Mark Twain Was A Republican

That's a reference to the irascible author's famous retort to his premature obituary, "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." I don't do that many literary references, so I try to make the ones I do post good ones.

J-Pod joins the growing number of center-right skeptics of the conventional wisdom that the GOP is "doomed" in November. And Jay Cost shoots down two of that CW's biggest justifications, the generic ballot poll and the "right track/wrong track" poll, neither of which are worth John Nance Garner's "bucket of warm spit" as predictors of congressional election outcomes.

Personally I'll stick with my predictions of no change in the Senate and a two seat GOP loss in the House unless and until there is compelling actual "horserace" polling data of likely voters by reputable polling organizations indicating otherwise.

I called the 2004 presidential election within a percentage point a full year before the ballots were cast. So I'm the closest thing to omniscience you're gonna get.