Other members of the "too cool for school" group? McCain and Hagel. Gee, don't you feel a lot better now?
A commenter at confirmthem.com added this additional wrinkle:
The latest from a staffer of a GOP Senator I talked with: McCain, Snowe, Chafee, Warner simply don’t respond to the roll call. Majority of Senators present and voting, with Cheney able to break a tie, controls. This is being worked on, said it looks good. Do the math, votes needed 48 plus Cheney...Also said [assumedly Ben] Nelson will vote with Bush or stay off the floor, as needed; he can vote with Dems if he wants to otherwise, and Bush and RSCC stay out of his race. He thinks done deal, very few fingerprints to be found on it. [my emphasis]
Here's another scenario I hadn't considered. Not voting to break the filibuster doesn't necessarily equate to voting to preserve it. If, in the above example, those four 'Pubbies punt, it's equivalent to a 96-member senate in which the GOP has a 51-45 edge. Forty-eight becomes the dividing line, in which case Hagel and Collins could defect outright and Fristy would still have a 49-47 edge.
I'll eat last week's shorts before I'll believe Ben Nelson will switch sides on this. And, indeed, the whole scenario above sounds more than a little far-fetched, if only because it implies a level of inventiveness and creativity that I have never credited to any Republican leader. But I'll take it with a side of fries if it means dunselizing the RINOs and breaking this political Gustav line.
Otherwise, the last Rubicon beyond which the final vestiges of American democracy will functionally perish will have been crossed. And Republican governance will die with it.
[HT: Double H]
posted by JASmius at 11:56 AM
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